Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

---Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Sep. 11, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Cross-Strait Issues

Grouper Farmer Calls on DPP Not to Reel in Industry’s Growth After ECFA (China Post, Sep. 8, 2011) At the moment, up to 80 percent of grouper farmers are DPP supporters, but they have kept silent after benefiting from the ECFA.

Official Hints at 7th High-Level Cross-Strait Talks
(CNA, Sep. 9, 2011) The seventh institutionalized high-level conference between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait may take place in the Chinese city of Tianjin Sept.28 or Sept. 29 at the earliest, an official familiar with cross-strait affairs said.

WikiLeaks: China, Ma Use Same Phrasing
(Taipei Times, Sep. 10, 2011) A leaked US diplomatic cable shows that Chinese academics praised President Ma Ying-jeou’s use of zhonghua minzu to describe the “Chinese nation,” adding that Beijing had also adopted the formulation instead of “one China.”

WikiLeaks: China Does Not Support ‘Mutual Non-denial’: Cable
(Taipei Times, Sep. 11, 2011) The “mutual non-denial” concept advocated by President Ma Ying-jeou was not supported by Chinese officials and academics who were simply “not denying that for now,” several US cables released by WikiLeaks showed.

China’s Hu Jintao ‘Patient, ‘Pragmatic’ on Taiwan, Lee Kuan Yew Says in Cable (Taipei Times, Sep. 11, 2011) Lee Kuan Yew said Chinese President Hu Jintao appeared “patient” in moving toward the goal of bringing Taiwan into the Chinese fold, an approach that was deemed a success by Chinese academics, leaked US cables showed.

U.S. Policy and US-China Engagement

China’s Rise Isn’t Our Demise By Joseph R. Biden Jr.(New York Times, Sep. 8, 2011) On issues from global security to global economic growth, we share common challenges and responsibilities — and we have incentives to work together. I am convinced, from nearly a dozen hours spent with Vice President Xi Jinping, that China’s leadership agrees.

China’s Challenge at Sea By Aaron Friedberg(New York Times, Sep. 5, 2011) America’s fiscal woes are placing the country on a path of growing strategic risk in Asia.

Red Dawn By Charles Kenny(Foreign Policy, Sep. 6, 2011) The more China embraces its role as economic heavyweight in an integrated world, the better for the rest of the world -- and perhaps in particular the United States -- in terms of national security and economic opportunity.

US Missile Defense and China: An Exchange By John Warden and He Yuan (PacNet #50, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Sep. 6, 2011) The US government sees an enduring role for a range of relatively limited missile intercept capabilities, designed to protect the US homeland, deployed forces, as well as allies and partners. China, by contrast, questions US motives and is particularly concerned with the potential evolution of the technology.

UN Told to Drop ‘Taiwan Is Part of China’: Cable
(Taipei Times, Sep. 6, 2011) A number of Western governments, with the US in the lead, protested to the UN in 2007 to force the global body and its secretary-general to stop using the reference “Taiwan is a part of China,” a cable recently released by WikiLeaks shows.

WikiLeaks: AIT Urged VISA Waivers for Taiwan
(Taipei Times, Sep. 7, 2011) A leaked US cable shows the AIT strongly suggested that the US grant Taiwan visa-waiver status, saying it was in Washington’s “national interests” and could fend off the “threat” to US predominance in Taiwanese society amid Taipei’s warming ties with Beijing.

Strengthen Ties, Sell Jets, Study Urges By William Lowther(Taipei Times, Sep. 10, 2011) The US should bolster its relationship with Taiwan and sell Taipei the 66 F-16C/D aircraft it has requested, a major new academic study by Nancy Bernkopt Tucker and Bonnie Glaser concludes.

PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales

Assurance Against Invasion, War Doesn’t Include Taiwan: China
(AFP, Sep. 8, 2011) China said it would avoid “invasion, expansion or war” — but not at the expense of its claims on Taiwan — as it seeks to dispel fears over its military build-up and territorial assertiveness.

New Missiles Being Developed: Official
(AFP, Sep. 7, 2011) Taiwan is expected to mass produce a potent new missile system designed to nip a Chinese invasion in the bud by striking airfields and harbors on the mainland, a lawmaker said.

China Firmly Opposes US Sales of F-16s to Taiwan
(Global Times, Sep. 9, 2011) Beijing should send out a clear signal that if the United States sells F-16 aircraft to Taiwan, China will make its most intense response ever, and China-U.S. relations will suffer severe damage.

Sell Taiwan F-16s: US Representative By William Lowther(Taipei Times, Sep. 11, 2011) US Representative Adam Smith, the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, has come out in favor of selling advanced F-16C/D aircraft to Taiwan.

