INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP - NEW BRIEFING
Afghanistan: Exit vs Engagement
Kabul/Islamabad/Brussels, 28 November 2010: U.S. plans to
withdraw its forces from Afghanistan by 2014 would lead to a collapse of
the government in Kabul and serious security risks for the region.
Afghanistan: Exit vs Engagement*,
the latest briefing from the International Crisis Group, warns of the
deep problems that still exist in Afghanistan and of the dire
consequences that can ensue unless the foundations of an effective state
are put in place. U.S. military operations are now entering their tenth
year and policymakers in Washington are looking for a way out. But the
key to fighting the insurgency and bringing about the conditions for a
political settlement in Afghanistan lies in improving security, justice
and governance.
“The exit strategy sounds fairly simple: try to pound the
Taliban, build support by protecting civilians, lure disillusioned
Taliban over to the government and create resilient security forces”,
says Candace Rondeaux, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Afghanistan.
“The problem is that none of this is working”.
NATO partners agreed at the Lisbon summit to a gradual withdrawal
of combat troops with the goal of transitioning to full Afghan control
of security by the end of 2014. In addition, more money will be provided
for economic development. The aim is a dignified drawdown of troops as
public support wanes, while at the same time ensuring that a
post-withdrawal Afghanistan does not become the epicentre of
transnational terrorism. An alluring narrative of a successful
counter-insurgency campaign has begun to take shape, but the storyline
does not match facts on the ground. While success is being measured in
numbers of insurgents killed or captured,
there is little proof that the operations have disrupted the
insurgency’s momentum or increased stability. The Taliban are more
active than ever and they still enjoy sanctuary and support in Pakistan.
Civilian deaths are rising. Half-hearted counter-insurgency efforts
have unsurprisingly failed to produce results.
As violence increases, the Afghan National Security Forces have
proven a poor match for the Taliban. Casualties among Afghan and foreign
forces have spiked as have civilian casualties. Afghanistan still lacks
a cohesive national security strategy and the Afghan military and
police remain dangerously fragmented and highly politicised.
The neglect of governance, an anaemic legal system and weak rule
of law lie at the root of these problems. Too little effort has been
made to develop political institutions, local government and a
functioning judiciary. Insurgents and criminal elements within the
political elite have as a result been allowed to fill the vacuum left by
the weak Afghan state.
“The current rush to cement deals with the insurgents will not
help Afghans nor will it address the very real regional and global
security concerns posed by the breakdown of the Afghan state”, says
Samina Ahmed, Crisis Group’s South Asia Project Director. “Instead, the
key to fighting the insurgency and bringing about the conditions for an
inclusive, sustainable political settlement lies in improving security,
justice and governance and there are few quick fixes in these areas”.
To listen to Candace Rondeaux, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst in Kabul, explain the consequences
of a U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, please click here
