Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Monday 30 April 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Apr. 29, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
Bo Xilai's Ouster and China's Leadership Succession
Ousted Chinese Leader Is Said to Have Spied on Other Top Officials (New York Times, Apr. 26, 2012) The story of how China’s president was monitored shows the level of mistrust among leaders in the one-party state.
In China, a Fall from Grace May Aid a Rise to Power By Edward Wong (New York Times, Apr. 27, 2012) People in Beijing say Mr. Bo Xilai might have sought to eclipse Mr. Xi if he had made it to the Politburo Standing Committee, and so Mr. Xi is emerging from Bo’s scandal with greater standing as China’s once-a-decade leadership transition enters its final months.
In China, Relatives of Party Officials Build Lucrative Business on Family Contacts By Andrew Higgins (Washington Post, Apr. 24, 2012) The role — and riches — of China’s princelings has become a particularly touchy issue in the run-up to a party congress this fall that is expected to elevate Vice President Xi Jinping, the son of a Mao-era revolutionary hero, to the summit of power in Beijing.
Sino-Philippine Standoff in South China Sea
China-Russia Navy Drills Raise New Tensions
(AFP, Apr. 23, 2012) News of the exercises came as Japan splashed billions of dollars through the countries of the Mekong delta - Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos and Burma - to offset China's growing influence.
US Wades into China-Philippine Standoff
(Asia Times, Apr. 24, 2012) US Commander of the Marines in the Pacific, Lieutenant General Duane Thiessen, reaffirmed the US's commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty in response to a question about whether the US would provide assistance in a scenario where Chinese forces attacked Philippine units at Scarborough Shoal.
PRC Ambiguity Risks Sea Clashes, Crisis Group Says
(AP, Apr. 24, 2012) China is deploying more surveillance and paramilitary ships to the South China Sea without a clear legal framework to assert its ambiguous territorial claims, risking more confrontations, a report said.
Shoal Mates
(The Economist, Apr. 28, 2012) The ambiguity of China’s behaviour may be like the ambiguity of America’s defense treaty with the Philippines: it keeps antagonists guessing. But chicken can be a dangerous game.
Muddy Waters By Patrick M. Cronin(New York Times, Apr. 25, 2012) China is testing the waters and sending signals but nothing more, and the United States and its allies should respond with precise, measured steps to ensure it doesn’t push the limits too far.
Sino-Philippine Tension and Trade Both Rising amid Scarborough Standoff By Samantha Hoffman (China Brief 12(9), Jamestown Foundation, Apr. 26, 2012) There is reason to be concerned about the possibility of the standoff escalating to armed conflict, but there is also reason to be hopeful that both China and the Philippines have a threshold they will choose not to cross.
China Activist Escapes and Sheltered by the U.S.
Challenge for U.S. After Escape by China Activist
(New York Times, Apr. 28, 2012) The escape of a blind rights lawyer from extralegal house arrest dealt a major embarrassment to the Chinese government and left the United States, which may be sheltering him, with a new diplomatic quandary as it seeks to improve its fraught relationship with Beijing.
A New Pawn in China’s Two Tugs of War By Jane Perlez(New York Times, Apr. 29, 2012) The case of the lawyer, Chen Guangcheng, who is believed to be in the United States Embassy in Beijing, poses a quandary for the Chinese leadership.
Cross-Strait Issues
Hsu Lays Out China Policy for Young DPP Members
(Taipei Times, Apr. 27, 2012) Hsu Hsin-liang said he favored the “constitutional consensus” advocated by former premier Frank Hsieh over Tsai’s “Taiwan consensus,” because consensus on a constitution would incorporate a broader swathe of public opinion and therefore hopefully end internal division over Taiwanese identity.
Taiwan Set for Chinese Invasion - of Investors By Ralph Jennings(Christian Science Monitor, Apr. 26, 2012) Taiwan’s economy, the world’s 19th largest, is poised to grow significantly this year as officials open pipelines to new investment from China, capitalizing on an old political foe that has recently agreed to talk business.
