Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday, 24 June 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Jun. 24, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
China's Leadership Succession
Communist Party Wilting under the Political Heat? Hardly By Russell Leigh Moses (China Real Time Report, Jun. 20, 2012) The developing agenda for China’s leaders is not saying “yes” or “no” to political reform, but what kind of restructuring makes sense for the moment.
Central Party School’s Critiques Suggest New Leadership Dynamics By Peter Mattis (China Brief 12(12), Jamestown Foundation, Jun. 22, 2012) The most recent stirrings of political reform discussion may be keeping within strict boundaries that do not challenge the CCP’s right to rule, but recent articles in the official Chinese media suggest this discussion is more than mere rhetoric.
Sino-Philippine Standoff in South China Sea
Philippines and China East Tensions in Rift at Sea
(New York Times, Jun. 19, 2012) Chinese fishing boats near the disputed Scarborough Shoal off the Philippine coast were heading back to port after Philippine vessels withdrew from the same area in an easing of tensions in the South China Sea.
China Criticizes Vietnam in Dispute Over Islands
(New York Times, Jun. 22, 2012) In a fresh show of its resolve in a dispute over the South China Sea, China sharply criticized Vietnam for passing a law that claims sovereignty over the Paracel and Spratly Islands, saying they are the ‘‘indisputable’’ territory of China.
China’s Monroe Doctrine By James Holmes(The Diplomat, Jun. 20, 2012) Despite claims to the contrary, China’s policy in the near seas today bears scant resemblance to the Monroe Doctrine. But its application still holds lessons for China.
Sino-U.S. Engagement
US Firepower May Spark Arms Race By Dennis Hickey(Taipei Times, Jun. 15, 2012) The present US policy enables Taipei to bolster its air defenses with upgraded F-16A/B fighters and PAC-3 Patriot missiles. Not only does it beef up Taiwan’s air power, it sends a powerful message to Beijing that US officials will not rule out future arms sales. This constitutes a good start, but does not go far enough toward reducing the military imbalance or promoting reconciliation.
CRS Worried about Drop in PRC-US Military Exchanges By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Jun. 22, 2012) Tensions over Taiwan have continued to flare since the mid-1990s, a report by the US Congressional Research Service said, adding that the situation has left “many observers fearing the possibility of war looming between the United States and China — two nuclear powers.”
Cross-Strait Issues
China to Ease Work Limits
(CNA, Jun. 18, 2012) Jia Qinglin, chairman of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, said yesterday that China will try to better grasp the needs of Taiwanese, especially those in small and medium-sized enterprises and in agriculture.
China Offers Credits for Investment from Taiwan By Robert M Cutler (Asia Times, Jun. 23, 2012) Four Chinese state banks will offer up to US$95 billion in credit to Taiwanese investments in business on the mainland, the director of Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office Wang Yi told a conference in Xiamen, Xinhua has reported.
Investment Pact with China May Be Delayed
(China Post, Jun. 21, 2012) Cross-strait talks slated for the end of June to sign an agreement on investment protection may have to be delayed as Taipei and Beijing have yet to trim the difference over some crucial details.
MAC Confirms Delays to Cross-Strait Investment Protection Pact Talks (CNA, Jun. 22, 2012) Negotiations between Taiwan and China on an investment protection agreement have been postponed due to differences over crucial details, Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council said.
DPP Lawmaker Proposes Cross-Strait Interaction Strategy
(CNA, Jun. 22, 2012) The opposition DPP should proactively interact with China on the basis of democratic values and be a part of the mainland's peaceful transformation into a more democratized society, party lawmaker Lin Chia-lung said.
China's Space Program, PLA and Military Balance
Chinese Spacecraft Docks with Module
(AP, Jun. 19, 2012) A Chinese spacecraft carrying three astronauts docked with an orbiting module, another first for the country as it strives to match American and Russian exploits in space.
China Shenzhou-9 Spacecraft Makes First manual Docking
(BBC, Jun. 24, 2012) China has successfully completed its first ever manual docking of a spacecraft with another space module.
China Floats towards Space Dominance By Brendan O’Reilly(Asia Times, Jun. 19, 2012) The successful docking of China's manned Shenzhou-9 spacecraft with the country's Tiangong-1 space lab heralds a new age. A major shift in the world order is occurring above Earth, with the Chinese space program expanding as the efforts of other nations wind down.
US-Based Defense News Says China Ups Taiwan Surveillance
(CNA, Jun. 20, 2012) China has upgraded a key eavesdropping site in southeastern Fujian province opposite Taiwan, according to images taken by new commercial satellites, a U.S. weekly reported.
