Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Oct. 9, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

U.S. Senate Takes on Yuan Bill and U.S.-China Engagement

China Can Meet US, Europe Where Their Interests Converge By Zheng Bijian (Christian Science Monitor, Oct. 7, 2011) The promoter of China's 'peaceful rise' argues that China needs a new approach in its relations with the United States and Europe. Beijing should build on common interests, such as investment in each other's countries, stability in global hot spots, and climate change.

U.S. Senator Backs Tough China Trade Moves By Jennifer Steinhauer and Mark Landler (New York Times, Oct. 4, 2011) The Senate voted to move forward with tough trade legislation that would impose tariffs on some Chinese goods to punish Beijing for keeping its currency artificially depressed.

China Says US Currency Bill Would Have Serious Repercussions If Becomes Law (AP, Oct. 4, 2011) China stepped up its criticism of a proposed U.S. law to punish countries with artificially low currencies, saying there would be serious repercussions for the world’s two biggest economies if it is passed.

Boehner Dismisses ‘Dangerous’ Yuan Bill
(AP, Oct. 6, 2011) The Republican leader of the U.S. House of Representatives dismissed a Senate bill that could punish China for undervaluing its currency, saying it was “pretty dangerous” for Congress to tell another country how to run its monetary policy.

Obama Accuses China of ‘Gaming’ Worldwide Trade
(Reuters, Oct. 8, 2011) US President Barack Obama accused China of “gaming” international trade by keeping its currency weak, but was cautious about a bill before the US Senate aimed at pressing Beijing to revalue the yuan.

Holding China to Account By Paul Krugman(New York Times, Oct. 3, 2011) Holding China accountable won’t solve our economic problems on its own, but it can contribute to a solution — and it’s an action that’s long overdue.

The Top 10 Unicorns of China Policy By Daniel Blumenthal(Foreign Policy, Oct. 3, 2011) Much of America's China policy is underpinned by belief in the fantastical, and crafting a better China policy requires us to identify what is imaginary in U.S. thinking about China.

Why Taiwan Matters

Why Taiwan Matters By Kurt M. Campbell(Testimony Before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Oct. 4, 2011) An important part of this turn to Asia is maintaining a robust and multidimensional unofficial relationship with Taiwan and, consistent with this interest is the United States’ strong and enduring commitment to the maintenance of peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

US Pursues Ways to Raise Level of Meetings with ROC: Official
(CNA, Oct. 6, 2011) The United States has maintained regular consultations with Taiwan at senior levels and is actively exploring ways to raise the level of such engagements, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs said.

Visa Waiver Inclusion Nearing: US Official
(CNA, Oct. 6, 2011) Taiwan's application for inclusion in the United States' visa waiver program is continuing to head toward the finish line and progress will be in sight in the very near term, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs said.

Cross-Strait Issues

January Poll Winner Will Face Hurdles in China Talks: Su Chi
(Taipei Times, Oct. 8, 2011) Because of domestic differences in Taiwan, the winner of next year’s presidential election will face more hurdles in talks with China because of a diminished political mandate, former National Security Council secretary-general Su Chi said.

China Urged to End Vetoes of Bids to Join UN Bodies
(CNA, Oct. 7, 2011) Premier Wu Den-yih said that China should not veto Taiwan's bids for membership of the International Civil Aviation Organization and the World Health Organization as both organizations concern the fundamental human rights of safety and health.

China’s President Urges Unification with Rival Taiwan; Jiang Makes Rare Appearance (AP, Oct. 9, 2011) China’s president used the centennial of a revolution that ended imperial rule to make an appeal to further relations with Taiwan, saying they should move beyond the history that divides them and focus on common economic and cultural interests.

Military Balance and Arms Sales

Talking with Taiwanese Soldiers By Paul Mozur(China Real Time Report, Oct. 4, 2011) While much of the recent discussion about the balance of military power across the Taiwan Strait has revolved around the strength of Taiwan’s arsenal, an equally important debate concerns morale among the island’s soldiers and its transfer from a conscription military to a volunteer one.

