--- Full Article Enclosed ---
You
have received this Special Report as a member of our free email list.
To access further analysis of the situation as it develops, join STRATFOR.
Special Report: Officials Claim Positive Signs on Japanese Reactor
New developments at Japan’s earthquake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear
reactor No. 1 may suggest positive signs for authorities’ efforts to
contain the problem. But many dangers and risks remain.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said that while an
explosion did occur at the plant, it did not damage the steel container
around reactor No.1, where emergency workers are still struggling to
cool down the reactor core after nuclear fuel rods were damaged
following the failure of cooling systems due to the earthquake damage
and short power supply. Edano said the explosion did not occur within
the reactor container and thus did not lead to a large leak of
radioactive material. The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency claims
that radiation levels support the view that there has been no breach of
the container around the reactor, though they have risen as a result of
actions taken to relieve pressure in the container by releasing
radioactive steam.
If accurate, these would be positive
developments for the attempt to avert a meltdown in the reactor core. A
number of nuclear engineers and experts interviewed in the press have
also suggested that the explosion at the nuclear plant was not caused by
a breach of the reactor itself, but rather involved the sudden release
of hydrogen, which Edano confirmed, saying the hydrogen had been trapped
between the reactor core and the surrounding containment structure, and
exploded when released and mixed with oxygen. The government did not
call for an expansion of the evacuation area of 20 kilometers (about 12
miles) around the two plants, and the fact that the evacuation zone has
not been expanded is a positive sign.
It is too early to say, however, that a catastrophe has been averted.
The nuclear safety agency said the Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO),
which operates the nuclear plant, had succeeded in relieving pressure,
but confirmed that some of the nuclear fuel had melted and that further
depressurizing was necessary to continue to contain the reactor heat and
pressure. TEPCO claims it is continuing to pump sea water and boric
acid into the reactor container in order to substitute for the failed
cooling process. Edano estimated it would take five to 10 hours to fill
the container and 10 days to complete the process of cooling.
A number of questions remain. For instance, Edano claimed radiation
levels were decreasing around the area, whereas the nuclear safety
agency pointed to the fact that the release of steam to depressurize the
reactor resulted in increased radiation levels. Other questions include
the nature of the earlier explosion and whether it is true that the
container was not damaged; whether radiation levels are as negligible as
the government says; whether pressure in the reactor is indeed
dropping; the sustainability of the cooling effort which is using
batteries due to the lack of electricity; and the status of the
Fukushima Daini reactors that were also reported to have had cooling
malfunctions (water levels and radiation levels there last appeared to
show no cause for worry). Thus while the official statements suggest
some progress, potentially making this incident more similar to Three
Mile Island than Chernobyl, nevertheless details are sparse and the
situation remains precarious.
Follow our coverage »
