Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Mar. 20, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Japan's 311 Earthquake and Its Aftermath

China’s President Offers Condolences at Japan’s Embassy
(Reuters, Mar. 18, 2011) China’s President Hu Jintao offered condolences to the victims of Japan’s earthquake and tsunami during an unusual visit to the country’s embassy.

Taiwan-US Nuclear Facility Agreement Covers Broad Scope
(Taipei Times, Mar. 19, 2011) Taiwan and the US have recently signed an arrangement to enhance bilateral cooperation on the regulation of the safety and environmental impacts of nuclear facilities in several areas, including sharing information and training safety personnel.

Reeling from Crises, Japan Approaches Familiar Crossroads By Norimitsu Onishi (New York Times, Mar. 20, 2011) The earthquake, whose epicenter was more than 200 miles north of Tokyo, and the resulting nuclear crisis, will change this nation. The open question is how, and how much.

Taiwan-Philippines Diplomatic Row

Philippine Envoy Arrives for 2nd Fence-mending Visit
(CNA, Mar. 14, 2011) Philippine emissary Manuel Roxas II arrived in Taiwan for a second fence-mending visit after bilateral ties were soured by a row over Manila's deportation of 14 Taiwanese fraud suspects to China in early February.

Ma Patches Up Spat with Philippines
(Taipei Times, Mar. 15, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou expressed his gratitude for the effort Manila has made to settle a row over the deportation of a group of Taiwanese fraud suspects from the Philippines to China early last month.

Cross-Strait Issues

Ma Reaffirms ‘Modus Vivendi’ Diplomatic Approach
(CNA, Mar. 15, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou reaffirmed his diplomatic “modus vivendi” policy in a meeting with his Paraguayan counterpart Fernando Lugo, who is on a state visit to Taiwan.

Ma’s Cross-Strait Policy a Limited Success: US Expert By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Mar. 16, 2011) “China has not only withheld support for further expansion of Taiwan’s international space, it has also continued long-standing efforts to squeeze Taiwan’s international space,” said Bonnie Glaser.

U.S. Policy and U.S.-China Engagement

America’s Navy and the Rise of China By George F. Will(Washington Post, Mar. 16, 2011) The scholars differ about the most fundamental question, which is: Will China, for the next three to five decades, concentrate on economic growth and be content to let America bear the burden of policing this?

Rising China Threatens U.S. Clout in Latin America By Stuart Grudgings and Simon Gardner (Reuters, Mar. 16, 2011) China's growing economic stake in the region may one day raise a threat to Washington's strategic dominance as its deep pockets bring new friends.

PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales

India Overtakes China As World’s Top Arms Importer, SIPRI Says
(Bloomberg, Mar. 13, 2011) India replaced China as the world’s top weapons importer, according to a study by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, as it aims to modernize its armed forces and project power through the region.

China Aims New Missile Types at Taiwan: NSB Says
(Taipei Times, Mar. 17, 2011) The DF-16 ballistic missiles not only poses a threat to Taiwan, but could also be used to strike US military bases on Guam and Okinawa.

PRC Missile Could Render PAC-3s Obsolete
(Taipei Times, Mar. 18, 2011) The faster re-entry of a longer-rang missile would greatly reduce the effectiveness of PAC-3 missile interceptors acquired from the US, analysts said.

Taiwan Forced to Square the Circle on National Defense By J. Michael Cole (Taipei Times, Mar. 20, 2011) Several military analysts suggested that, given the plan to downsize the nation’s armed forces, it makes sense to adopt asymmetrical defense solutions.

Taiwan's Domestic Issues

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(UDN, Mar. 11, 2011) If the election were to be held tomorrow, the vote shares would be 37% to 31% between Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen, and 45% to 31% between Ma Ying-jeou and Su Tseng-chang.

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(TVBS, Mar. 11, 2011) If the election were to be held tomorrow, the vote shares would be 41% to 39% between Ma Ying-jeou and Su Tseng-chang, and 43% to 37% between Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen.

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(TVBS, Mar. 15, 2011) If the election were to be held tomorrow, the vote shares would be 38% to 39% between Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ing-wen, and 40% to 40% between Ma Ying-jeou and Su Tseng-chang.

China's Rise and Domestic Issues

China’s Wen: Must Balance Jobs and Inflation
(Reuters, Mar. 14, 2011) China faces a tough task in finding a balance between creating jobs and cooling inflation, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said, denying his government risks the kind of political upheaval that has beset parts of the Middle East.

China and the Libyan Muddle By Peter Lee(Asia Times, Mar. 19, 2011) The most interesting and dangerous element in the no-fly-zone debate is the dawning awareness that ''Responsibility to Protect'' - R2P aka humanitarian intervention in do-gooder jargon - is not just a Western monopoly.

Regional Issues

Westward Ho: Asians March into Africa—Part I By Johan Lagerkvist(YaleGlobal, Mar. 16, 2011) There’s some wariness among Africans about an onslaught of new foreign investors, but Africans are more empowered than in previous centuries to monitor their foreign relations and chart their destiny.

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