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China and the End of the Deng Dynasty
Beijing has become noticeably more anxious than usual in recent months,
launching one of the more high-profile security campaigns to suppress
political dissent since the aftermath of Tiananmen Square crackdown in
1989. Journalists, bloggers, artists, Christians and others have been
arrested or have disappeared in a crackdown prompted by fears that
foreign forces and domestic dissidents have hatched any number of
“Jasmine” gatherings inspired by recent events in the Middle East. More
remarkable than the small, foreign-coordinated protests, however, has
been the state’s aggressive and erratic reaction to them.
Meanwhile, the Chinese economy has maintained a furious pace of
credit-fueled growth despite authorities’ repeated claims of working to
slow growth down to prevent excessive inflation and systemic financial
risks. The government’s cautious approach to fighting inflation has
emboldened local governments and state companies, which benefit from
rapid growth. Yet the risk to socio-political stability posed by
inflation, expected to peak in springtime, has provoked a gradually
tougher stance. The government thus faces twin perils of economic
overheating on one side and overcorrection on the other, either of which
could trigger an outburst of social unrest — and both of which have led
to increasingly erratic policymaking. Read more »
