Energy Reserves Present Shifting Targets
What does the New British Petroleum Report Tell Us?
Written by Sig Silber
British Petroleum has just released their 2014 Edition of their Statistical Review of World Energy and it can be found here.
What are the major take away messages?
Market Commentary: DOW Closes Above 17,000 low volume prevails throughout session
Closing Market Commentary For 07-03-2014
Short day for the US Markets, closing at 1 pm in observance of the Fourth Of July Holiday.
At 1 pm the DOW closed above the 17,000 mark for the first time and the SP500 also closed at a new high at 1985.59. The problem I see with this bullish behavior is that the volume levels are pathetic and not conducive to positive bullish thinking. A hillbilly might put it this way, 'This ain't right'.
Stratfor: Iraq - Examining the Professed Caliphate
from STRATFOR
The Islamic State, previously known as the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, has changed its name, but otherwise the militant group remains the same. Over the past weekend, a spokesman for the group announced that it had established a caliphate stretching from Diyala province, Iraq, to Aleppo, Syria. The caliphate is a political institution that the Islamic State claims will govern the global Muslim community. "Iraq" and "Levant" have been dropped from the organization's name to reflect its new status.
Read more >>
More Than 163,000 Homes with a Reconstruction Value of $37.5 Billion at Risk of Property Damage from Hurricane Arthur Storm Surge
from CoreLogic
The data shows 163,274 total residential properties with a reconstruction value of $35,734,348,993 are in the area currently known as the "cone of uncertainty" and at risk of potential storm-surge damage, assuming Hurricane Arthur hits the coast as a Category 1 hurricane.
Market Commentary: New Highs Again, Most Trading In narrow Band On Anemic Volume
Midday Market Commentary For 07-03-2014
More new highs for the averages as the SP500 marks 1984.21 and the DOW melts up to 17068.34 on below average volume. It doesn't take much brain power to figure out the Wall Street Mechanics are playing with the numbers and probably the 'Sheeples' are clamoring to get aboard the train.
Is sex ban to blame for World Cup losses
Abstaining from sex does not increase sports performance. The World Cup teams from Russia Bosnia and Herzegovina Chile and Mexico were banned from having sex during the course of the tournament and each has been eliminated due to losses.
27 June 2014: ECRI's WLI Growth Again Unchanged
ECRI's WLI Growth Index continues to show growth - remaining in positive territory and at a level again unchanged from the previous week. A positive number predicts economic expansion to come within the next six months. ECRI's Inflation Index was updated this week and is discussed below.
Market Commentary: Markets Open To New Record Highs On Good Employment Numbers
Opening Market Commentary For 07-03-2014
Premarkets were high, then moved to low and finally high again at +0.30% indicating a gap up for the SP500 and setting new highs.
The SP500 did gap up at the opening setting a new high at 1981.12 and the DOW broke 17,000 sliding up to 17028.28 on high volume before settling in for the day. Watch out for some heavy volatility and sudden deep reversals this morning. I am expecting retracement to below yesterdays close before the session ends.
June 2014 ISM Services Index Softens Marginally
Written by Steven Hansen
The June 2014 ISM non-manufacturing (aka services) index continues its growth cycle, but declined marginally from 56.3 to 56.0 (above 50 signals expansion). Important internals continued to show strong expansion - but the direction of movements were mixed.
This was within the range of market forecasts of 54.5 to 58.5 (consensus 56.2).
Read more >>
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28 June 2014 Unemployment Claims 4 Week Average Marginally Worsens
Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting the weekly intial unemployment claims at 307,000 to 325,000 (consensus 314,000) vs the 315,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving averagemoved from 314,250 (reported last week as 314,250) to 315,000.
May 2014 Trade Data is Mixed
Written by Steven Hansen
A quick recap to the Mau 2014 trade data released today shows a mixed picture of the economy - with the unadjusted data saying import growth decelerated month-over-month whilst exports marginally strengthened. The trade balance remains on the high side, and this is a growing headwind to 2Q2014 GDP.
