Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Sep. 18, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Cross-Strait Issues

Cross-Strait Peace Deal Plausible: Ma Aide
(China Post, Sep. 13, 2011) “Both sides of the Taiwan Strait will not rule out the possibility of signing a peace agreement in the future as long as it is conducive to Taiwan and doesn't undermine the sovereignty of the Republic of China and the dignity of Taiwan,” President Ma Ying-jeou's top campaign officer King Pu-tsung said.

Presidential Office Denies King’s Remarks on Cross-Strait Meeting
(China Post, Sep. 14, 2011) The National Security Council had never made any announcements regarding preparation toward signing a peace agreement with China, and the president has no plans to meet with the mainland Chinese leader, a presidential office spokesman announced.

HK Helping Beijing’s Agenda: Cables
(Taipei Times, Sep. 13, 2011) According to a cable, Clinton asked for more information on changes in Hong Kong-Taiwan relations, especially about “what specific political agendas, if any, are driving this shift in Hong Kong’s policy” and “Beijing’s role, if any, behind these developing ties.”

Investment Pact with China Still Hung Up Over Arbitration Issue
(CNA, Sep. 18, 2011) Negotiations between Taiwan and China on a bilateral investment protection pact continue to be stalled by a failure to reach a consensus on a potential deal's dispute arbitration mechanism, officials familiar with the issue said.

U.S. Policy

The US Public Wants Disengagement By Bruce Stokes(YaleGlobal, Sep. 14, 2011) Downplaying US presidential candidates’ isolationist pronouncements will belie the underlying sea change taking place among American voters, who are turning their backs on the Afghanistan war, on NATO and on engagement with Europe, while gearing up for a confrontation with China.

Military Balance and Arms Sales

Two MND Jets Crash in Yilan Mountains
(China Post, Sep. 14, 2011) Two aircraft crashed in the mountains of Yilan County around 7:48 p.m., setting the peaks aflame upon impact near the 116.4-kilometer mark of Suhua Highway, local fishermen in the area reported.

Ministry Mum on HF-2Es on Penghu
(Taipei Times, Sep. 14, 2011) Taiwan’s military could deploy surface-to-surface missiles on the Penghu Islands as part of efforts to mount a more credible deterrent capability against China, budgetary documents submitted earlier this month say.

Senators: Selling F-16s to Taiwan Equals Jobs
(Wall Street Journal, Sep. 12, 2011) Sens. John Cornyn and Robert Menendez introduced a bill–the Taiwan Airpower Modernization Act–that would require the Obama administration to sell Taiwan 66 new F-16C/D multi-role fighter jets.

Deputy Speaker Doesn’t Expect F-16 Sale
(AP, Sep. 14, 2011) A close ally of President Ma Ying-jeou said he expects the US will agree only to upgrade the nation’s existing fleet of F-16 jets and not sell Taipei new ones.

Taiwan’s New Jets May Not Fly; Reaction Mixed By Paul Mozur and Jenny W. Hsu (China Realtime Report, Sep. 15, 2011) For the past few months, most analysts have tipped the U.S. to opt to upgrade Taiwan’s 146 aging F-16 A/Bs instead of providing 66 new F-16 C/D jets. Consensus guesswork may be on its way to becoming reality.

China’s Growing Might Adds Urgency to Taiwan Arms Calls By Ben Blanchard and Jonathan Standing (Reuters, Sep. 18, 2011) China’s growing military strength has shifted the balance of power in the Taiwan Strait to Beijing’s advantage, and this will not be materially affected by imminent U.S. arms deal with Taiwan.

2012 Presidential Election and Taiwan's Foreign Relations

ERA Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(ERA Survey Research Center, Sep. 6, 2011) If respondents were to vote tomorrow, 35.2% would vote for Ma Ying-jeou, 28.6%, Tsai Ing-wen, and 14.3%, James Soong.

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(China Times, Sep. 13, 2011) If respondents were to vote tomorrow, 38.8% would vote for Ma Ying-jeou, 31.5%, Tsai Ing-wen, and 22.7%, James Soong.

Taiwan Opposition Candidate, in US, Promises Moderate China Policy (VOA, Sep. 14, 2011) Taiwan's opposition presidential candidate is appealing for the United States to sell the island F-16 jets, but said on a visit to Washington that her party will seek good relations with China if returned to power.

Tsai Vows to Rebuild US Relations
(Taipei Times, Sep. 15, 2011) DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen has pledged to rebuild confidence and reinforce the strategic partnership between the DPP and the US.

Ma’s Party Seizes on US Official’s Taiwan Comments
(AP, Sep. 16, 2011) Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou's party moved quickly to take advantage of comments made by a senior U.S. official casting doubts on his rival's ability to maintain stable relations between the democratic island and mainland China.

Taiwan Opposition Presidential Candidate Open to Unification with China (AP, Sep. 18, 2011) Taiwan’s main opposition presidential candidate has said she is open to the island’s unification with China, providing the issue wins popular support.

Cables Show US’ Role in WHO-China MOU
(Taipei Times, Sep. 12, 2011) Several leaked cables from the AIT show that the US made “considerable effort” in negotiations leading to a secret MOU signed between China and the WHO in 2005, in which Taiwan was referred to as “Taiwan, China,” and repeatedly urged Taiwan not to make the text public.

Taiwan Host Visit of Highest-level US Envoy in Five Years
(VOA, Sep. 14, 2011) U.S. Assistant Commerce Secretary Suresh Kumar is visiting Taiwan this week to promote American exports on an island where people have money to spend.

Beef Issue Pivotal to TIFA Talks: US Official
(CNA, Sep. 16, 2011) A visiting high-ranking U.S. official said that Taiwan's ban on the importation of specific American beef products is a challenging issue that needs to be addressed before talks can resume over the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement between the two sides.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

Secret Bid to Arm Qaddafi Sheds Light on Tensions in China Government By Michael Wines (New York Times, Sep. 12, 2011) Some believe that big state-run weapons companies, with their close ties to the military, easily make end runs around the diplomats in the Foreign Ministry, which negotiates China’s position on international sanctions.

China Ties Aiding Europe to Its Own Trade Goals By Keith Bradsher
(New York Times, Sep. 15, 2011) Premier Wen Jiabao offered to help Europe. But, in an unprecedented move for China, he linked the offer to a potentially onerous demand: that Europe renounce its main legal defense against low-priced Chinese exports.

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

Unraveling China’s “String of Pearls” By Ashley S. Townshend(YaleGlobal, Sep. 16, 2011) Reports that Pakistan invited China to construct a naval base in Gwadar have reignited concerns about Beijing’s strategic ambitions in the Indian Ocean.

India’s Entry into South China Sea Aimed at Countering China: Chinese Analysts (Economic Times, Sep. 18, 2011) Watching warily India’s decision to go ahead with oil exploration cooperation with Vietnam in the South China Sea, Chinese analysts say it is New Delhi’s counter-strategy to checkmate the forays being made by China into its neighborhood.

Cable Shows Japan Official Said Taiwan Part of China
(Taipei Times, Sep. 12, 2011) A US cable released by WikiLeaks shows that Kenji Yamaoka, who was appointed chairman of the National Public Safety Commission in the Cabinet of newly appointed Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, considered Taiwan China’s territory.