Analyst Urges US to Deepen Taiwan Military Relations By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Jun. 21, 2012) The US should deepen and broaden its military relations with Taiwan, a conference on military growth in the Asia-Pacific region has been told.
U.S. Beef Row and Taiwan's Domestic Issues
Ma Not Considering Executive Order on Beef
(China Post, Jun. 18, 2012) Presdient Ma Ying-jeou is currently not considering the use of an executive order to lift the ban on the import of U.S. beef until the extraordinary session of the Legislative Yuan completes the amendment of the U.S. beef bill, the Executive Yuan spokesman Hu Yu-wei said.
Washington Sees Beef Bill As Crucial to TIFA: AmCham
(China Post, Jun. 19, 2012) Washington said Taiwan must strike its zero-tolerance policy on ractopamine before the two sides can resume TIFA talks, according to the American Chamber of Commerce in Taipei.
Ma Aims to Settle US Beef Import Row to Spur on TIFA, TPP Talks
(China Post, Jun. 23, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou expressed determination to settle the dispute over imports of U.S. beef to pave the way for resuming TIFA talks and open dialogue on the Trans-Pacific Partnership pact with the U.S.
It Is Not As Simple As US and Them By Lin Chia-cheng(Taipei Times, Jun. 20, 2012) The DPP is not Taiwan’s ruling party at present, so its US policies are not those of Taiwan as a whole. However, the DPP is the biggest opposition party and it ran the central government for eight years. Giving a clear explanation of the DPP’s US policies will be a significant factor affecting whether the party can return to government in 2016.
Su Tseng-Chang and the Future of the DPP By Russell Hsiao, Michael Hsiao (China Brief 12(12), Jamestown Foundation, Jun. 22, 2012) For Su, visiting China will not be the focal point at this stage. Instead, Su will take on the strengthening of the party’s local organizations as a priority to prepare for the coming 2014 elections.
Lawmaker Lists Four Challenges for DPP
(China Post, Jun. 24, 2012) The DPP needs to consolidate its leadership, exercise better check-and-balance in parliament, expand grassroots support and improve its cross-strait relations, Legislator Lin Jia-lung said.
Taiwan's Foreign Relations
Taiwan Slips from Position As One of US’ Top Partners By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Jun. 20, 2012) The relative importance of Taiwan as a US trading partner has declined over the past 20 years, a new report by the US Congressional Research Service says.
Taipei Urges Panama to Accept Envoy
(Taipei Times, Jun. 20, 2012) Taipei once again urged Panamanian President Ricardo Martinelli to accept the credentials of Ambassador Diego Chou.
Ties to Taiwan ‘Under Review’: St. Lucia Media
(Taipei Times, Jun. 24, 2012) St Lucia, one of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, reportedly is reviewing its relations with Taiwan before a decision is made on whether to continue diplomatic ties.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
China, Emerging Powers Pump Up IMF Firewall
(AFP, Jun. 19, 2012) Led by China, emerging economies pledged huge sums to the International Monetary Fund's global firewall Monday, helping it raise US$456 billion in resources as the eurozone crisis rages.
Regional Issues and Japan Policy
The Logic of China’s North Korea Policy By Yun Sun(PacNet #39, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Jun. 21, 2012) As long as China is hostile toward and suspicious about the strategic intentions of the US and China’s “utility” in the future US-ROK military alliance, Beijing sees no reason to change its policy on North Korea.
Oil Firms in China and India Pull Closer
(Wall Street Journal, Jun. 19, 2012) India and China's largest oil companies have agreed to jointly explore for oil and natural gas world-wide, in an attempt to put aside a long-standing rivalry and better use their combined financial resources and expertise to secure energy supplies for their fast-growing economies.
How Much Do I Loathe You? Japan and China Count the Ways
(China Real Time Report, Jun. 21, 2012) About 84% of Japanese respondents said they have a negative impression of China, a six percentage point increase from the previous year, according to an annual bilateral survey.
Japan Fishing Talks Still on Hold
(Taipei Times, Jun. 22, 2012) Despite a consensus to set aside disputes over sovereignty, long-delayed talks with Japan on fishing rights in overlapping territory remain stalled, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs official said.
----------------------------------------------
Regards,
Dalton LinEditor, Taiwan Security Research
E-mail: daltonlin@ntu.edu.tw, Taiwan Security Research: taiwansecurity.org
Posted by Roberto Abraham Scaruffi at 12:29