Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Sep. 25, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

U.S. to Upgrade Taiwan's Fleet, but No New F-16's

No New F-16’s for Taiwan, but U.S. to Upgrade Fleet By Mark Lander (New York Times, Sep. 19, 2011) The Obama administration has decided not to sell F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan but instead to help it refurbish its existing fleet, prompting criticism in Congress that the United States isbuckling to pressure from China.

China Criticizes US Deal to Upgrade Taiwan F-16s
(AP, Sep. 19, 2011) China expressed its opposition to reports that the United States has decided to upgrade Taiwan's existing fleet of F-16 fighter jets, even though it apparently rejected the island's bid for a more advanced version of the plane.

China Warns US Over Taiwan Arms Sales
(Telegraph, Sep. 22, 2011) China’s top newspaper has warned the United States that it will pay for selling arms to Taiwan through less cooperation from Beijing, continuing a drumbeat of angry words that appears likely to unsettle, yet not derail, relations with Washington.

F-16C/Ds Left Out of Arms Deal: AIT
(CNA, Sep. 22, 2011) The quantity and composition of weapons to be sold by the United States to Taiwan in 2011 will not fall below the levels of previous years, American Institute in Taiwan Chairman Raymond Burghardt said.

MOFA, MND ‘Appreciate’ Arms Sale Despite Lack of New Fighters
(China Post, Sep. 22, 2011) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Defense jointly confirmed that the United States government has rejected Taiwan's proposal to buy 66 new and more advanced F-16C/Ds.

Reactions to the New U.S. Arms Deal with Taiwan

Arms Sale Draws Angry, but Familiar, Reaction By Andrew Jacobs
(New York Times, Sep. 23, 2011) Although official reaction to the deal has yet to play out fully, experts said that early indications suggested that Chinese leaders were carefully calibrating a response that would leave relations between the world’s two largest economies largely unruffled.

US-Taiwan F-16 Sale Aims at Compromise By Matthew Pennington(AP, Sep. 20, 2011) Perhaps just as important, it reflects a degree of U.S. political commitment. The hard reality is that the island's forces cannot match China's, and it would depend on U.S. help if it were to withstand an invasion attempt.

Philippines, Indonesia Dismiss F-16 Worries By Patrick Barta
(Wall Street Journal, Sep. 20, 2011) The Philippines and Indonesia shook off any concerns over a U.S. decision to forego selling new fighter jets to Taiwan, despite fears it could signal a reduction in American support for the region as China expands its military power.

U.S. Faces Rising Risks in Vow to Defend Taiwan By Jeremy Page and Paul Mozur (Wall Street Journal, Sep. 21, 2011) A U.S. decision to sell Taiwan upgrades of old fighter jets, rather than new planes, reflects a fresh reality in the region: All sides are calculating that the island is increasingly indefensible to an attack by China, and are banking on closer economic ties as a path to resolving historic tensions.

Do We Still Care about the Taiwan Relations Act? By Dan Blumenthal and Mike Green (Foreign Policy, Sep. 23, 2011) The Obama administration is getting itself in trouble trying to satisfy both Beijing and the Congress by providing Taiwan with upgrades of its F-16 A/Bs instead of the new F-16 C/Ds Taipei has requested. Administration efforts this week to spin a skeptical Congress about what a great deal this is for our friends in Taipei only made matters worse.

US ‘No’ on Arms Sales Seen As Sign of China’s Clout By Peter Enav(AP, Sep. 24, 2011) Washington’s decision has been described as a slap in the face of a strong ally and is seen as an indication of China’s economic leverage over the US.

Cross-Strait Issues

Taiwan VP: President Wants China Political Talks
(AP, Sep. 25, 2011) Taiwan's president will open political talks with China if he is re-elected to a second term, a U.S. diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks cites Taiwan's vice president as saying.

U.S. Policy and U.S.-China Engagement

US Senate Passes Resolution Backing Taiwan’s ICAO Bid
(CNA, Sep. 23, 2011) The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a resolution in support of Taiwan's observer status in the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), to enable it to play a part in maintaining global air transport security.

Data Theft Case May Test US, China Ties By Erin Ailworth(Boston Globe, Sep. 19, 2011) The situation highlights long-running tensions between the United States and China over protecting intellectual property, from hardware to software to movies on DVDs.

PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales

China to Launch Space Station’s First Module
(AFP, Sep. 20, 2011) China said it will launch its Tiangong-1 space module later this month, marking its first step towards building a Chinese space station.

