Roberto Abraham Scaruffi: Global Economic Intersection

Saturday 13 July 2013

Global Economic Intersection

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Articles posted on Saturday, 13 July 2013
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Trefis: Highlights Week Ending 12 July 2013

Written by Trefis
Below is a summary of the activity at Trefis during the past week that Trefis thought Econintersect readers would find interesting.
Trefis is a financial community structured around trends, forecasts and insights related to some of the most popular stocks in the US. It provides the unique feature of allowing the user to model future valuation based upon projected changes in components of each business. It also provides communication capabilities among members, including consensus of member analysis compared to Trefis staff analysis and blogging opportunities for members.

Click on graphic for larger image and go to Trefis interactive page.
Click "Read more..." to see our clickable table of contents and most covered companies of the week.



What We Read Today 13 July 2013

Econintersect: Click Read more >> below graphic to see today's list.

The top of today's reading list has an assessment that "Europe's debt-crisis strategy is near collapse" ........ and the last article is about a bipartisan attempt to reinstate Glass-Steagall.



US to deliver fighter jets to Egypt despite coup uncertainty

The United States plans delivery of four F-16 fighter jets to Egypt, despite the Egyptian military's removal of President Mohamed Morsi. Washington has no labeled the Egyptian overhaul a 'coup' as that would bar assistance to Egypt.



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Just One More Reason For the Crappy U.S. Economy

Written by Steven Hansen
This past week saw the release of consumer credit data for May. At first I was surprised by the significant difference between the adjusted and unadjusted data.
  • The adjusted data was suggesting consumer credit growth was accelerating;
  • The unadjusted data was consumer credit growth was slightly decelerating for the last 3 months (see figure 2 blue line below).
Read more >>



French Business Goes On the Offensive

Written by Hilary Barnes
France's top business leaders have launched an appeal to the socialist government of President Francois Hollande to recognise that it is only business than can generate jobs and save the economy, not the public sector.
ride-into-battle



August Could Be a Tough Month for Gold

Written by Poly, Zentrader
gold-dismay-160pxIf gold's Investor Cycle Low were behind us, then this would be one weak and lifeless 1st Daily Cycle. Typically the rally after a bloodbath Investor Cycle Low is impressive enough where you just know it's a 1st Daily Cycle. It doesn't necessarily need to be a V like rally, but in general you should see broad buying day after day and strong daily closes. By Day 10, a 1st Daily Cycle has typically gone a long way to recovering much of the previous drop, but here gold has barely made a dent into recovering any.



Infographic of the Day: Exposing the Student Loan Racket

Student loan debt, now at $830 billion, has surpassed credit card debt-a statement unheard of 20 years ago. Student loans, unlike any other form of debt, CANNOT be forgiven via bankruptcy-these loans MUST be repaid. Is this the next bubble to burst?



Not All Fed Governors Agree with Bernanke

Fed's Plosser: Wind Down Stimulus Programs This Year
Special Report from Investing.com
by Investing.com Staff, Investing.com
plosser-160pxThe Federal Reserve should consider winding down its monetary stimulus programs later this year, Charles Plosser, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said Friday.
The Federal Reserve is currently buying USD85 billion in assets such as Treasury holdings and mortgage debt a month from banks to keep interest rates low, a monetary policy tool known as quantitative easing designed to jump start economic recovery.



North Dakota: Real GDP Per Capita Grows with Bakken Production

Special Report from the U.S. EIA
by U.S. Energy Information Administration
In recent years, North Dakota has seen significant gains in real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, coinciding with development of the Bakken shale play. In 2001, North Dakota's GDP per capita was well below the U.S. average, ranking 38th out of 50 states. Starting in 2004, the state's GDP per capita rose consistently each year, eventually surpassing the U.S. average in 2008. By 2012, its real GDP per capita was $55,250, more than 29% above the national average. Even though the state appeared to be closing the gap on the U.S. average before Bakken production began, the rising oil and gas production likely contributed to the economic growth the state has enjoyed.
Click on graph for larger image.
North-Dakota-gdp-growth
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, based on U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.



Ignore Headline, Unemployment Claims Improvement Continues

As Unemployment Claims Steadily Improve, Chances of Runaway Stock Market Bubble Remain High
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner
The latest weekly jobless claims data accelerated to faster than trend, declining at an annual rate around 12%. The July 6 reporting week had a slightly below normal increase in claims for the first week of July. The rate of improvement in the claims data does not support the gains in stock prices however. They remain dangerously extended relative to the improvement in the jobs market. That extension seems likely to get worse if stocks enter a parabolic blowoff phase. This would play into the hands of FOMC hawks who want to cut back QE.
The Labor Department reported that the seasonally adjusted (SA) representation of first time claims for unemployment rose by 16,000 to 360,000 from a revised 344,000 (was 343,000) in the advance report for the week ended July 6, 2013. The consensus estimate of economists of 345,000 for the SA headline number was too optimistic (see footnote 1).
The headline seasonally adjusted data is the only data the media reports but the Department of Labor (DOL) also reports the actual data, not seasonally adjusted (NSA). The DOL said in the current press release,
'The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 384,829 in the week ending July 6, an increase of 49,778 from the previous week. There were 442,192 initial claims in the comparable week in 2012.' [Added emphasis mine] See footnote 2.



Dismal U.S. Consumer Spending to Drag Us Back into Recession?

Written by Michael Lombardi, Profit Confidential
While the mainstream economists were quick to believe that theU.S. economy is growing as the key stock indices suggest, I stood by my opinion that it isn't.
After the first estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the U.S. economy came out, a wave of optimism struck and stock markets rallied. It seemed as if everything was headed in the right direction.
Sadly, they were wrong.



North America Leads the Way in Mobile Monetization

by Felix Richter, Statista.com
statistalogo
Global mobile advertising revenue nearly doubled in 2012, increasing from $4.9 billion to $9.1 billion. That's according to a study conducted by the Interactive Advertising Bureau and market intelligence group IHS. The report identifies the Asia/Pacific region as the largest mobile ad market in the world with revenue of $3.66 billion in 2012. At $3.63 billion, the North American market is just slightly smaller and Europe follows third with mobile ad spend of $1.54 billion.