Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Oct. 23, 2011)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

President Ma Considers Peace Treaty with China in 10 Years

Taiwan President Considers Peace Treaty with China in 10 Years
(Reuters, Oct. 17, 2011) Taiwan may consider a peace treaty with political rival China in 10 years, but only if the Taiwanese people agree and there is sufficient trust between the two sides, President Ma Ying-jeou said.

Ma Peace Pact ‘Dangerous’ Step to Reunification: DPP
(China Post, Oct. 19, 2011) DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen blasted incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou's idea of signing a peace agreement with China within the next decade, calling the proposal a “dangerous” endeavor, both undemocratic and divisive.

Ma Rejects DPP Criticism of Potential Cross-Strait Accord
(CNA, Oct. 19, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou said that cross-strait peace is an issue that must be faced and that the signing of a cross-strait peace accord would not represent negotiating unification with the mainland.

Taiwan’s President Says Any Possible Peace Treaty with China May Need to Go to Public Vote (AP, Oct. 20, 2011) Taiwan’s president said that voters on the island may need to weigh in on any future peace treaty with China, a statement that appears to signal a retreat from an earlier declaration on the treaty idea.

Tsai Urges Amendment to Require Referendum Before Bilateral Talks (China Post, Oct. 22, 2011) DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen yesterday called for an amendment requiring a referendum before bilateral political negotiations.

Ma’s Peace Pact Idea Is a ‘Fake Issue’: James Soong
(Taipei Times, Oct. 22, 2011) President Ma Ying-jeou’s proposal of a referendum on a possible cross-strait peace accord is a “fake issue,” People First Party Chairman James Soong said.

Ma’s China-Taiwan Peace Pact Balancing Act By Aries Poon(China Real Time Report, Oct. 21, 2011) Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou this week performed a careful balancing act on the highly charged issue of relations with China, as he faces challengers from both ends of the spectrum. And in the process, analysts say, he may have sent a hint to Beijing as well as to voters about what growing ties between the two might involve.

Cross-Strait Issues

Deal with China Over Investments Needs More Time
(Taipei Times, Oct. 19, 2011) SEF Chairman Chiang Pin-kung confirmed that a bilateral investment protection pact would not be signed in the upcoming round of cross-strait talks.

Cross-Strait Talks Seal Nuclear Safety Pact
(China Post, Oct. 21, 2011) Sessions during the seventh round of high-level cross-strait talks in Tianjin, China sealed a pact on nuclear safety but shelved the two other key issues of industrial cooperation and investment protection.

China Warns Taiwan Opposition Trade Deal at Risk
(Reuters, Oct. 20, 2011) Chinese officials in charge of dealing with Taiwan issued a veiled warning to the island's pro-independence opposition that landmark trade deals signed over the last few years were at risk if they did not change their stance.

US Policy and U.S.-China Engagement

US Forum Debates Issue of ‘Abandoning’ Taiwan By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Oct. 20, 2011) A Washington conference has been told that a minority view supporting the US’ “abandonment” of Taiwan is getting a lot of attention because there is a growing belief that China’s importance outweighs any affinity or obligation to its Asian ally.

Imagined in America By Thomas L. Friedman(New York Times, Oct. 19, 2011) I really hope the people pushing this bill do not give up. I really hope the people pushing this bill do not succeed. And, I really hope no one thinks this legislation will make any sustainable dent in our unemployment problem.

China-Bashing Nothing New By Keith B. Richburg(Washington Post, Oct. 19, 2011) In this early stage of the U.S. presidential campaign, China seems to be on all the candidates’ minds and in their messages — and in ways that make many Chinese cringe.

Military Balance and Arms Sales

“Strong Indignation,” but Limited Retribution: China’s Response to U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan By Michael S. Chase (China Brief 11(19), Jamestown Foundation, Oct. 14, 2011) At a more substantive level, undermining Washington’s willingness to bear the consequences of future arms sales to Taiwan remains an important Chinese objective.

Taiwan Rues West’s Fixation on PLA Toys By Jens Kastner(Asia Times, Oct. 18, 2011) The hype on China’s military advances not only ignores more threatening but less novel People's Liberation Army projects, it also enhances perceptions that Taiwan lags too far behind Beijing militarily to be worth defending.

Upgrading Taiwan’s Defense By Richard Bush(LA Times, Oct. 19, 2011) Taipei's disappointment belies the fact that this decision constitutes a real contribution to Taiwan's security and underscores the U.S. commitment to Taiwan.

Taiwan's 2012 Presidential Electoin

Minority Leader Vows to Hold on If Endorsement Target Met
(CNA, Oct. 21, 2011) PFP Chairman James Soong reiterated his determination to push on with his 2012 presidential bid, saying that once he reached his target for endorsements, he would definitely join the race and run to the end.

China Nervously Watching Election Campaign By Ben Blanchard(Reuters, Oct. 18, 2011) China is steeling itself for another presidential election in Taiwan, hoping a victory for the KMT enables even better ties but also girding for an opposition win that could inflame tensions.

Central Taiwan Seen As Election Key As China Frets By James Pomfret (Reuters, Oct. 21, 2011) Taiwan’s semi-rural central plains is the battleground in a presidential poll that will set the tone of the island’s prickly relations with China for the next four years.

Outgoing Taiwan Pollster Claims Results of ’12 Election Surveys Ruffled Feathers (AP, Oct. 18, 2011) The imbroglio over last week's closure of the company's 5 1/2-year-old polling center reflects the challenges local pollsters face in building credibility and publishing accurate polls in Taiwan.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

The Leadership Secrets of Bismarck: Imperial Germany and Competitive Authoritarianism By Michael Bernhard (Foreign Affairs, Oct. 16, 2011) China is hardly the first great power to make authoritarian development look attractive--Wilhelmine Germany did it with ease. But can even successful nondemocratic political systems thrive and evolve peacefully over the long run? The answer depends on whether authoritarian elites can tolerate sharing power.

Chinese Succession Highlights Military’s Role By Christopher Bodeen (AP, Oct. 17, 2011) Maneuvering over China's leadership succession is providing an opportunity for the powerful military to exert greater influence over decision-making, potentially dragging the government into a more confrontational stance with its neighbors and the U.S.

China, ASEAN Move Closer to Yuan
(Wall Street Journal, Oct. 22, 2011) China is working on an agreement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to settle trade in yuan, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.

Regional Issues

Russia’s Eastern Anxieties By Raffaello Pantucci and Alexandros Petersen (IHT, Oct. 18, 2011) While cordial, an unspoken undertone to the meetings was Russian concern about growing Chinese influence in the former Soviet Union and particularly Central Asia.

MOFA Chief Yang Supports Deploying Missiles to Taiping
(China Post, Oct. 20, 2011) Foreign Minister Timothy Yang expressed support for a proposal by lawmakers to strengthen Taiwan's defensive capabilities on Taiping Island in the South China Sea, including the deployment of missiles.