Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Mar. 4, 2012)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Chinese Legislature to Meet

Chinese Legislature Meets Amid Economic Concerns, Transition to New Generation of Leaders (AP, Mar. 4, 2012) China’s annual legislative session opens Monday amid a challenging leadership transition, economic fears and a day after the country announced a defense spending boost that reflects concern over a renewed U.S. focus on Beijing’s Asia-Pacific backyard.

Legalizing the Tools of Repression By Nicholas Bequelin(New York Times, Mar. 1, 2012) Whether Xi Jinping and the new leadership will be more inclined than Hu to address public concerns and engage in reforms remains anyone’s guess. But if the security services solidify their power further, they may pose a greater challenge to reform down the line.

Two Chiefs’ Styles Make for China Congress Buzz By Jeremy Page(Wall Street Journal, Mar. 2, 2012) The Communist Party's inner debate about China's future is encapsulated in the appearance of two provincial leaders at the National People’s Congress next week, both candidates for promotion to the party's top body in the autumn, who represent contrasting development paths.

Cross-Strait Issues

DPP Must Get Serious about China By Liu Shih-chung(Taipei Times, Feb. 27, 2012) The fact is that the complexities of China’s domestic and external developments is precisely what the DPP leadership should study, and in detail. They should then make their views public, in a balanced way.

DPP Should Shift Focus, Re-engage Beijing By Hung Chi-kune(Taipei Times, Feb. 28, 2012) Outgoing DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen said that party members should gain a better understanding of China and use interactions with China to help the nation find a solution for dealing with Beijing. Tsai’s statement is a valuable gift to the DPP.

DPP Happy to Talk to China, but with No Preconditions
(Taipei Times, Mar. 2, 2012) The DPP said that it is willing to push for a closer engagement with Beijing “under the precondition that no political preconditions or barriers are set.

China to Promote Cultural Identity to Taiwan’s Youth
(Reuters, Mar. 3, 2012) A senior Chinese official pledged to reach out to the youth of Taiwan to get them to identify more closely with China, as Beijing frets about pro-independence sentiment on the self-ruled democratic island it claims as its own.

Taiwan Eyes Sealing Non-early Harvest ECFA in 2 Years
(CNA, Mar. 2, 2012) An economics official expressed hope that Taiwan and China can reach a conclusion within two years on tariff reduction or exemption talks on items that are not included on the ECFA early harvest list.

U.S. Policy

China-Taiwan Tensions Could Loom Over U.S. ‘Pivot’ to Asia: View
(Editorial, Bloomberg, Feb. 27, 2012) The most important step the U.S. could take would be to reconsider its hands-off attitude toward resolving cross-strait tensions. The so-called “Six Assurances” that President Ronald Reagan offered to Taipei in 1982 essentially leaves the U.S. hostage to Chinese and Taiwanese behavior.

PLA and Military Balance

China Boosts Defense Budget 11 Percent After U.S. “Pivot” By Chris Buckley (Reuters, Mar. 4, 2012) The increase announced by parliament spokesman Li Zhaoxing will bring official outlays on the People's Liberation Army to 670.3 billion yuan ($110 billion) for 2012, after a 12.7 percent increase last year and a near-unbroken string of double-digit rises across two decades.

Taiwan Hit by Another Case of Spying
(Taipei Times, Mar. 1, 2012) The Taiwanese military was once again rocked by reports that one of its own had engaged in espionage for China, a little more than a year after a high-profile spy was arrested.

US Commander Predicts Stable Cross-Strait Relations
(CNA, Mar. 4, 2012) Adm. Robert F. Willard, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, said that the possibility of conflicts erupting between Taiwan and China has dropped and that this trend will likely continue, especially after President Ma Ying-jeou was recently reelected.

Navy to Get Two Osprey Class Minehunters from US: Report
(AFP, Feb. 28, 2012) Taiwan will receive two coastal minehunter ships from the United States this year as part of an arms deal that has upset Washington's ties with Beijing, media reported.

Ministry Denies Plan to Buy German Submarines
(Taipei Times, Feb. 27, 2012) The Ministry of National Defense denied a magazine report saying Taiwan plans to procure four German-made -diesel-electric submarines that were originally intended for Greece.

