Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Monday, 14 April 2014

304x90
April 14, 2014

1 Ultimatums and A Divided Ukraine

The prospect of a divided Ukraine is growing more likely by the minute. Separatists across the eastern part of the country ignored Kyiv’s Monday-morning deadline to disarm or confront a “full-scale anti-terrorist operation,” and continue to occupy police stations and security offices in multiple cities, where violence has killed at least four people. Separatists have established a presence in Kharkiv, Lugansk, Donetsk, Horlivka, and Slovyansk--all cities “on major crossroads that connect vital parts of eastern Ukraine with Russia,” as The Interpreter points out.
In response to the ignored ultimatum, Ukrainian Interim President Oleksander Turchinov said the anti-terrorist operation would commence and said he is open to a nationwide referendum “on the future shape of the Ukrainian state,” which would take place on the same day as the Ukrainian presidential elections, May 25. The proposed referendum would allow citizens to vote on how much autonomy the regional governments should have.
Hours after the ignored deadline, however, the Ukrainian offensive has yet to begin. Turchinov reported fired the security chief in charge of the operation, according to Reuters, and he has asked the UN to send peacekeeping troops to help with the offensive. Given that Russia is a member of the UN Security Council, the request is unlikely to be heeded.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has received “very many similar requests from the regions of eastern Ukraine” asking Russia to intervene, Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told Russian media on Monday. Putin has signed a decree increasing his salary and that of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev 2.65 times. In 2012, Putin made 3.672 million rubles and Medvedev made 4.259 million rubles.
The State Department has overtly said that Russia seems to be supporting the separatist offensive, but praised the Ukrainian government’s restraint in the East.  Ukrainian intelligence leaked intercepted phone conversations between Russians in east Ukraine and in Moscow today,  which purportedly confirm Russian involvement in the unrest.
In Kyiv, protesters outside the Interior Ministry demanded that the government take a stronger approach to the conflict. Fomer Prime Minister and now presidential candidate Yulia Tymoshenko said she’s in favor of an armed response in the east. 
Sunday night, Russia called for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council, in which it urged Ukraine not to use force against separatists. On Monday, Russia test fired and intercontinental ballistic missile that "can carry multiple independently-targetable nuclear warheads," RIA Novosti reports.

2 Ukraine's Catch-22

Today’s news comes after Ukraine found itself in a catch-22 this weekend as pro-Russian protests escalated and spread throughout the eastern part of the country. Shots have been fired in several cities where separatists have taken over government security offices and blocked roads, demanding a response from Kiev. On Saturday, however, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that if Ukraine uses force against pro-Russian protesters, Russia will not participate in planned four-party talks on the crisis. Ukraine officially dispatched an "anti-terrorist" operation to eastern Ukraine this weekend in response to what the government called "large-scale separatist operations" on the part of "the Russian special service and saboteurs." So far one Ukrainian officer is known to have been killed.
Meanwhile, some 40,000 Russian troops are stationed at the Ukrainian border, according to NATO satellite imagery released this week. “These forces have a destabilizing effect and present serious implications for the security and stability of the region,” said NATO Brigadier Gary Deakin. Russia appears to have positioned its military to be ready to invade at any moment.
The Ukrainian Berkut officer was killed Sunday night after a shootout broke out in the eastern Ukrainian city of Sloviansk, in the already unstable Donetsk region (VICE  has photos of the confrontation). Five others were injured in the first reported gun fight in eastern Ukraine, which started after armed men seized the town’s state security office and police station, AP reports. Ukrainian Interior Minister Arsen Avakov also reported “an unclear number of casualties among the militia.” Read the Kyiv Post’s dispatch from the scene, where OSCE observers were reportedly mobbed.
Photo by @KyivPost's @sia_vlasova illustrating previous tweet. Tires, trees being burned on/near roads. #Slavyansk pic.twitter.com/mypYbJCMKH
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 13, 2014