Taiwan Has Asymmetric Strategy: Yang
(Taipei Times, Sep. 21, 2011) Taiwan is developing “asymmetrical strategies” utilizing unconventional capabilities to counter China’s military buildup, Deputy Minister of National Defense Andrew Yang said.

Taiwan Plans to Request F-35s from US
(Taipei Times, Sep. 20, 2011) Taiwan would be pleased if the US has indeed agreed to help upgrade its fleet of F-16A/B aircraft and plans to move toward selling it the even more sophisticated F-35 model at some point, Deputy Minister of National Defense Andrew Yang said in Richmond, Virginia.

2012 Presidential Election and Taiwan's Foreign Relations

Survey on the Presidential Election in 2012 and the Evaluation of the Presidential Candidates (GVSRC, Sep. 23, 2011) In the scenario of a three-candidate contest, 35.8% of respondents supported the Ma-Wu ticket, 36.0%, the Tsai-Su ticket, and 10.0%, James Soong.

Soong Chooses NTU Professor As Running Mate
(Taipei Times, Sep. 21, 2011) People First Party Chairman James Soong announced that National Taiwan University professor emeritus Lin Ruey-shiung would be his running mate in January’s presidential election.

The 2012 Taiwan Election: Off and Running By Alan D. Romberg (CLM No. 35, Hoover Institution, Sep. 21, 2011) Demonstrating its continued hope that Ma will win reelection, Beijing meanwhile must wrestle with the very real possibility of a Tsai victory and the prospect that freezing cross-Strait relations could ultimately redound to the detriment of its long-term efforts to woo Taiwan toward reunification.

Taiwan-Japan Trade Protection Pact Enlarges Market Openness
(CNA, Sep. 21, 2011) Amid speculation that Taiwan and Japan are close to sealing a trade pact this week, an economic official refused to confirm the date but said more content will be included in the accord.

Taiwan Signs Historic Pact with Japan
(CNA, Sep. 23, 2011) Investors from Taiwan and Japan could expect to be treated as nationals on the other country's ground, as an investment pact between the two, which symbolizes a big step in the Taiwan-Japan relationship, was officially signed in Taipei.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

China Plays Hard Ball By Francois Godement(YaleGlobal, Sep. 19, 2011) European nations deep in debt are playing a dangerous game with China by teasing global markets. Neither borrowers nor would-be rescuers offer transparency about how much European debt China holds.

More Stimulus May Not Be on Option for China By Didi Kirsten Tatlow (IHT, Sep. 22, 2011) Beijing’s main message to the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank is likely to be a pragmatic one: we may be growing, but we have our own worries, so don’t expect much help from us.

Slowdown, Debt Worries in China Add to Global Anxiety By Keith B. Richburg (Washington Post, Sep. 23, 2011) To the long list of global economic anxieties — slow growth and high unemployment in the United States, the debt crisis in the euro zone, instability in the oil-producing Middle East — add a new concern: China.

When Wen Speaks, Who Is Listening? By Russell Leigh Moses(China Realtime Report, Sep. 19, 2011) Premier Wen Jiabao threw himself and his allies back into the stalled conversation about political reform late last week, reviving the question how authentic his commitment to that reform actually is.

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

Shelving Difference While Hedging in the South China Sea By Peter Mattis (China Brief 11(17), Jamestown Foundation, Sep. 16, 2011) Although the rhetoric of these meetings reiterated commitments to peaceful settlement of disputes and pushed economic ties, Hanoi and Manila both sought domestic and foreign means to hedge against Chinese coercion in the South China Sea.

China’s Assertive Behavior—Part One: On “Core Interests” By Michael D. Swaine (CLM No. 34, Hoover Institution, Feb. 22, 2011) The single most dominant theme in Sino-U.S. relations of the past year or more has been the emergence of a more “assertive China.” This article assesses whether, to what extent, and in what manner Beijing is becoming more assertive in several areas of relevance to the United States.

China’s Assertive Behavior—Part Two: The Maritime Periphery By Michael D. Swaine and M. Taylor Fravel (CLM No. 35, Hoover Institution, Sep. 21, 2011) This essay assesses whether, to what degree, and in what ways the PRC has become more assertive along its maritime territories.

It Takes Two to Have “Win-Win” Relations By Mihoko Matsubara(PacNet #54, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Sep. 20, 2011) China is absolutely right: Tokyo must “carefully craft and implement a proper policy” to make relations better. But Beijing has to play its part as well.

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