Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday, 25 March 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Mar. 25, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
Bo Xilai's Ouster and China's Leadership Succession
China’s Xi Urges ‘Purity’ at the Top in Scandal’s Wake By Jeremy Page (Wall Street Journal, Mar. 16, 2012) Xi Jinping, the man expected to take over China's top post in the fall, made a public appeal for "purity" and unity among senior leaders, capping an extraordinary week in Chinese politics that saw the fall of the Communist Party's most charismatic and controversial figure.
Change Is Coming to China—but Will Beijing Lead a Social Revolution? By Tania Branigan (Guardian, Mar. 18, 2012) It was the greatest political upheaval in years, but it may not be the last. China's dramatic ousting of the leadership contender Bo Xilai may have been an anomaly – or it may be a sign of trouble ahead as the world's second largest economy prepares for a once in a decade power transition.
Beijing Tightens Grip After Purge By Brian Spegele(Wall Street Journal, Mar. 20, 2012) The central Chinese government hardened its grip in Chongqing, the domain of recently ousted Communist Party secretary Bo Xilai, targeting the "red singing" he had encouraged in the southwestern city, part of an approach that has widened an ideological rift among the party elite.
Bo Xilai Is Gone. Now Can Beijing Keep Its Balance? By Russell Leigh-Moses (China Real Time Report, Mar. 20, 2012) China got its political balance back last week. By dismissing Bo Xilai from his position as party chief in Chongqing, the hardline center in Beijing beat back those who would challenge the process of a smooth leadership transition later this year. But it’s a fragile equilibrium.
Report on Ousted China Official Shows Effort at Damage Control By Michael Wines and Jonathan Ansfield (New York Times, Mar. 20, 2012) Communist Party leaders sacked Bo Xilai after being told that he had schemed to remove his police chief and impede a corruption investigation involving his family, according to a preliminary report on Mr. Bo’s actions circulated among government officials.
As Seas Get Rough, What Course Will Xi Chart? By Russell Leigh-Moses (China Real Time Report, Mar. 22, 2012) The next few weeks provide a clear opportunity for Xi and his allies to display their own flag more prominently, and show just how good they can be as future captains.
How China’s Next Leader Will Guide By Robert Lawrence Kuhn(New York Times, Mar. 24, 2012) Some have taken the extraordinary dismissal of Bo Xilai as a sign that the transition of power in China is in trouble. On the contrary, it shows that the process has matured and is working as it needs to.
'1 Country, 2 Areas' and Cross-Strait Issues
‘1 Country, 2 Areas’ New Basis for Dialogue: KMT
(CNA, Mar. 23, 2012) A senior ruling party representative of Taiwan said that the government is using President Ma Ying-jeou's “one country, two areas” concept in its efforts to improve cross-Taiwan Strait relations.
DPP, TSU Pan ‘One Country, Two Areas’
(Taipei Times, Mar. 24, 2012) A DPP legislator said China is trying to turn the ‘1992 consensus’ into a new consensus which represents ‘one China, with an agreed interpretation.’
‘1 ROC, 2 Areas’ Is More Accurate: President’s Office
(China Post, Mar. 24, 2012) The Presidential Office said that “one R.O.C., two areas” is the more precise formulation of the “one country, two areas” concept.
Analysts Say DPP Should Pivot Focus
(Taipei Times, Mar. 19, 2012) The DPP’s priority should be to reposition itself in terms of a new triangular relationship between the US, China and Taiwan, not to scramble to come up with a new China Policy following the footsteps of the ruling KMT, academics said.
Taiwan Opens Itself to More Chinese Investment
(CNA, Mar. 19, 2012) Taiwan's government plans to allow Chinese investors to invest in 161 types of businesses in a third wave of opening of the island's market to Chinese investment, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said.
Pingtan Joint Operation Must Operate Under the ECFA: Ma
(China Post, Mar. 22, 2012) The “joint management” economic development of the Pingtan Experimental Development Zone between Taiwan and China should only be discussed under the economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA), President Ma Ying-jeou said.
U.S. Policy and Sino-U.S. Engagement
Global Power Shift—Part I By Alistair Burnett(YaleGlobal, Mar. 21, 2012) . The Asia pivot could mark the start of a shrinking global security footprint for the US. If Washington fails to bring down its deficit substantially in the next few years, future presidents may have to cut defense spending further.