3 Repeating The Crimean Scenario 

Ukrainian Interim President Oleksander Turchinov convened an emergency meeting of the National Security Council following the news from Sloviansk. According to the Guardian, Ukraine advised all Sloviansk residents to stay inside, though at the city's state security office "A group of up to a 100 civilians, many of them elderly women, stood in front of the building, chanting messages of solidarity to the protesters inside, including 'Referendum!'"
In an address to Ukrainians on Sunday, Turchynov called the escalating protests a "repeat of the Crimean scenario" and said that he is willing to give Ukraine's regional governments more autonomy.
Many have reported that the separatists are well-equipped, and some are wearing similar uniforms to those worn by Russian forces. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on Sunday that "no Russian agents or troops" are in eastern Ukraine.
Militants in eastern #Ukraine were equipped with Russian weapons and the same uniforms as those worn by Russian forces that invaded Crimea.
— Geoffrey Pyatt (@GeoffPyatt) April 13, 2014
There are two distinct groups taking over #Ukraine: core group of #Russian special forces and armed berkut/gangs from #Crimea and elsewhere
— Ukraine Reporter (@StateOfUkraine) April 13, 2014

4 Russian War Tourists?

Buzzfeed’s Max Seddon and Mike Giglio report from the ground on how Russian “war tourists” are stirring unrest in east Ukraine. “The SBU [the Ukrainian Security Service] has arrested several Ukrainians who it says were members of Russian cells or working for Russian intelligence. One was spying on troop movements for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet; another group was caught allegedly handing stolen computer files to a Russian agent in Kharkiv." The Daily Beast reports on Russia’s “how-to guide” for “tourists” in Ukraine.
Ukrainian Berkut police forces in Donetsk sided with pro-Russian protesters occupying government buildings in the city. “We will not submit to Kiev, because we do not think that anyone [in the government] is legitimate,” one officer said according to RIA Novosti. Police in Lugansk also said they are no longer taking orders from the Ukrainian government, Gazeta.ru reports.  Lugansk regional offices are already reportedly stocked with blank Russian passports to hand out to Ukrainians.
Tense scenes like this one all around #Donetsk Oblast today. pic.twitter.com/97h1JvoBak #Ukraine
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 13, 2014
In Kharkiv, pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian supporters clashed during simultaneous protests in the city center. Gunshots and grenades were heard on the scene, and at least three people were hospitalized.
Photo of injured #Kyiv supporters after being attacked by pro-Russia demonstrators in Kharkiv, #Ukrainepic.twitter.com/GvJKIXbyYr
— Jim Roberts (@nycjim) April 13, 2014
The eastern city of Zaporizhia also saw clashes on Sunday when pro-Ukrainian protesters threw eggs and milk at pro-Russian protesters in the city center.

5 America's Response

NATO Commander Gen. Philip Breedlove told the House Armed Services Committee that the U.S. should be doing more to help Ukraine defend itself, splitting with the Obama administration’s tempered approach to the conflict. As The Daily Beast reports, Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has said that even if Russia invades Ukraine, the U.S. would not use military force to intervene. On April 15, Breedlove will present the U.S. plan for deploying additional forces to NATO territory in Europe.
Former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych made a statement from Russia today in which he accused the CIA of fomenting unrest in eastern Ukraine and said the country is "already in the middle of a civil war." He was joined by Ukraine's former Prosecutor General Viktor Pshonka and former Interior Minister Vitaliy Zakharchenko, all three of whom are wanted for mass murder in Kyiv.
Yanukovych gives presser together with fugitive ex-AG & Interior Min: all 3 are wanted for the mass murder in Kyiv pic.twitter.com/Ls0OcD1B4G
— Maxim Eristavi (@MaximEristavi) April 13, 2014
Vice President Joe Biden will travel to Ukraine April 22 to meet with government officials, the White House reported Saturday evening. Russian media reported that CIA Director John Brennan held "secret meetings" in Kiev on Saturday, and one member of the Russian Duma said that he would "view such a visit as a challenge to Russia," The Moscow Times reports.

6 The E.U.'s Response

The E.U. approved a $3.2 billion aid package to Ukraine Monday, and the U.S. approved up to a  $1 billion loan. E.U. foreign ministers are considering a third round of sanctions on Russia, Bloomberg reports. The U.S. is also moving to impose new sanctions.

7 Google's Response

Google Maps now depicts Crimean borders differently based on user location. If accessed within Russia, Google shows that Crimea is part of Russian territory. Outside of Russia, it shows a black dotted line across the top of the peninsula to indicate disputed borders (via Mashable).