Local UAVs to be Commissioned Next Year: Report
(CNA, Oct. 5, 2011) Locally developed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) will be commissioned early next year as part of the military’s efforts to build up asymmetric/innovative defense capabilities, local media reported.

U.S. Says Mulling Further Taiwan Arms Sales
(Reuters, Oct. 4, 2011) The Obama administration is weighing fresh arms sales to Taiwan as part of a sweeping effort to deter any Chinese attack on the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as its own, administration officials told Congress.

2012 Presidential Election and ROC Centenary

TVBS Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(TVBS, Sep. 28, 2011) In the scenario of a three-way election, KMT’s Ma-Wu ticket would get 40% of votes, DPP’s Tsai-Su ticket, 33%, and PFP’s James Soong, 14%.

Ma Increases Lead against DPP’s Tsai, Poll Indicates
(Taipei Times, Oct. 3, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou has increased his lead over DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen in the January presidential election both in a head-to-head battle and a possible three-way race, a survey by the Taiwanese Association for Pacific Ocean Development showed.

Opinion Poll on 2012 Presidential Election
(China Times, Oct. 6, 2011) In a three-way election, the Ma-Wu ticket would get 38.5% of votes, the Tsai-Su ticket, 35.1%, and James Soong, 12.1%.

Ma Lays Out His Policy Vision for ‘Golden Decade’
(Taipei Times, Oct. 4, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou outlined his policy vision to achieve social justice and a clean government as part of his goal of a “golden decade” of national development.

Ma Pledges to Enhance Cultural, Educational Focus
(China Post, Oct. 7, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou announced goals to expand the National Palace Museum and to exempt junior high students from high school entrance exams within the coming ten years.

Hu Frets Over Taiwanese Election By Yvonne Su(Asia Times, Oct. 4, 2011) When Taiwan voters go to the polls to elect their new president and vice president next January, they may once again prove Beijing's efforts to leverage Taiwan's domestic politics are in vain, a development that could affect Chinese President Hu Jintao's political legacy.

Soong Bid Will Hurt Ma: Ex-Singapore PM
(China Post, Oct. 9, 2011) James Soong's participation in Taiwan's 2012 presidential campaign will not yield victory; instead, he will partition other candidates' votes, especially that of the Kuomintang's Ma Ying-jeou's, former prime minister of the Republic of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew said.

At 100, Taiwan’s Government Faces Uncertain Future By Peter Enav (AP, Oct. 7, 2011) Spurned by the international community, ignored in the land of its founding, and ridiculed by many of its own people, the Republic of China celebrates the 100th anniversary of its birth, trying to stave off extinction.

Four First for Taiwan By Philip Yang(Korea Times, Oct. 9, 2011) As the ROC approaches the start of its second century, we are pushing forward with our vision for a “golden decade,” creating “value-added happiness” for our people and gaining a greater international role for the country.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

Profound Shift As China Marches Back to Mao By John Garnaut(Sydney Morning Herald, Oct. 9, 2011) China is heading into a new Mao-inspired epoch of socialism and nationalism, says the founder of China’s most powerful leftist internet platform.

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

The Advantages of an Assertive China: Responding to Beijing’s Abrasive Diplomacy By Thomas J. Christensen (Foreign Affairs, March/April, 2011) Rather than a simple assertion of its newfound power, China's negative diplomacy seems rooted in a strange mix of confidence on the international stage and insecurity at home.

Chinese Call for War Was Aimed at Oil: Academic
(Taipei Times, Oct. 9, 2011) The op-ed may have the one more immediate goal to scare Western oil companies away from Vietnam and from the Philippines and to deter them from concluding deals with them.

Social Media: Building Mutual Trust Between China and Japan By Yang Yi (PacNet #57, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Oct. 6, 2011) The use of alternative media sources beyond the CCp’s control can’t fully determine Chinese views of Japan. They can, however, help the people of China to get to know more about Japan and acquire a more complete picture.