Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday, 1 April 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Apr. 1, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
Bo Xilai's Ouster and China's Leadership Succession
U.K. Seeks Probe of Briton’s Death in China By Michael Wines and Sharon LaFraniere (New York Times, Mar. 27, 2012) The British government said that it has asked China to investigate the death of a British citizen with apparent ties to the family of Bo Xilai.
Inside Elite Chinese Circle, Brit Came to Fear for His Life By Jeremy Page (Wall Street Journal, Mar. 31, 2012) Neil Heywood, the Briton whose death in China is at the center of a Chinese political crisis, told friends he feared for his safety because he had fallen out with the wife of a senior Communist Party leader, according to people familiar with the matter.
Bo Xilai’s China Crime Crackdown Adds to Scandal By Sharon LaFraniere and Jonathan Ansfield (New York Times, Mar. 27, 2012) As Bo Xilai becomes immersed in an ever-more tangled scandal, disturbing details are emerging about one of his best-known initiatives, a crusade against organized crime on which he built a national reputation.
China’s Hierarchy Strives to Regain By Jonathan Ansfield and Ian Johnson (New York Times, Mar. 30, 2012) China’s top leaders are retaking the initiative after the country’s worst political crisis in a generation, showcasing a united front and moving forward with plans for a major leadership reshuffle later this year.
China Punishes Popular Social Media and Website for Coup Rumors amid Political Scandal (AP, Mar. 31, 2012) China is closing a dozen websites, penalizing two popular social media sites and detaining six people for circulating rumors of a coup that rattled Beijing in the midst of its worst high-level political crisis in years.
China’s Reformers: MIA By Russell Leigh-Moses(China Real Times Report, Mar. 28, 2012) With the removal of Chongqing Party Secretary Bo Xilai earlier this month, the hope in many circles was that the Leftists he represented were a spent political force. The reality on the ground has quickly killed off those hopes.
'1 Country, 2 Areas' and Cross-Strait Issues
MAC Denies Early ‘1 Country, 2 Areas’ Knowledge
(China Post, Mar. 27, 2012) Mainland Affairs Council Minister Lai Shin-yuan said she had not been informed beforehand about the controversial “one country, two areas” comments made in China last week by KMT Honorary Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung.
Wu-Hu Meeting Sees Major Results: China Spokesman
(CNA, Mar. 29, 2012) A recent high-level cross-strait meeting has produced major results, including consensus that the ties between Taiwan and China are not state-to-state relations, China's Taiwan Affairs Office spokesman Yang Yi said.
Redefining the ‘Two Areas’ Concept By Tung Chen-yuan(Taipei Times, Apr. 1, 2012) Cross-strait relations should be defined as special relations between areas within and without the borders of ROC jurisdiction, and not as domestic relations. Not only does such a definition accord with the ROC Constitution and political reality, it could also be a common denominator for cross-strait political interaction.
Ma Hopes to Deepen Cross-Strait Cooperation at Boao
(Taipei Times, Mar. 31, 2012) Vice president-elect Wu Den-yih will also attend the forum as a senior advisor of the Cross-Strait Common Market Foundation. He is scheduled to meet Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang on Sunday and address cross-strait issues.
Wu Travels to Hainan Island for Boao Forum
(China Post, Apr. 1, 2012) Vice President-elect Wu Den-yih arrived in Sanya on Hainan Island, as leader of a Taiwan delegation to attend the Boao Forum for Asia.
ECFA Effect Yet to be Seen: French Official
(CNA, Mar. 26, 2012) The economic effect of the Taiwan-China trade pact remains to be seen, although the pact is an incentive to attract foreign companies to set up business in Taiwan, according to an official from the France Taiwan Chamber of Commerce and Industry.
U.S. Policy and Sino-U.S. Engagement
US Might Operate Spy Drones from Australian Territory
(Taipei Times, Mar. 29, 2012) Australia said it might allow the US to use its territory to operate long-range spy drones. Washington and Canberra could also reportedly station US aircraft carriers and nuclear-powered attack submarines in the western Australian city of Perth.
‘Chess, Not China’ behind US Troop Moves in Australia, Says US Ambassador Jeffrey Bleich (Australian, Apr. 1, 2012) The deployment of 2500 US Marines in Australia is aimed at putting America’s “chess pieces in the right places” not in response to the growth of China, the US Ambassador to Australia Jeffrey Bleich says.
Abandoning Taiwan Is ‘Unthinkable,’ Ex-Obama Administration Official Says (Taipei Times, Mar. 28, 2012) “There is a pretty strong consensus” in Washington “about the importance of Taiwan” said Jeffery Bader, who added that his view significantly reflected those of his former colleges in the NSC and the US Department of State.
U.S. and China Joust for Influence in Myanmar By Jane Perlez(New York Times, Mar. 31, 2012) With the United States reasserting itself in Asia, and an emboldened China projecting military and economic power as never before, each side is doing whatever it can to gain the favor of economically struggling, strategically placed Myanmar.