U.S. Beef Row and Taiwan's Foreign Relations

Good Ties with US, Japan, China Key Policy Goal: Ma
(CNA, Mar. 3, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou said that maintaining friendly relations with the United States, Japan and China is one of Taiwan's major foreign policy goals.

US Trade Undersecretary Postpones Visit
(Taipei Times, Mar. 2, 2012) The AIT announced that a visit to Taipei by US Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade Francisco Sanchez had been postponed, amid an ongoing controversy over the import of US beef containing ractopamine.

US Security Team to Arrive for Visa Waiver Inspection: AIT
(China Post, Mar. 3, 2012) The de facto United States embassy in Taiwan confirmed that a team from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security is scheduled to arrive in Taipei next week to conduct a working level review of Taiwan's visa-waiver application.

Taiwan Denies Suspension of Military Exchange with Singapore
(CNA, Feb. 27, 2012) The defense ministry said that Taiwan maintains stable ties with Singapore, denying a local report that bilateral military exchanges have been suspended by Singapore.

New Japan Envoy Is Shen Ssu-tsun: MOFA
(Taipei Times, Feb. 29, 2012) Taipei informed Tokyo that Representative to Japan John Feng would be replaced by Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Shen Ssu-tsun, a government statement said.

China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues

A Call for Beijing to Loosen Its Grip on the Economic Reins By David Barboza (New York Times, Feb. 28, 2012) A new study by the World Bank and a Chinese government research organization warns that the country’s economic growth is likely to diminish over the next few decades unless China alters its development model and rethinks the role of government in managing the economy. China 2030

Politics Shelter China’s Economy By Nick Edwards(Reuters, Feb. 28, 2012) The politics of China’s need for a smooth leadership succession this year provide the best protection against a hard economic landing, regardless of stuttering exports, faltering capital flows, local government debts and lingering inflation risks.

Li Promises Sable Growth
(China Daily, Mar. 2, 2012) China will promote "innovation and opening-up" to maintain long-term, stable and fast economic growth, Vice-Premier Li Keqiang said during a meeting with Robert Zoellick, the president of the World Bank, in Beijing.

China Takes New Step on Yuan Liberalization By Lingling Wei(Wall Street Journal, Feb. 28, 2012) In a new move to promote the international use of China's currency, banks in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen have been given approval to launch cross-border yuan-remittance services for individuals.

Nigeria Tilts Its Reserves to Yuan
(Wall Street Journal, Mar. 2, 2012) Nigeria's central bank has added the equivalent of $500 million in Chinese yuan to its reserves and plans to buy seven times that amount, in a shift that underscores booming commerce between China and the African continent.

Deadly Clashes Erupt in Western China By Edward Wong(New York Times, Mar. 1, 2012) An outburst of violence in a remote desert region of western China has underscored the tensions over Chinese rule in ethnic-minority areas just days before an important national policy meeting in Beijing.

Chinese Who Ousted Village Leaders Head to Polls in Test of Grass-roots Democracy (AP, Mar. 3, 2012) Villagers who rebelled against officials they accused of stealing their farmland voted for new leaders on Saturday in a much-watched election reformers hope will promote democracy as a way to settle many of the myriad disputes besetting China.

Protest’s Success May Not Change China By Michael Wines
(New York Times, Mar. 4, 2012) Some observers of China’s politics say they believe that Wukan is not a template for change, but a feel-good moment in a sophisticated system that handles citizen unrest on a case-by-case basis — iron fist here, velvet glove there.

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

North Koreans Agree to Freeze Nuclear Work; U.S. to Give Aid By Steven Lee Myers and Choe Sang-hun (New York Times, Mar. 1, 2012) Some analysts and officials said the agreement might signal that the young and inexperienced Mr. Kim had consolidated power and had the backing of his country’s military.

China, Philippines Exchange Barbs on Planned Oil, Gas Search in Waters near South China Sea (AP, Feb. 29, 2012) The Philippines said it has the right to invite foreign companies to explore for oil and gas in waters located between its western coast and the South China Sea, dismissing China’s claim to the area in a fresh spat between the Asian neighbors.

Taiwan Protests Japan’s Naming of Islands
(CNA, Mar. 4, 2012) Taiwan has lodged a protest with Japan over Tokyo's recent move to name four uninhabited islands also claimed by Taiwan, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said. China Releases Official Names of Disputed Islands