Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Nov. 28, 2010)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

North Korea Shelled South Korea

Shots Fired between Two Koreas
(AP, Nov. 24, 2010) North and South Korea exchanged artillery fire after the North shelled an island near their disputed sea border, killing at least two South Korean marines.
U.S. to Send Carrier for Joint Exercises off Korea
(New York Times, Nov. 24, 2010) President Obama and South Korea’s president agreed Tuesday night to hold joint military exercises as a first response to North Korea’s deadly shelling of a South Korean military installation.
Ma Orders Alert on Korean Conflict
(China Post, Nov. 24, 2010) Both President Ma Ying-jeou and Premier Wu Den-yih have instructed government agencies to heighten alert on the ongoing developments on the Korean Peninsula.
China’s Wen Calls for Peace, Stability on Korean Peninsula
(Bloomberg, Nov. 24, 2010) China’s Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated calls for stability on the Korean peninsula, without signaling any intention to fault ally North Korea for firing a deadly artillery salvo at a South Korean island.
China Address Rising Korean Tensions By Ian Johnson and Martin Fackler (New York Times, Nov. 27, 2010) China engaged in a flurry of diplomatic activity, three days after a North Korean artillery attack on South Korean civilians, but its most public message was directed at the United States, which is about to begin joint exercises with South Korea’s Navy.
U.S. and South Korea Begin Joint Naval Exercises
(New York Times, Nov. 28, 2010) The United States and South Korea began naval exercises on Sunday that were meant as a warning to North Korea for recent provocations.
North Korean Blackmail By Andrei Lankov(IHT, Nov. 25, 2010) The world is likely to say that the North Koreans are again acting “irrationally.” But this is not the case — they are a very rational regime, actually the world’s most Machiavellian.
China Faces a Nettlesome Neighbor in North Korea By Ian Johnson and Michael Wines (New York Times, Nov. 24, 2010) North Korea’s unending appetite for confrontation has left many wondering what its bottom line is, none more so than its supposed patron and big brother, China.
U.S. Aircraft Carrier’s Arrival off Korean Peninsula Also Sends a Message to China By John Pomfret (Washington Post, Nov. 24, 2010) The carrier - with 6,000 sailors and aviators and 75 warplanes - has another audience: China. Exasperated with a lack of help from Beijing on the Korean Peninsula, the Obama administration is trying to pressure China to constrain North Korea.
Pyongyang Tests China’s Patience By Jeremy Page and Jason Dean(Wall Street Journal, Nov. 26, 2010) North Korea's latest act of aggression against the South has prompted a new round of public debate in China on how to manage ties with a neighbor that is at once a close ally but, increasingly, a source of international embarrassment.

Taiwan Held Five-Municipality Election

Taiwanese Rally in Support of Govt
(AP, Nov. 21, 2010) Thousands of government supporters are waving banners and chanting in downtown Taipei to show support for the China-friendly administration ahead of key elections this coming week.
Top KMT Aide to Quit If Party Fails to Win 3 Cities
(CNA, Nov. 23, 2010) The manager of the ruling Kuomintang's election campaigns in five municipalities in Taiwan said that he would step down if the party underperforms in the mayoral elections.
Taiwan Political Parties Clash in Key Mayoral Races
(Wall Street Journal, Nov. 25, 2010) The outcome won't derail Taiwan's moves to strengthen economic ties with the fast-growing giant next door, but it will give the Kuomintang and the DPP a chance to fine-tune policies ahead of a presidential election in 2012.
Taiwan Elections May Hinge on China By Michael Wines(New York Times, Nov. 27, 2010) The nation’s overriding diplomatic issue, relations with the Chinese mainland, is likely to be foremost in analysts’ and scholars’ minds as they parse the results. Taiwan Holds City Elections After Campaign Shooting
(Bloomberg, Nov. 27, 2010) Taiwan voters choose mayors in elections today after Sean Lien, son of Taiwan’s former vice president Lien Chan, was shot and wounded while campaigning for the ruling Kuomintang party on the eve of the ballots.
KMT Wins Taipei, Xinbei, Taichung
(China Post, Nov. 28, 2010) The Kuomintang grabbed Taipei, Xinbei and Taichung, while the Democratic Progressive Party won in Kaohsiung and Tainan in mayoral elections that saw the opposition camp gain the largest share of the vote.
Mayoral Elections Show Increase in Support for DPP By David Young (China Post, Nov. 28, 2010) The political topography did not change after the mayoral elections, but the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party's gains in Xinbei and Taichung were alarming for the ruling Kuomintang.

Cross-Strait Issues

High-Level Cross-Strait Meeting Set for December in Taipei
(CNA, Nov. 25, 2010) Top negotiators of Taipei and Beijing will likely meet in Taipei in mid-December to sign two agreements to carry out a landmark economic pact sealed in June, sources familiar with cross-strait affairs said.
China Turns Up Heat on Taiwan to Talk Politics By Ralph Jennings
(Reuters, Nov. 24, 2010) Chinese officials are mounting pressure on  Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou to move toward political agreements as he shrugs them off despite a recent easing of tension after decades of hostility, analysts say.

U.S.-China Engagement

Who Needs Who? America and China Must Avoid Making Past Mistakes Again By Stephen King (Independent, Nov. 22, 2010) We are witnessing a true revolution in global economic affairs. The engine of economic expansion is no longer to be found in the debt-ridden West. Instead, the emerging nations find themselves in the driving seat of global growth.
Asking China to Act Like the U.S. By Helene Cooper(New York Times, Nov. 28, 2010) A key part of America’s relationship with China now turns on a question that is, at its heart, an impossible conundrum: How to get Beijing to make moves that its leaders don’t think are good for their country?

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

Survey on the Approval Rating of President Ma Ying-jeou and His Administration (GVSRC, Nov. 22, 2010) 34.2 percent of the polled were satisfied with Ma’s performance, dropping 4 percentage from last month.
Canada Gives Taiwanese Visa-Waiver Privileges
(Taipei Times, Nov. 23, 2010) Canada became the 39th country to grant Taiwanese visa-free privileges, the Canadian Trade Office in Taipei (CTOT) announced on its Web site.
EU Approves Plan to Grant Visa-Free Entry to Taiwanese
(Taipei Times, Nov. 26, 2010) The Council of the European Union — the decision-making arm of the EU —agreed to grant visa-free treatment to Taiwanese visitors.
El Salvador Ties Solid, MOFA Says
(Taipei Times, Nov. 24, 2010) Reports by the Associated Press and Reuters cited Salvadorean President Mauricio Funes as saying that he would do what was best business-wise.
Taiwan Exclusion to Last a While By Honigmann Hong(Taipei Times, Nov. 25, 2010) The TPP is Washington’s grand strategy for its Asia-Pacific deployment. Even if Beijing, a complex factor, is excluded, Taiwan is not the US’ first priority at a time when the economic and trade order in the Asia-Pacific is being realigned.

China's Rise and Domestic Issues

China Allows Yuan to Start Trading against Ruble
(Bloomberg, Nov. 22, 2010) China started allowing the yuan to trade against the Russian ruble from today in the interbank market as policy makers promote the currency’s use in global trade and finance.

Japan Policy

JCCI Urges Taiwan, Japan to Ink FTA
(Taipei Times, Nov. 27, 2010) Releasing its second annual White Paper, the Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Taipei urged Taiwan to sign more free-trade agreements with regional economies, especially Japan.

----------------------------------------------