U.S. Weighs Easing Curbs on Chinese Access to High Tech By James T. Areddy (Wall Street Journal, Mar. 28, 2012) U.S. officials are signaling a rethink of guidelines that now block China's access to certain technologies for military reasons, both to spur U.S. exports and to address complaints from Beijing that the policy is discriminatory.
Military Balance and Arms Sales
US Navy Cuts May Endanger Taiwan: Report By William Lowther(Taipei Times, Mar. 31, 2012) Any reduction in US naval forces in the Pacific cold not only provoke a Chinese military build-up, but make other nations look to China, the US report said.
Academic Says Closer Ties Offer Chance of Cross-Strait Military Interactions (Taipei Times, Mar. 27, 2012) The easing of tensions across the Taiwan Strait offers chances for interaction between Taiwan’s military and China’s People’s Liberation Army, an academic said.
Taiwan Navy Sailing Ahead with Indigenous Submarine Program By Russell Hsiao and Jyh-perng Wang (China Brief 12(7), Jamestown Foundation, Mar. 30, 2012) The latest move by the Ma administration to move forward with the indigenous submarine development program after his re-election may represent a realignment in the domestic political environment and growing concerns about China’s military deployments.
U.S. Beef Row and Taiwan's Foreign Relations
Beef Solution Would Aid Trade: Bader
(Taipei Times, Mar. 28, 2012) The US will withhold support for Taiwan’s accession to the Trans-Pacific Partnership if the lingering dispute over a ban on imports of US beef containing trace amounts of ractopamine remains unresolved, Jeffrey Bader said.
President Calls for US to Approve Visa Exemption
(CNA, Mar. 27, 2012) President Ma thanked the US government for its arms sales, and for supporting Taiwan’s participation at world events, during a meeting with Jeff Bader.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
Wen Signals Something New By Francesco Sisci(PacNet #20, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Mar. 26, 2012) After years of delay, crackdowns, and failures, the time seems to have arrived for political reform in China.
Change in China Steadily Wrought by Internet By Andrew S. Ross(San Francisco Chronicle, Mar. 31, 2012) Democratization is necessary, for reforms need to go forward, but there’s also a need for stability. Anything that veers from stability is not welcome.
For Group of 5 Nations, Acronym Is Easy, but Common Ground Is Hard By Jim Yardley (New York Times, Mar. 29, 2012) For now, the BRICS are troubled by internal rivalries and contradictions that have stymied the group’s ability to take any significant action toward a primary goal: reforming Western-dominated international financial institutions.
BRICS Leaders Fail to Create Rival to World Bank
(New York Times, Mar. 30, 2012) The leaders of the BRICS nations emphasized their mutual good will and their growing economic power, but fell short of achieving the tangible goal most discussed before the gathering: the establishment of a new development agency to rival the World Bank.
Chinese City in New Bid to Allow Citizens to Invest Overseas By Lingling Wei (Wall Street Journal, Mar. 28, 2012) Officials in the Chinese city of Wenzhou have launched a new attempt to allow residents of the city to invest directly offshore, a move that would mark a small but significant step toward opening the country's capital account.
Economist: World Bank Suggestions for China Reform “Garbage” By Liyan Qi and Tom Orlik (China Real Time Report, Mar. 27, 2012) The World Bank’s 2030 report on the reform priorities for the Chinese economy is “mainly garbage” according to an economist at Beijing’s Renmin University.
Chinese Economy Follows Japan By Jeffrey Frankel(Project Syndicate, Mar. 29, 2012) China faces a similar demographic trend and also a push to unleash household consumption in order to sustain GDP growth. As in Japan, the downward trend in China’s saving rate will show up in its current account. The laws of international economics still apply.
Regional Issues
Obama: US and China Will Coordinate Response to North Korea Rocket Launch (Guardian, Mar. 26, 2012) The US and China have agreed to co-ordinate their response if North Korea goes through with a planned rocket launch next month, a day after Barack Obama urged Beijing to use its influence to rein in its unpredictable ally.
North Korea Pushes Back at Obama’s Criticism, Says It Will Never Cancel Rocket Launch Plans (AP, Mar. 27, 2012) North Korea rebuffed President Barack Obama’s criticism of its plans to launch a satellite aboard a rocket, calling his stance confrontational and vowing to go forward with what it insisted was a peaceful mission.
Gillard: Huawei Blocked on National Interest Grounds
(Wall Street Journal, Mar. 29, 2012) Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard said national-interest concerns led the government to prevent Huawei Technologies Co.'s local unit from tendering for contracts linked to the country's broadband network.
Time for an Alliance Caucus By Nicole Forrester(PacNet #21, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Mar. 27, 2012) The transnational nature of current Asia-Pacific security challenges highlights the limitations of bilateral US-ally relationships to handle regional security threats, traditional or not. Success demands that the US and its allies work with each other in a networked manner.
MOFA Reiterates Claim Over Island
(Taipei Times, Apr. 1, 2012) The Ministry of Foreign Affairs reiterated its position that the Republic of China “has indisputable sovereignty” over Jhongye Island in the South China Sea, in response to the Philippines’ plan to construct a pier in the disputed region.

Posted by Roberto Abraham Scaruffi at 12:51