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Borderlands: The View from Azerbaijan
By George Friedman I arrive in Azerbaijan as the country celebrates Victory Day, the day all successor states of the former Soviet Union celebrate the defeat of Germany in World War II. No one knows how many Soviet citizens died in that war; perhaps 22 million. The number is staggering and represents both the incompetence and magnificence of Russia, which led the Soviets in war. Any understanding of Russia that speaks of one without the other is flawed. As I write, fireworks are going off over the Caspian Sea. The pyrotechnics over the sea are long and elaborate, sounding like an artillery barrage. They are a reminder that Baku was perhaps the most important place in the Nazi-Soviet war. It produced almost all of the Soviet Union’s petroleum. The Germans were desperate for it, and wanted to deny it to Moscow. German strategy after 1942, including the infamous battle of Stalingrad, had to do with Baku oil. In the end, the Germans threw an army against the high Caucasus guarding Baku. In response, an army raised in the Caucasus fought and defeated them. The Soviets won the war. They wouldn’t have if the Germans had reached Baku. It is symbolic, at least to me, that these celebrations blend into the anniversary of the birth of Heydar Aliyev, the late president of Azerbaijan who endured the war and much later to forge the post-Soviet identity of his country. He would have been 91 on May 10.Read more » |
