Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Mar. 13, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

TSR wishes all readers in Japan safe and sound!

Is the U.S. Abandoning Taiwan?

US Academic Draws Heavy Fire for Article By J. Michael Cole(Taipei Times, Mar. 8, 2011) Criticism of an article by George Washington University professor Charles Glaser in the current issue of Foreign Affairs magazine was evident, as rebuttals to his article were published in two influential publications.

Taiwan-Philippines Diplomatic Row

Philippines Deports Taiwanese Fraud Suspect Back to Taiwan
(CNA, Mar. 9, 2011) With relations between Taiwan and the Philippines remaining tense over a deportation row that erupted last month, the Philippines Bureau of Immigration deported a Taiwanese suspect involved in a cross-Taiwan Strait fraud scheme back to Taiwan.

Philippines Replaces Immigration Chief to Solve Row with Taiwan
(CNA, Mar. 10, 2011) The Philippine government announced the replacement of its immigration chief in an apparent attempt to resolve a row with Taiwan over the deportation of Taiwanese nationals suspected of fraud to China.

Cross-Strait Issues

DPP’s New Think Tank Willing to Have Dialogue with China
(CNA, Mar. 9, 2011) The Democratic Progressive Party said its newly formed think tank had an “open-minded” attitude toward invitations for dialogue from Chinese institutes or organizations.

MAC Head Reiterates the Country’s China Policy
(China Post, Mar. 11, 2011) MAC chairwoman reiterated the country's long-running guideline toward Beijing, which is both sides do not deny each other's right to govern, even if they don't recognize the respective governments.

U.S. Policy and U.S.-China Engagement

Obama’s Tightrope By Joseph S. Nye(Project Syndicate, Mar. 13, 2011) Balancing hard-power relations with governments with soft-power support for democracy is like walking a tightrope. The Obama administration has wobbled in this balancing act, but thus far it has not fallen off.

US Comfortable with Improved Cross-Taiwan Strait Ties: AIT Head
(CNA, Mar. 9, 2011) The United States encourages increased cross-Taiwan Strait dialogue and is not nervous about warming ties between Taiwan and China, the top U.S. diplomat in Taiwan said.

The U.S. Policy of Extended Deterrence in East Asia: History, Current Views and Implications By Richard C. Bush III (Brookings, March, 2011) Given the uncertainty about Chinese, North Korean, and U.S. intentions, some American allies proposed the creation of a mechanism akin to the nuclear planning group in NATO, a body where the alliance’s nuclear and non-nuclear powers discuss how nuclear weapons might be used in a conflict.

A New Job in Beijing for Secretary of Commerce
(New York Times, Mar. 8, 2011) President Obama plans to nominate Gary F. Locke, the commerce secretary and one of the highest-ranking Chinese-Americans in the administration, as the next American ambassador to China.

Locke’s Economic Focus Raises Questions for Taiwan By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Mar. 11, 2011) Locke, 61, is primarily interested in increasing US business with Beijing and has very little expertise in what analysts refer to as the “geopolitical dimension of the relationship.”

PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales

Implications of China’s Military Evacuation of Citizens from Libya By Gabe Collins and Andrew S. Erickson (China Brief 11(4), Mar. 10, 2011) The deployments signal that as the Chinese military becomes more proficient in long-range operations, it will increasingly be able to scale-up deployments if necessary.

Military Delegates Call for National Maritime Strategy to Protect Expanding Interests By Russell Hsiao (China Brief 11(4), Mar. 10, 2011) Military delegates attending this year's meeting have called on China's top policy planners to defend the country's territorial integrity and expanding maritime interests by developing a national maritime strategy, and possibly stationing troops or constructing military installations on disputed islets.

China Says U.S. Must Stop Taiwan Arms Sales (Reuters, Mar. 6, 2011) The United States will put improved relations with Beijing at risk if it does not stop selling arms to Taiwan, China’s Foreign Minister said.

Taiwan to Cut 9,200 Troops Amid Warm Ties with PRC
(Taipei Times, Mar. 8, 2011) The reduction is part of a five-year plan aimed at trimming the size of Taiwan’s armed forces by 60,000, or more than 20 percent from the present level of 275,000 troops.

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

Taiwan Opposition Leader Declares for President
(AP, Mar. 10, 2011) Taiwan's opposition leader has formally announced she will stand for president.

Election Season Returns to Taiwan: Prospects for Taiwan’s National Elections in 2012 By Dafydd Fell (Brookings, March, 2011) While we cannot rule out a DPP victory, the KMT is in a more advantageous position at this point to retain the presidency and control of the Legislative Yuan.

Taiwan and India Begins Exploring Feasibility of a Free Trade Agreement (CNA, Mar. 9, 2011) India and Taiwan have begun work on a feasibility study to pave the way for the opening of formal talks on a free trade agreement (FTA), India's Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao said.

'Jasmine Revolution' and China's Domestic Issues

China Tracks Foreign Journalists By Sharon LeFraniere and Edward Wong (New York Times, Mar. 7, 2011) The spread of revolution in the Middle East has prompted the authorities to track and detain foreign reporters in the same manner as political dissidents.

China Vows No Western-Style Political Reforms
(AP, Mar. 10, 2011) never adopt multiparty democracy or other Western-style political reforms that could challenge the Communist Party's grip on power, the head of the country's national legislature said.

Don’t Look for Jasmine Revolution or Tea in China By Frank Ching(YaleGlobal, Mar. 7, 2011) The tough reaction – combined with recently unveiled Chinese budgets that devote more funds to internal security than external threats – signals a government that doesn’t trust its people or its ability to handle internal disagreements without force.

Dalai Lama Gives Up Political Role By Jim Yardley and Edward Wong(New York Times, Mar. 11, 2011) The Dalai Lama announced that he would formally relinquish his political leadership role in the Tibetan exile government.

China’s Surprise Trade Deficit May Help Nation Parry U.S. Yuan Criticism (Bloomberg, Mar. 10, 2011) China’s efforts to parry U.S. criticism that its currency is undervalued got a boost from a report showing the world’s second-largest economy unexpectedly posted a $7.3 billion trade deficit.

Slowdown in China Is Imminent By Barry Eichengreen(Project Syndicate, Mar. 12, 2011) Are China’s leaders again underestimating their economy’s growth capacity? Or might their forecasts of slower growth just be another Machiavellian ploy to deflect foreign pressure to revalue the yuan? There is reason to think not.

Japan Policy

Japan Quake: China Sets Aside Disputes, Offers Help By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Mar. 12, 2011) The earthquake and tsunami that devastated northern Japan may help temporarily ease Japan's strained relations with China, allowing the two Asian rivals for the moment to look past lingering territorial, economic, military and historical disputes.

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Regards,

Dalton LinEditor, Taiwan Security Research
E-mail: daltonlin@ntu.edu.tw, Taiwan Security Research: taiwansecurity.org