U.S. Policy and Sino-U.S. Engagement
China Seeks to Star in South Pacific By Lucy Craymer(Wall Street Journal, Apr. 26, 2012) China is quietly extending its influence among poor island nations dotted across the South Pacific, encroaching in a region of strategic importance to the U.S.
U.S. Is Seeing Positive Signs from China By Mark Landler and Steven Lee Myers (New York Times, Apr. 27, 2012) To some seasoned observers of China, these developments are less a harbinger of a new era of cooperation between Beijing and Washington than evidence that, at least for now, the interests of the two countries coincide in some important areas.
Military Balance and Arms Sales
‘Carrier Killer’ Program Goes Ahead
(Taipei Times, Apr. 28, 2012) Despite hitting a snag in a recent bidding process, the navy is proceeding with the development of a stealth 500-tonne fast attack missile boat that is already being hailed as Taiwan’s “carrier killer.”
U.S. Says It Is ‘Seriously Considering’ Selling More F-16 Fighters to Taiwan (Wall Street Journal, Apr. 29, 2012) A White House letter promising the U.S. would give "serious consideration" to selling Taiwan new F-16 fighter jets has reopened the sensitive topic of weapons sales to the island ahead of top-level U.S.-China meetings next week.
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Ma’s Disapproval Rating Increases to 62.5%: Poll
(CNA, Apr. 28, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou's disapproval rating rose to 62.5 percent in April, and 44 percent of local voters feel they chose the wrong candidate in the 2012 presidential election, according to a recent poll conducted by Taiwan Thinktank.
Taiwan Still Needs Plenty of Reform By Lee Teng-hui(Taipei Times, Apr. 26, 2012) If Taiwan is to continue to progress, we need to rely on the public and on social movements: We can no longer look to the political parties. Indeed, there is no room for any party that works counter to the will of the public.
Singapore Envoy Emphasizes Trade
(China Post, Apr. 25, 2012) Taiwan's new representative to Singapore said that speeding up bilateral trade agreement talks between the two countries will be a top priority after he arrives in the city-state next month.
Liberalized Economy Brings Prosperity: AIT
(CNA, Apr. 27, 2012) Taiwan should liberalize its economy to ensure future prosperity and integration into the global market, a senior American Institute in Taiwan official said.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
For Beijing, No Easy Path for Change
(Reuters, Apr. 23, 2012) Even with structural change, the Chinese economy is likely to grow at a rate nearer 5 percent than 10 percent by the end of the decade. Its mainly poor population will be aging rapidly and its companies will face stronger foreign competition in developed markets.
China Slows Down, and Grows Up By Ruchir Sharma(New York Times, Apr. 26, 2012) A smooth downshift to 6 or 7 percent growth rate makes China a more normal rival, one the world can do business with and compete head to head against — one that should generate a lot less worry.
Awaiting the ‘Fifth Modernization’ By Joschka Fisher(Project Syndicate, Apr. 29, 2012) The contribution of Asia — China in particular — to the development of universal values is not yet foreseeable, but it will surely come if the “fifth modernization” leads to China’s political transformation. Beijing’s course as a world power will be determined to a significant extent by the way it confronts this question.
Regional Issues
China Makes Veiled Warning to North Korea Not to Carry Out Nuclear Test (Reuters, Apr. 25, 2012) China issued a veiled warning to neighboring North Korea not to carry out what is widely expected to be an imminent nuclear test.
Vietnam Hosts US, China Navies
(AFP, Apr. 25, 2012) A Chinese naval ship is visiting Ho Chi Minh City, state media said, as the US and Vietnam continue a separate week-long naval exchange amid rising tensions in the South China Sea.

----------------------------------------------
Regards,
Dalton LinEditor, Taiwan Security Research
E-mail: daltonlin@ntu.edu.tw, Taiwan Security Research: taiwansecurity.org
Posted by Roberto Abraham Scaruffi at 00:39