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How a Libyan No-fly Zone Could Backfire
Calls are growing for a no-fly zone over Libya, but a power or coalition of powers willing to enforce one remains elusive.
In evaluating such calls, it is useful to remember that in war, Murphy’s
Law always lurks. What can go wrong will go wrong, in Libya as in Iraq
or Afghanistan.
Complications to Airstrikes
It has been pointed out that a no-fly zone is not an antiseptic act. In
order to protect the aircraft enforcing the no-fly zone, one must begin
by suppressing enemy air defenses. This in turn poses an intelligence
problem. Precisely what are Libyan air defenses and where are they
located? It is possible to assert that Libya has no effective air
defenses and that an SEAD (suppression of enemy air defenses) attack is
therefore unnecessary. But that makes assumptions that cannot be
demonstrated without testing, and the test is dangerous. At the same
time, collecting definitive intelligence on air defenses is not as easy
as it might appear — particularly as the opposition and thieves alike
have managed to capture heavy weapons and armored vehicles, meaning that
air defense assets are on the move and under uncertain control. Read more »
