02/22/12
EXCLUSIVE: The Memo That Larry Summers Didn't Want Obama to See Noam Scheiber
For the past three years, Washington journalists and
politicos have obsessed over a 57-page memo that Barack Obama’s incoming
economic team prepared for him in late 2008. The document has achieved such
totemic status for good reason: It decisively shaped the Obama administration’s
initial response to the economic crisis. The memo outlined the president-elect’s
options for dealing with the teetering banks, the cash-strapped automakers, and
the country’s tidal wave of foreclosures. Above all, the memo laid out options
for a massive stimulus package—the mix of tax cuts and government spending
designed to end the recession and boost employment. The economic team presented
the contents of the memo to Obama at his transition headquarters on December 16,
2008, at which point they collectively settled on a proposed stimulus of nearly
$800 billion.
Last month, my friend and former colleague, Ryan Lizza, wrote a much-discussed piece in The New Yorker based on a copy of this and several other previously-unpublished memos. The piece and the corresponding memo described the stimulus options that Obama’s team—including Larry Summers, his top economic adviser, and Christy Romer, soon to be his chief White House economist—ultimately sent him. The options ranged from about $550 billion to just under $900 billion.
Intriguingly, Lizza also noted that Romer “was frustrated that she wasn’t allowed to present an even larger option,” suggesting that while the memo he obtained may have been the end of the story, it was far from the whole story.
Now, based on reporting I’ve done for my forthcoming book on the Obama administration, I can fill in a major gap in the narrative—an earlier version of the same memo that includes Romer’s larger option. (A source provided the memo on the condition that he not be named.) In this version of the memo, Romer calculated that it would take an eye-popping $1.7-to-$1.8 trillion to fill the entire hole in the economy—the “output gap,” in economist-speak. “An ambitious goal would be to eliminate the output gap by 2011–Q1 [the first quarter of 2011], returning the economy to full employment by that date,” she wrote. “To achieve that magnitude of effective stimulus using a feasible combination of spending, taxes and transfers to states and localities would require package costing about $1.8 trillion over two years.” Alas, these words never made it into the memo the president saw.
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