by George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor
In recent weeks, some of the international system's unfinished business has revealed itself. We have seen that Ukraine's fate is not yet settled, and with that, neither is Russia's relationship with the European Peninsula. In Iraq we learned that the withdrawal of U.S. forces and the creation of a new Iraqi political system did not answer the question of how the three parts of Iraq can live together. Geopolitical situations rarely resolve themselves neatly or permanently.
Read more >>
from the Chicago Fed
According to participants in the Chicago Fed's annual Automotive Outlook Symposium, the nation's economic growth is forecasted to be solid this year and to strengthen somewhat in 2015. Inflation is expected to increase in 2014 and remain flat in 2015. The unemployment rate is anticipated to move lower but remain near 6% through the end of 2015. Light vehicle sales are predicted to improve moderately in 2014 and 2015.
Midday Market Commentary For 06-24-2014
The SP500 reached a new historic high this morning (1968.17) on moderate to low volume as the $VIX headed down (10.89). Now that the Tuesday 'up day' has done its thing, what does tomorrow have to offer?
By noon, the averages were off the morning highs and sliding along sideways in the green on low to anemic volume.
Notice to Bears: Bull Party is in full swing and they want all the 'Sheeples' to join in.
Many of us will not agree with this video. It suggests social safety nets do not work because it keeps the poor people poor.
Of the three regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all show manufacturing expanding in June 2014. A complete summary follows. The market expected this survey index at 5 to 12 (consensus 7) versus the 3 actual [note that values above zero represent expansion].
Opening Market Commentary For 06-24-2014
Premarkets were down -0.08% on news that the US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index was down. Markets opened down -0.18% and the BTFDers jumped in melting numbers back up on low volume. By the 15 minute mark the averages were close to yesterday's closing numbers with the small caps already in the green.
By 10 am the Consumer Confidence reported higher than expected and US New Home Sales came in higher too sending the markets shooting up where the SP500 set another new high (1916.94) and promptly melted down fractionally.
Written by Doug Short and Steven Hansen
The June 2014 Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose moderately after rising in May. The market expected this index to come in at 81.0 to 86.0 (consensus 83.7) versus the 85.2 reported.
Read more >>
Written by John Lounsbury and Steven Hansen
New home sales data for May 2014 skyrocketed. Maybe it was due to pent up demand from the previous months being suppressed by the weather. This is an volatile data series, but now the three month rolling average is growing year-over-year again.
Read more >>
Americas most important day of 2014?
On Tuesday July 1st, 2014, a new law (part of HR Bill #2847) goes into effect in America.
On the surface, it looks like just another tax law - but it actually has huge implications far beyond the tax code. This law actually changes our entire financial system... overnight.
Even the normally liberal Atlantic Monthly magazine said it "seems to be turning into a nightmare and disaster."
Yet 99% of Americans have no idea what is about to happen. Make sure you get the facts and protect yourself.
Details here...
Written by Steven Hansen
The non-seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller home price index (20 cities) for April 2014 (released today) rate of growth again declined sharply but showed the 23rd consecutive monthly year-over-year gain in housing prices since the end of the housing stimulus in 2010.
Read more >>
Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
Isis advance threatens Iraq's very future, claims John Kerry (Martin Chulov, CNN) Kerry is in Baghdad promising "intense and sustained support" for Iraq. Are those fighting words? Kerry also said:
"The very future of Iraq depends on choices that will be made in the next days and weeks. Not next week, not next month, but now."
Weather and Climate Report, 23 June 2014
Written by Sig Silber
What is going on with the North Atlantic and North Pacific?
What do we know? What is conjecture? Why is it important? And why do policy makers ignore this aspect of climate?
Five Decades of Middle Class Wages: Not an Encouraging Perspective
As a follow-up on some collaboration with Mike Shedlock in advance of his recent commentary on wages over time, here's a perspective on personal income for production and nonsupervisory private employees going back five decades.
Read more >>
by Matt Insley, Daily Reckoning
Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects, says":
"Targeting oil infrastructure is the easiest way to have demands met."
Infrastructure... the Middle East... disrupted oil exports...
It's all part of a larger story, one that's been relegated to the back pages of the mainstream coverage, especially with Iraq going up in flames this past week.
I'm talking about Libya.
by David Elmes, The Conversation
Conflict between Iraqi government forces and Sunni militia group ISIS to the north of Baghdad has prompted some headlines to talk of 'soaring prices'. Friday's Financial Timeswas more measured, reporting that Brent Crude, 'has seen only modest gains, rising just over $5 a barrel to a nine-month high of $115 since the onslaught by Sunni militia began two weeks ago.'
Second Month of Slowing Growth Despite Strengthening Periphery
Econintersect: The Markit Flash (preliminary) Composite PMI for the Eurozone is still well above the 50 mark between expansion and contraction with a reading of 52.8 for June. This is down from 53.5 in May and the lowest reading in six months. Manufacturing numbers show the largest declines from May while the services PMI reading dropped only 0.4, from 53.2 to 52.8. The June numbers resulted in the second consecutive month of decline in growth.
Click on graph for larger image.
by Philadelphia Fed
Year over year, profitability (ROA) continued to improve at community banks but was flat at large organizations. Quarterly, ROA was nearly flat in all categories of banks. Year over year, total loans grew at an accelerating rate at community banks and more modestly at large organizations. Most of the loan growth at large organizations was in commercial loans, with real estate loans continuing to shrink. Smaller banks saw an increase in all categories of loans, with commercial loans growing the fastest nationally and real estate loans leading locally.
Gas Prices: Week Ending 23 June 2014
Econintersect: Average gasoline prices rose an average of 1.8 cents nationwide this past week following the previous week's rise of 1.1 cents. Since 06 January 2014, gas prices have risen 36.7 cents a gallon.
Average prices by region and a breakdown by grade follow after "Read more >>".
At the end of the article is a Gas Buddy graphic with access to local gasoline prices anywhere in the country.
by Securities and Exchange Commission
The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged a West Palm Beach, Fla.-based hedge fund advisory firm and its founder with fraudulently shifting money from one investment to another without informing investors. The firm's founder and another individual later pocketed some of the transferred investor proceeds to enrich themselves.
The Wimbledon Championships is the oldest tennis tournament in the world, and widely considered the most prestigious.
from Felix Richter, Statista.com
by Niall McCarthy
According to the United Nations, the number of refugees worldwide exceeded 50 million in 2013, its highest level since the Second World War.