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

Ma Edges Tsai in New TAPOD Poll
(Taipei Times, Sep. 5, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou leads DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen on perceived ability to promote economic development, protect Taiwan against China and lead the country.

Taiwan Opposition Leader Advocates Dumping Old ‘Consensus’ on China By Paul Mozur and Jenny W. Hsu (China Realtime Report, Sep. 6, 2011) Now that formal improvements in trade ties have begun, any break in those talks – and some analysts have predicted at least a year-long freeze in exchanges if Ms. Tsai were to win – would almost certainly be viewed as a step back by investors and businesses alike and would likely cost Ms. Tsai politically.

The DDP and Its Dilemma By Douglas H. Paal(Asia Pacific Brief, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sep. 7, 2011) The dilemma for the DPP is how to win “centrist voters” while not alienating the party’s anti-mainland base.

Su Jia-chyuan Named As Tsai’s Running Mate for Election
(China Post, Sep. 10, 2011) DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen officially announced her selection of Su Jia-chyuan as her running mate in the 2021 presidential election, promising that they would “win back Taiwan.”

WikiLeaks: Taiwan Proposed Joining UNFCCC As ‘Entity’
(Taipei Times, Sep. 7, 2011) The AIT said the “emissions entity” strategy could work for Taiwan in the context of international environmental organizations outside the UN system.

WikiLeaks: AIT Doubts ECFA Impact: Cable Says
(Taipei Times, Sep. 8, 2011) Former AIT director Stephen Young was skeptical of President Ma Ying-jeou’s position that signing ECFA would open the door for Taiwan to pursue FTAs with other partners, a US cable recently released by WikiLeaks showed.

Leaked Cables Cast Doubt on President’s WHA Claims
(Taipei Times, Sep. 8, 2011) The cables released by WikiLeaks suggest Beijing’s heavy involvement in the matter, with its insistence that Taiwan’s international participation be based on the “one China” principle.

Lien’s APEC Appointment Approved by China: Cable
(Taipei Times, Sep. 8, 2011) The cable quoted remarks made by Peking University’s Jia Qingguo to embassy officials that Lien’s participation at APEC was a “big deal.”

WikiLeaks: Beef Imports Top Priority for US and Taiwan: Cable
(Taipei Times, Sep. 9, 2011) The longstanding impasse over US beef imports to Taiwan was an issue addressed in plenty of US diplomatic cables regarding bilateral relationships released by WikiLeaks, with the subject being termed by a top US official on Taiwan as “the highest priority for the White House.”

Highest-level US Trip to Taiwan in Five Years
(AFP, Sep. 10, 2011) US assistant secretary of commerce Suresh Kumar is scheduled to visit Taiwan next week, the highest-level American official to come to the island in over five years, its mission in Taipei said.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

World Bank Chief Affirms China’s Rebalancing
(AFP, Sep. 6, 2011) The head of the World Bank urged China to rebalance its export-driven economy and said taming rising inflation remained the most important challenge for the country in the short term.

The Renminbi: The Political Economy of a Currency By Arthur Kroeber (Foreign Policy, Sep. 7, 2011) China's exchange-rate policy is deeply linked to long-term development goals. The same suspicion of market forces that leads Beijing to pursue an export-led growth policy also means that Beijing is unlikely to be willing to permit the financial market opening required to make the RMB a serious rival to the dollar as an international reserve currency.

China See Surge of Independent Candidates By Keith B. Richburg
(Washington Post, Sep. 9, 2011) All across China, scores of ordinary citizens are challenging the Communist Party’s ironclad grip on political life, launching full-blown campaigns outside its grasp for local “people’s congresses.”

Militant Band Claims Role in Western China Attacks By Michael Wines (New York Times, Sep. 9, 2011) An Islamic group said to be tied to Al Qaeda has claimed responsibility in an online video for recent violent attacks that killed dozens in China’s western Xinjiang region.

Regional Issues

India Concerned Over Military Gap with China By James Lamont(Financial Times, Sep. 6, 2011) Senior Indian military officers have voiced their concerns about a widening gap between India and China’s defense capabilities, as New Delhi falls behind in the modernization of its armed forces.

China’s Chance: How 9/11 Played into Beijing’s Plans in Asia By Mark Mackinnon (Globe and Mail, Sep. 8, 2011) “Sept. 11 made the U.S. start focusing on the Middle East rather than Asia-Pacific, which made China’s international environment less intensive than we expected, which was a good opportunity for China,” said Yuan Peng, director of American Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.