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Detection Points in the Terrorist Attack Cycle
Last week's Security Weekly discussed the fact that terrorism is a
tactic used by many different classes of actors and that, while the
perpetrators and tactics of terrorism may change in response to shifts
in larger geopolitical cycles, these changes will never result in the
end of terrorism. Since that analysis was written, there have been
jihadist-related attacks in Afghanistan, Nigeria, Yemen and Pakistan, an
assassination attempt against the president of Abkhazia, and a failed
timed-incendiary attack against the Athens subway. (The latter incident,
which militant anarchists claimed, reinforces that jihadists are not
the only ones who practice terrorism.)
But while terrorism is a continuing concern, it can be understood, and measures can be taken to thwart terrorist plots and mitigate the effects of attacks. Perhaps the most important and fundamental point to understand about terrorism is that attacks do not appear out of nowhere. Individuals planning a terrorist attack follow a discernable cycle -- and that cycle and the behaviors associated with it can be observed if they are being looked for. We refer to these points where terrorism-related behavior can be most readily observed as vulnerabilities in the terrorist attack cycle. Read More »
Comments? Send them to responses@stratfor.com
But while terrorism is a continuing concern, it can be understood, and measures can be taken to thwart terrorist plots and mitigate the effects of attacks. Perhaps the most important and fundamental point to understand about terrorism is that attacks do not appear out of nowhere. Individuals planning a terrorist attack follow a discernable cycle -- and that cycle and the behaviors associated with it can be observed if they are being looked for. We refer to these points where terrorism-related behavior can be most readily observed as vulnerabilities in the terrorist attack cycle. Read More »
Comments? Send them to responses@stratfor.com
