Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday, 29 May 2011

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (May 29, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Is US Support of Taiwan Eroding?

China Presses US to Reassess Law on Taiwan Arms Sales By William Ide (VoA, May 22, 2011) During a recent week-long visit to the United States, Chen Bingde, the chief of the general staff of China's People's Liberation Army, or PLA, pressed the United States to end arms to Taiwan.

No Review of U.S. Law on Taiwan Seen Anytime Soon By Phil Stewart (Reuters, May 23, 2011) A top Chinese general says there is interest in Congress in overhauling U.S. policy on arming Taiwan but U.S. lawmakers appear highly unlikely to revise legislation at the core of Sino-U.S. tensions.

US Needs to Put End to ‘One China’ Confusion By Nat Bellocchi
(Taipei Times, May 29, 2011) If the US wants to review the TRA, it needs to strengthen it in order to be more supportive of Taiwan’s existence as a free democracy.

Why Taiwan’s Freedom of Action Continues to Erode By Robert Sutter (PacNet #30, Pacific Forum, CSIS, May 26, 2011) Those many observers in Taiwan and abroad who believe Taiwan has preserved its freedom of action amid a vaguely defined “status quo” are mistaken.

Cross-Strait Issues

How Taiwan Is Benefiting Economically from Recent Thaw in Ties with China By Ralph Jennings (Christen Science Monitor, May 23, 2011) A potential free-trade deal between Taiwan with Singapore may signal that China has stopped warning other countries against doing deals with

Taiwan

Chinese Spies Disguise Themselves As Tourists, Scholars: NSB
(China Post, May 27, 2011)

Taiwan

's top intelligence agency confirmed that it has frequently spotted Chinese intelligence agents attempting to enter the country under the guise of visiting tourists or scholars to collect information.

Most Taiwanese Interested in Working in China: Poll
(China Post, May 27, 2011) 76.81 percent of respondents have either gone to China and returned, are currently working in China, or have a willingness to work in

China

China Plans to Return 14 Taiwanese Fraud Suspects Soon: Official
(China Post, May 27, 2011) The mainland China Minister of Public Security Meng Jianzhu said that Taiwanese suspects in an international telephone fraud case will be repatriated to

Taiwan

U.S.-China Engagement

Envoy-to-be Gary Locke Aimes to Rebalance U.S.-China Trade
(Reuters, May 26, 2011) Gary Locke vowed to win more access to Chinese markets; he said he would also raise concerns about

China

’s human rights record and convince the Chinese to be more helpful in curbing nuclear proliferation.

China Is Key to America’s Afghan Endgame By Anatol Lieven(IHT, May 26, 2011) The affairs of Afghanistan and Pakistan are becoming the biggest test of whether the United States and

China

can cooperate to maintain global peace and stability in the 21st century.

Once Again, U.S. Finds China Isn’t Manipulating Its Currency By Binyamin Applebaum (New York Times, May 28, 2011) The Obama administration said that

China

was not manipulating the value of its currency, choosing once again to avoid any escalation in the long-running trade dispute between the two countries.

PLA and Arms Sales

PLA Developing Joint Operations Capability (Part One): Joint Task Force Experimentation By Kevin McCauley (China Brief 11(9), Jamestown Foundation, May 20, 2011) When fully operationalized and integrated with new weapon systems and technologies, these efforts could significantly enhance the PLA’s joint operations capability for contingency operations in potential conflicts along its continental and maritime periphery.

PLA Announces New Cyber Warfare Unit
(CNA, May 28, 2011) Chinese military officials have for the first time confirmed the establishment of a cyber warfare unit, Chinese media reports said.

Over 100 Lawmakers in US Back Arms Sales to Taiwan
(China Post, May 25, 2011) A senior official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs urged the U.S. government to sell advanced arms to Taiwan, as more than 100 American lawmakers have sponsored a proposal for the transactions.

US Senator Petition for F-16 Sale
(Taipei Times, May 28, 2011) Forty-five out of the 100 senators across party lines signed a letter urging the sale, despite Chinese claims that support for the TRA was in decline.

Taiwan's Domestic Issues

Opinion Poll on President Ma Ying-jeou’s Third Anniversary in Office (TVBS, May 23, 2011) 36% of respondents were satisfied with President Ma’s performance as he approached his third anniversary in office while 49% not.

Survey on President Ma Ying-jeou’s Performance on His Third Anniversary in Office and the Approval Rating of the Cabinet (GVSRC, May 24, 2011) 33.9% of the respondents were satisfied with President Ma’s performance, but 54.3% were not. Meanwhile, 33.8% were content with the cabinet members’ performance while 44.9% not.

Taiwan Opposition Candidate Would Seek Deals with China By Ralph Jennings (VoA, May 26, 2011) If she wins, Tsai is expected to lead what has been a historically anti-China party one cautious step closer to Beijing.

Geopolitics Rule As KMT, DPP Eye Poll Flash Points
(China Post, May 29, 2011) Central Taiwan is definitely one of the key battlefields in the 2012 presidential election, but the two major political parties cannot agree on the region's strategic importance, observers have noted.

Jobless Rate Drops to 31-month Low
(China Post, May 24, 2011) Taiwan's unemployment rate stood at 4.29 percent in April, a 31-month low, announced the Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics.

Taiwan's Foreign Relations

Taiwan Jumps to 27th in Global Peace Index Ranking
(CNA, May 26, 2011)

Taiwan

is ranked 27th in the 2011 Global Peace Index (GPI) released Wednesday, up eight notches from last year.

Health and Foreign Ministries Defend Protest Made at WHA
(China Post, May 24, 2011) Taiwan's health minister and deputy foreign minister defended the protest the country filed in the World Health Assembly in response to criticism from the opposition party that blasted the protest as being too weak.

Global Participation to Be Expanded ‘Within a Year’
(Taipei Times, May 24, 2011) Taiwan could achieve “meaningful participation” in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and International Civil Aviation Organization within a year, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Shen Lyn-shun said.

Taiwan Isolated by Asian Trade Agreements
(Wall Street Journal, May 25, 2011) A warning from a government trade council in Taiwan highlights concerns that the island has become increasingly isolated by the burgeoning network of free trade agreements connecting Asia and the rest of the world.

Taiwan Steps Up FTA Race By Jens Kastner(Asia Times, May 26, 2011) Singapore has begun talks on a FTA with

Taiwan

, making the city-state the first nation that doesn't recognize Taiwanese statehood to dare such a move. The hoped-for pact is pregnant with more political than economic significance.

China's Rise and Domestic Issues

China Crisis Over Yangtze River Drought Forces Drastic Dam Measures By Jonathan Watts (Guardian, May 25, 2011) The drastic measure comes amid warnings of power shortages and highlights the severity of the dry spell in the Yangtze delta, which supports 400 million people and 40% of China's economic activity.

Series of Blasts Leaves at Least 2 Dead in Southern Chinese City
(New York Times, May 27, 2011) At least two people were killed and six injured by three explosions within an hour on Thursday at different government office buildings in a city in southern China.

Report: Some Areas in China under Martial Law After Protests
(CNN, May 28, 2011) In an apparent response to days of protests, Chinese authorities have declared martial law in parts of the northeast's inner Mongolia autonomous region, according to Amnesty International.

Regional Issues

South China Sea Oil Rush Heightens Conflict Risk As U.S. Emboldens Vietnam By Daniel Ten Kate (Bloomberg, May 27, 2011) Vietnam and the Philippines are pushing forward oil and gas exploration projects in areas of the South China Sea claimed by China, sparking a fresh clash in one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors.