Laying the Foundations for Preemptive Nuclear War Against Iran
By Nile Bowie
Global Research, May 27, 2012
URL of this article: www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=31068
As
prospects for a preemptive strike on Iran remain ever present, the
recent round of talks between the P5+1 and Iran in Baghdad on May 23rd,
2012 have resulted in a familiar stalemate. As a precondition for any
deal to stop higher-grade uranium enrichment, Tehran requested immediate
relief from economic sanctions as a show of reciprocity [1].
Iranian chief negotiator Saeed Jalili emphasized Tehran’s right to develop peaceful nuclear energy as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while the P5+1 refused to scale back economic sanctions, insisting Iran suspend its 20% uranium enrichment program [2].
As leaders in Tel Aviv assert that Israel may conduct military strikes against Iran before the US Presidential elections in November [2], Major General Hassan Firouzabadi of the Iranian Armed Forces reiterated Iran’s commitment to the full annihilation of the Zionist regime and the continual support of Palestinian autonomy [3]. Even if Tehran reaches an agreement with the IAEA, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak refused to rule out a military strike against Iranian facilities, demanding that Iran dismantle its uranium enrichment sites and use only imported fuel [4].
Iranian chief negotiator Saeed Jalili emphasized Tehran’s right to develop peaceful nuclear energy as a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, while the P5+1 refused to scale back economic sanctions, insisting Iran suspend its 20% uranium enrichment program [2].
As leaders in Tel Aviv assert that Israel may conduct military strikes against Iran before the US Presidential elections in November [2], Major General Hassan Firouzabadi of the Iranian Armed Forces reiterated Iran’s commitment to the full annihilation of the Zionist regime and the continual support of Palestinian autonomy [3]. Even if Tehran reaches an agreement with the IAEA, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak refused to rule out a military strike against Iranian facilities, demanding that Iran dismantle its uranium enrichment sites and use only imported fuel [4].
Although
the recent conference in Baghdad failed to meet the expectations of its
participants, Iran and the five permanent members of the UN Security
Council plus Germany have agreed to hold another round of talks in
Moscow on June 18th [5]. As a further indication of division between
P5+1 participants, Germany has pledged to work toward a political and
diplomatic solution to Iran’s nuclear energy issues by providing Tehran
with technical assistance in developing a peaceful nuclear program [6],
while the US Senate recently approved a new round of sanctions against
Iran aimed at any country or company that provides technology or
resources to develop Tehran’s oil and uranium resources [7]. The new
legislation targets Iran’s national oil and tanker firms and widens
sanctions on Iran’s energy sector to any international joint venture
where Tehran is a substantial partner or investor. As the US continually
pressures Beijing to join its oil embargo, the Chinese Foreign Ministry
remains vocally opposed to the new package of economic sanctions
against Iran [8].
Russian
Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexander Lukashevich blasted the US for
imposing new unilateral sanctions against Iran, describing the move as
an irrational measure intended to the harm pace of negotiations [9].
India has remained adamant against expanding sanctions on Iran [10], as
New Delhi and Tehran agree to increase annual bilateral trade two thirds
to $25 billion by 2015, confirming their intent to bypass US sanctions
by making payments for a significant portion of its oil purchases from
Iran in rupees [11]. As further cooperation between the US and the
Persian Gulf monarchies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) remains
evident through their unanimous support of Syria’s armed opposition,
Saudi Arabia remains a major beneficiary under the continued imposition
of sanctions on Tehran from Washington. Japan and South Korea once
accounted for 26% of Iran's oil exports [12], now both Seoul [13] and
Tokyo [14] have sought stable supplies of crude oil from Saudi Arabia.
As South Africa turns to Saudi Arabia after halting business with Iran
[15], the kingdom’s crude output is at a thirty-year high [16], as
shipments to the United States quietly rise to 25% [17].
As a
result of sanctions on Iran, Christine Lagarde of the International
Monetary Fund predicts that oil prices could spike as much as 30% and
hover around $160 per barrel if Iran's crude oil exports fell sharply
[18]. As Iranian production hits a ten-year low as of March 2012,
industry-wide fears of a recession-fueled fall in demand have prompted
the reduction of total world oil production through the imposition of
embargoes on Iranian oil; higher prices triggered by a supply squeeze
from the sanctions work to further benefit international oil companies
and producers like Saudi Arabia [19]. In March 2012, the US granted
Japan and 10 EU nations a six-month reprieve to gradually cut their
imports of Iranian oil, lest they be subjected to their own financial
sanctions and cut off from the US financial system [20]. Under the 2012
US National Defense Authorization Act, Barack Obama can impose financial
sanctions on foreign banks that carry out financial transactions with
Iran's central bank "for the purchase of petroleum or petroleum products
from Iran" [21].
Given
the fragile state of the European economy, the further implementation
of financial sanctions on nations who fail to comply with the oil
embargo on Iran is thoroughly unreasonable, with entirely negative
implications for the European Union. Any further escalation of tensions
with Iran would likely trigger inflated oil prices, which could further
cripple the unstable economies of Greece and Portugal and potentially
lead to those nations leaving the European Union. Despite Iranian Oil
Minister Rostam Qassemi downplaying the negative effects of sanctions
[22], inflation is soaring within Iran as the cost of food increases
between 25% to 125%, with 60% of the population relying on cash
subsidies handed out by Tehran [23]. Iran’s budget deficit for the
2011/2012 fiscal year is expected to be between $30 to $50 billion, as
the Iranian rial continues to plunge after the imposition of the oil
embargo, causing widespread panic buying of gold among the Iranian
public [24].
As
commodity prices in Iran continue to skyrocket, former Mossad director
Efraim Halevy remarked, “The rial is going down, it's gone down by over
50 percent. It's almost impossible to describe the damage done," while
former Israeli foreign minister Shlomo Ben-Ami forewarns, "When a
national currency loses 50% of its value in a matter of weeks, economic
collapse is at hand.” [25][26]. As Iran struggled to replace it’s client
base following the imposition of US-led economic sanctions, Israeli
Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz spoke before the Israeli cabinet
predicting the collapse of the Iranian economy [27]. Haaretz reports the
remarks of an unnamed senior official in the Israeli Foreign Ministry,
"These aren't sanctions against Iran. Instead, they are sanctions
imposed by the West to curb Israel's attack plans, had Israel not spoken
out about its intention to attack, none of this would be happening. The
Iranians are frightened. You have to understand what's going on there
in stores; citizens grab food off the shelves because they are worried
about an impending attack. Inflation is soaring and the currency has
lost half its value. All this attests to fear." [28]
As
the black market in Iran expands amid an increasing lack of public
confidence in the rial, the role of the state is indirectly strengthened
because smuggling imports requires strong connections within the
regime, leaving the poor and lower middle class susceptible to poverty
while the officials being targeted by sanctions themselves benefit from
the embargo [29]. The fact that Obama administration chose to
preemptively impose sanctions on Iran before the P5+1 meeting in Baghdad
even took place indicates that the objective of US-Israeli policy
toward Iran seeks not mutual agreement and reconciliation, but the
further perpetuation of conflict to ensure that the question of Iran’s
nuclear energy issue remains unsolved. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei
Lavrov said the scope for sanctions over Iran's nuclear program had been
exhausted and any additional measures were intended to provoke
discontent in the Iranian population [30].
As
the United States and its allies offer unflinching support to armed
opposition groups under cover of “democratic activism” in
non-acquiescent countries in the region, any popular revolution in Iran
would unquestionably be supported and used to pressure the government
from within, even using the opportunity to launch an armed opposition
insurrection. An articled published in The New Yorker by Seymour M.
Hersh entitled, “Our Men in Iran?,”
documents how members of Mujahideen-e-Khalq (MEK), an Iranian dissident
group and US State Department-listed terrorist organization, were
trained in communications, cryptography, small-unit tactics and weaponry
by the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) at a base in Nevada
starting in 2005 [31]. JSOC instructed MEK operatives on how to
penetrate major Iranian communications systems, allowing the group to
intercept telephone calls and text messages inside Iran for the purpose
of sharing them with American intelligence. The group has been
implicated in the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists [32] and
the planting of the Stuxnet malware that sabotaged Iran’s nuclear
facility in Natanz [33].
MEK
was founded in 1965 as a Marxist Islamic mass political movement aimed
at agitating the monarchy of the US-backed Iranian Shah, Mohammad Reza
Pahlavi. The group initially sided with revolutionary clerics led by
Ayatollah Khomeini following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, but eventually
turned away from the regime during a power struggle that resulted in
the group waging urban guerilla warfare against Iran’s Revolutionary
Guards in 1981. The organization was later given refuge by Saddam
Hussein and mounted attacks on Iran from within Iraqi territory, killing
an estimated 17,000 Iranian nationals in the process [34]. MEK exists
as the main component of the Paris-based National Council of Resistance
of Iran (NCRI), a “coalition of democratic Iranian organizations, groups
and personalities,” calling itself a "parliament-in-exile” seeking to
“establish a democratic, secular and coalition government” in Iran [35].
Following the toppling of Saddam Hussein, UN special representative in
Iraq Martin Kobler organized efforts to relocate MEK insurgents to a
former US military base near the Baghdad airport, with the full support
of the US Embassy in Iraq and the State Department to avoid violent
clashes between the MEK and the Shiite-led Iraqi government [36].
MEK
has long received material assistance from Israel, who assisted the
organization with broadcasting into Iran from their political base in
Paris, while the MEK and NCRI have reportedly provided the United States
with intelligence on Iran's nuclear program. Despite the documented
cases of atrocities committed by MEK forces, elder statesmen such as
former NATO Supreme Allied Commander General Wesley K. Clark, former New
York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, former 9/11 Commission Chairman Lee
Hamilton were paid $20,000 to $30,000 per engagement to endorse the
removal of the Mujahideen-e Khalq from the US State Department’s list of
Foreign Terrorist Organizations [37]. NBC News reports that Israel
provided financing, training and arms to Mujahideen-e Khalq, who are
responsible for killing five Iranian nuclear scientists since 2007 using
motorcycle-borne assailants often attaching small magnetic bombs to the
exterior of the victims’ cars [38]. A recent investigation by the US
Treasury Department has indicated that Mujahedin-e Khalq Organization is
financially sponsored by the Israeli regime and Saudi Arabia [39].
Upon
launching a war against Iran, aggressor nations would likely utilize MEK
forces as opposition insurgents and could even recognize the touted
“parliament-in-exile”, the National Council of Resistance of Iran, as
Iran’s legitimate representative, much like how the Friends of Syria
group has recognized the opposition Syrian National Council [40]. From
her political base in Paris, exiled NCRI leader Maryam Rajavi is a
strong candidate for Western support in contrast to internal opposition
figures such as Mir-Hossein Mousavi, former Iranian Prime Minister
turned political reformist and figurehead of the Green Movement
demonstrations in 2009 following the victory of incumbent President
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in elections widely perceived as a fraudulent [41].
Although Mousavi has advocated greater personal freedoms in Iran and the
disbanding of religious police enforcers, he is a strong advocate of
Iran’s nuclear energy program and would likely never yield the kind of
acquiescence to Western policy that exiled figures such as Maryam Rajavi
would uphold in exchange for political support and material assistance
[42]. It is widely believed that Mousavi is currently held under house
arrest without an arrest warrant, charge or trial [43].
While
figures such as Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi publically
renounce nuclear weapons [44], Iranian scientists claim to be enriching
uranium to 20% to develop radiopharmaceuticals and industrial isotopes
under the supervision of the IAEA inspectors [45]. On October 1, 2010,
the IAEA proposed a deal according to which Iran would send 3.5%
enriched uranium abroad and receive 20% enriched uranium from potential
suppliers in return, namely France and the United States, who Tehran
accused of stalling negotiations from the start [46]. Tehran was offered
a deal at a time when its supplies of 20% enriched uranium were nearly
depleted, however Iranian lawmakers rejected the deal after technical
studies showed that it would only take two to three months for any
country to further enrich the nuclear stockpile and turn it into metal
nuclear plates for the Tehran Research Reactor, while suppliers had
announced that they would not return fuel to Iran in any time less than
seven months [47].
Iran
has made efforts to ensure the transparency of its nuclear program by
allowing IAEA probes to inspect Iranian sites such as the Parchin
military complex where the agency has reported suspicious activities in
the past [48]. The IAEA’s recent discovery of traces of uranium enriched
up to 27% at Iran's Fordo enrichment plant sparked controversy,
although the enrichment figure is still substantially below the 90%
level needed to make the fissile core required in nuclear arms;
officials conceded that the likely explanation for the increased level
of enrichment was attributed to centrifuges initially over-enriching at
the start as technicians adjusted their output [49]. It should be noted
that former chief of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Hans
Blix has challenged the IAEA’s own reports on Iran’s nuclear activities,
accusing the agency of relying on unverified intelligence from the US
and Israel [50]; the IAEA’s most recent report cited Tehran's progress
toward enrichment technology with complete cooperation with the agency
and confirms the non-weaponized status of Iranian nuclear activities
[51].
Clinton
Bastin, former director of US nuclear weapons production programs, has
sent an open letter to President Obama regarding the status of Iran’s
capacity to produce nuclear weapons [52]. Bastin reiterates, “The
ultimate product of Iran's gas centrifuge facilities would be highly
enriched uranium hexafluoride, a gas that cannot be used to make a
weapon. Converting the gas to metal, fabricating components and
assembling them with high explosives using dangerous and difficult
technology that has never been used in Iran would take many years after a
diversion of three tons of low enriched uranium gas from fully
safeguarded inventories. The resulting weapon, if intended for delivery
by missile, would have a yield equivalent to that of a kiloton of
conventional high explosives” [53]. The US-based Institute for Science
and International Security (ISIS) has recently released claims that
Iran’s total production of enriched uranium over the past five years
would be enough for at least five nuclear weapons stating, "This total
amount of 3.5 percent low enriched uranium hexafluoride, if further
enriched to weapon grade, is enough to make over five nuclear weapons."
[54]
Bastin’s
assessment of Iran’s nuclear program further emphasizes the
impracticality of weaponizing the hexafluoride product of Tehran’s
gas-centrifuges, as the resulting deterrent would yield the equivalent
explosive capacity equal to a kiloton of conventional explosives,
producing a highly inefficient nuclear weapon. If Iran chose to produce
nuclear weapons in this way, it would take several years to reach the
90% enrichment levels needed for a nuclear deterrent; Iran has complied
with the IAEA and the United Nations on this issue and there is no
substantial evidence indicating that Tehran has any intention of
enriching uranium to 90% for the purpose of creating nuclear weapons. On
March 23rd, 2012, Reuters released a special report entitled, “Intel shows Iran nuclear threat not imminent”,
concluding that the United States, its European allies and even Israel
agree that Tehran does not have a bomb, it has not decided to build one,
and it is years away from having a deliverable nuclear warhead [55]. As
the West continually implements an unyielding regime of sanctions
against Iran when they themselves acknowledge the civilian nature of the
Iranian nuclear program, the overwhelming motive behind their actions
to pressure Iran into full-scale war on an unprecedented scale is
self-evident.
The
United States has produced more than 70,000 nuclear weapons between 1951
and 1998 [56], while Israel possess a nuclear weapons stockpile ranging
from 75 to 400 warheads [57]. While the hazardous ramifications of
Iran’s nuclear development pervade public consciousness, the fact that
US legal doctrine has worked to further blur the line between
conventional and nuclear warfare remains rarely acknowledged. The March
2005 Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations released
by the Joint Chiefs of Staff envisages “contingency plans” for an
offensive first strike use of nuclear weapons against both Iran and
North Korea, providing the legal mandate to carry out pre-emptive
nuclear war, both in terms of military planning as well as defense
procurement and production [58] The 2002 adoption of the Pentagon’s 2001
Nuclear Posture Review by the US Congress marked the cease of
prohibition on low yield nuclear weapons and provided funding
allocations to pursue the development of tactical nuclear weapons, such
as bunker buster (earth penetrator) mini-nukes [59].
The
revised Doctrine for Joint Nuclear Operations (March 2005) envisaged
five scenarios where “the use of nuclear weapons might be requested,”
namely, “to attack adversary installations including weapons of mass
destruction, deep, hardened bunkers containing chemical or biological
weapons, or the command and control infrastructure required for the
adversary to execute a WMD attack against the United States or its
friends and allies” and “to counter potentially overwhelming adversary
conventional forces”. The doctrine further cites, “Responsible security
planning requires preparation for threats that are possible, though
perhaps unlikely today. The lessons of military history remain clear:
unpredictable, irrational conflicts occur. Military forces must prepare
to counter weapons and capabilities that exist in the near term even if
no immediate likely scenarios for war are at hand. To maximize
deterrence of WMD use, it is essential US forces prepare to use nuclear
weapons effectively and that US forces are determined to employ nuclear
weapons if necessary to prevent or retaliate against WMD use” [60].
The
possibility of nuclear strikes against Iran pose staggeringly
frightening implications for the human family, as the very nations
crying foul about the danger of nuclear weapons have prepared the legal
infrastructure to use them against others, preemptively. While trust
towards the Iranian regime remains questionable among segments of the
Iranian population and the international community, Tehran has complied
with the IAEA and no evidence exists to implicate Iran with constructing
a nuclear weapon. While the fiery rhetoric of Iranian and Israeli
officials remains entirely counterproductive, Tel Aviv has shown the
least initiative to constructively partake in diplomacy with Iran, as
top Israeli officials refuse to even meet with US envoy to the P5+1,
Wendy Sherman, who reportedly was sent to Tel Aviv to "reaffirm our
unshakable commitment to Israel's security" [61]. As Israel aggressively
employs an apartheid policy domestically, nuclear-armed Tel Aviv boasts
its right to strike Iran without consent from any other nation [62]. As
our species approaches the increasingly dangerous crossroads of the
21st Century, nations such as Germany, Russia, India and China must
utilize their collective influence and technology to mediate this
impending security crisis in the Middle East.
Although
Iran has asserted its right to develop peaceful nuclear technology as a
signatory to the nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty, its uranium-based
fuel has wrought negative and inaccurate accusations regarding Tehran’s
intentions to weaponize. To ensure the further deflection of erroneous
accusations, Iran can truly make an example of itself by phasing out
uranium-based nuclear technology and shifting to a liquid fuel based on
molten-fluoride salts used in Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor (LFTR)
nuclear technology powered by thorium, an obscure, mildly radioactive
metal produced as a waste product from the mining of rare earth
minerals. Thorium is plentiful, easily accessible and energy dense, a
metric ton produces as much energy as 200 tons of uranium, or 3,500,000
ton of coal [63]. Thorium-based reactors consume their own hazardous
waste and would serve Iran’s internal needs far more effectively than
its current technology. As a nuclear fuel, thorium is both cleaner and
safer than uranium and produces benign alpha radiation, unable to even
penetrate skin [64].
The
governments of China [65] and India [66] have expressed great interest
in further developing thorium molten-salt reactor technology. Iran holds
9% of the world’s oil reserves and 17% of its natural gas reserves; the
abundant supply of fossil fuel resources has indirectly discouraged the
pursuit of alternative renewable energy sources [67]. Iran has enormous
potential as a producer of geothermal energy, particularly in the
provinces of Azerbaijan and Tehran [68]. There is no shortage of
solutions to the current problems faced by the international community
in its efforts to oversee peaceful energy technology in Iran. China,
Germany and India could share their growing technical expertise with
Iran to develop energy solutions that can never be used as a pretext for
external military strikes. No credible basis exists to warrant the
implementation of economic sanctions against Iran, which are ostensibly
in place to coax social unrest and collapse the Iranian economy.
For
all the belligerence exuded by the current Iranian regime, the
unwavering aggressive it receives from outside forces does nothing to
offer the people of Iran any tangible solutions to better themselves and
their standard of living. Although the further application of sanctions
will inevitably have damaging effects on Tehran, inflated oil price
fluctuations have the potential to fracture the fledging
austerity-states of the European Union. The failure of emerging markets
to adhere to full embargoes on Iran once they come into effect would
send a strong message to the architects of such disastrous policy. As
nations such as China and Russia acknowledge the imbalanced nature of
power in the Security Council and the aggressive stance of the United
States and Israel, these nations can best utilize their power by
offering technological and diplomatic solutions to avert the detrimental
social, economic and spiritual consequences of war.
Nile Bowie is an independent writer and photojournalist based in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Notes
[1] Iran accuses world powers of creating 'difficult atmosphere' in nuclear talks, Haaretz, May 24, 2012
[2] Iran claims ‘undeniable right’ to enrich Uranium: new talks, same deadlock, Russia Today, May 25, 2012
[3] Israel takes back promise to Obama not to attack Iran before the election, Russia Today, May 24, 2012
[16] Saudi Arabia says kingdom pumping 10 million bpd, the most in 5 months, Al Arabiya, May 8, 2012
[21] Ibid
[25] Warning Iran, and lacerating Mitt Romney, a former Mossad chief steps out of the shadows, The Times of Israel, March 28, 2012
[28] Israeli threats of attack sparked new wave of Iran sanctions, officials say, Haaretz, March 16, 2012
[32] Israel teams with terror group to kill Iran's nuclear scientists, U.S. officials tell NBC News, MSNBC, February 9, 2012
[34] Moqtada Sadr Reiterates Iraqis' Demand for Expulsion of MKO Terrorists, Fars News Agency, September 19, 2011
[35] About the National Council of Resistance of Iran, The National Council of Resistance of Iran, 2010
[38] Israel teams with terror group to kill Iran's nuclear scientists, U.S. officials tell NBC News, MSNBC, February 9, 2012
[46] Ibid
[47] Ibid
[49] Traces of uranium enriched to higher than previous levels found at Iran site, Haaretz, May 25, 2012
[53] Top US Nuclear Expert Tells Obama: There Is No Weapons Threat From Iran, LaRouche Pac, February 25, 2012
[59] Ibid
[60] Ibid
[61] U.S. sends senior envoy to Israel to brief government on Iran nuclear talks, Haaretz, May 25, 2012
[62] Bad news unwelcome: Israel refuses to listen to US envoy’s report on Iran, Russia Today, May 26, 2012
[67] Renewable energy in Iran: Challenges and opportunities for sustainable development, International Journal of Environmental Science & Technology, Spring 2004