PLA and Military Balance
China’s Share of Global Arms Imports Falls, Sipri Says By Daniel Ten Kate (Bloomberg, Mar. 19, 2012) China, the world’s top weapons importer for much of the past decade, fell to fourth from second on an annual list from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute as it produces more arms at home.
U.S. Beef Row and Taiwan's Foreign Relations
Academics Call for Ma to Refocus His Foreign Policy
(Taipei Times, Mar. 25, 2012) Academics urged President Ma Ying-jeou to prioritize cooperation with opposition parties on foreign affairs in his second term, to better manage the challenges facing Taiwan.
US Beef Is Stumbling Block for TIFA: Ma
(China Post, Mar. 22, 2012) To prevent Taiwan from being economically marginalized, the government will need to resume trade agreement talks with the U.S. soon, President Ma Ying-jeou said, pointing out that solving the U.S. beef import issue is key to resuming dialogue.
US’ Taiwan Policy Act Being Blocked
(Taipei Times, Mar. 24, 2012) The passage of the Taiwan Policy Act in the US has been blocked by the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee, with Republican lawmakers voicing doubts over the handling of safety issues relating to visa-waiver programs by the administration of US President Barack Obama.
Taiwan-Singapore Soup Turns Bitter-Sweet By Jens Kastner(Asia Times, Mar. 22, 2012) Taiwan's media has been abuzz with the notion that the island's ties to Singapore have taken a dramatic nosedive lately. Some observers see Beijing pulling the strings while others say the media have made a mountain out of a mole hill.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
Beijing Switches Sides in the Race for Hong Kong’s Chief Executive By Keith Bradsher (New York Times, Mar. 22, 2012) China’s leaders have begun actively supporting a populist to become the next chief executive of Hong Kong in elections this Sunday, abandoning their previous private support for a wealthy civil servant whose candidacy has been plagued by scandals.
Hong Kong Elects Pro-Beijing Chief Executive
(New York Times, Mar. 25, 2012) Leung Chun-ying, a pro-Beijing real estate surveyor, won election on Sunday morning to become the next chief executive of Hong Kong.
China: Conditions Ripe for Interest Rate Liberalization By Aaron Back and Tom Orlik (Wall Street Journal, Mar. 20, 2012) Economists view a move to market-based interest rates as a key element of China's reform program that would help channel money to households and boost consumption.
Why Do We Continue to Ignore China’s Rise? Arrogance By Martin Jacques (Guardian, Mar. 25, 2012) China is, indeed, in so many ways, not like the west. It is not even primarily a nation state but a civilization state. Whereas the west has primarily been shaped by its experience of nation, China has been moulded by its sense of civilization.
Regional Issues and Japan Policy
North Korea Invites IAEA to Monitor Nuke Deal with US
(AFP, Mar. 21, 2012) North Korea has invited UN inspectors to monitor a nuclear freeze deal with the US, insisting the pact remains in force despite its shock announcement of a planned satellite launch.
All Quiet in the South China Sea By M. Taylor Fravel(Foreign Affairs, Mar. 22, 2012) With little fanfare, Beijing has recently taken an unusually moderate approach in the seas surrounding its territory. With the friendlier policy, the country hopes to restore its tarnished image in East Asia and reduce the temptation for Washington to take a more active role there.
Japanese Leader Warns on China’s Military Buildup
(Wall Street Journal, Mar. 19, 2012) Japan's prime minister issued a new warning about Beijing's military build-up, two days after his government made a fresh protest over a Chinese ship's entering waters near a chain of islands claimed by both countries.
China to Step Up Patrol Near Disputed Islands: Report
(AFP, Mar. 20, 2011) China will increase maritime surveillance in a group of disputed islands in the East China Sea to guard its territorial rights, the official Xinhua news agency said.
Behind Japan’s Big Arms Buy By Humza Ahmad(Foreign Affairs, Mar. 22, 2012) With the recent deal to sell F-35 fighter jets to Japan, the United States has bulked up its main regional ally against China while still cutting its own defense budget by a planned $487 billion.
The Loneliest Superpower By Minxin Pei(Foreign Policy, Mar. 20, 2012) China will remain bereft of dependable strategic allies because of three interrelated factors: geography, ideology, and policy.

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Posted by Roberto Abraham Scaruffi at 12:48