Read more >>
BLS Jobs Situation Again Strong in June 2014
Written by Steven Hansen
The June 2014 BLS jobs report headlines again were fairly strong. The unadjusted data also says this report is relatively strong. The data continues to trend in the right direction.
Read more >>
Job Cuts Drop to Lowest Level of 2014
31,434 JUNE JOB CUTS; 246,034 CUTS YEAR-TO-DATE DOWN 5% FROM 2013
from Challenger Gray and Christmas
After climbing to a 15-month high in May, planned job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in June plunged 41 percent to 31,434, the lowest one-month total so far this year. Through the first half of 2014, the pace of job cutting is down 5.0 percent from a year ago
What We Read Today 03 July 2014
Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
- Jaitley Denounces Mindless Populism Ahead of India Budget (Siddhartha Singh and Unni Krishnan, Bloomberg) The new budget, the first under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, may see cutbacks in food, fuel and fertilizer subsidies to the poor and an increase capital spending on infrastructure.
Climbing A Wall of Worry
Investing Daily Article of the Week
by Brian O'Connell, Investing Daily
Stock investors track the U.S. economy tightly, like a barnacle on the hull of a boat. And these days, that tracking mindset is sliding underwater.
FATCA: Congressional Idiocy
Is H.R. 2847 the Worst Proposed Law of the Year?
Considering how inept and indeed, criminal, Congress is, to call something the "worst" law really says a lot. But that is my opinion, and I'll let you be the judge.
Look At This Stock - SVA
by Jeff Pierce, Zentrader
SVA has been on a tear since 2012 and has recently pulled back to work off some of it's overbought condition. While there is a risk of this pulling back further, I think now is a good time to initiate a starter position as this could retest it's highs in the coming months. I like the position of the RSI here and as it gets closer to 40. Typically that is an area after a big run-up it finds support. Keep this on your watchlist.
Limited Government Is A Vain Hope
by David Gordon, Mises.org
Lew Rockwell has set himself a difficult task. He has written Against the State, not for the already convinced libertarian, eager to discuss the latest theoretical refinements, but rather for the concerned citizen who senses that something is wrong with our political system and wonders what to do about it. Such readers are apt to recoil in horror at the mention of anarchism, but it is precisely Rockwell's aim to convert such skeptical readers to anarcho-capitalism, of the sort defended by Murray Rothbard.
An ISIS Caliphate is Bad News for Iraq, Syria and Everywhere Else
by Mathieu Guidere, The Conversation
After the death of Osama Bin Laden in May 2011, the global jihadist movement seemed to have become fragmented and considerably weakened. This happened for various reasons. First, the coincidence of the al-Qaeda leader's death with the start of the Arab Spring suggested to many in the region that they could change their regimes without the help of al-Qaeda.
Tropical Storm Arthur as of Early Thursday 03 July
Econintersect: The first tropical storm of the season is expected to possibly become a Category 1 hurricane or remain a strengthening tropical storm as it travels up the east coast of the U.S. As of late Wednesday am it was expected to impact the shoreline from Wilmington, NC to Cape Hatteras and then move more toward the northeast, sparing much of the northeastern U.S, but possibly clipping Cape Cod before hitting Nova Scotia in Canada.
Consumers Are Willing to Pay a Price for Sustainability
by Felix Richter, Statista.com
On a global scale, the percentage of consumers willing to pay a premium for sustainable products and services increased from 45% in 2011 to 55% in 2014.
Is There a Trade-off Between Low Bond Risk Premiums and Financial Stability?
from the Chicago Fed
It has been suggested that financial instability may be more likely following periods of low bond market risk premiums. The timing of past episodes of instability casts doubt upon the hypothesis that low levels of risk premiums sow the seeds of future instability. It has been suggested that financial instability may be more likely following periods of low bond market risk premiums. The timing of past episodes of instability casts doubt upon the hypothesis that low levels of risk premiums sow the seeds of future instability.
May 2014 Manufacturing New Orders Contracts As Well As Unfilled Orders
Written by Steven Hansen
[Editors Note: This post was delayed due to problems at the US Census Website]
US Census says manufacturing new orders declined. Our analysis agrees but indicates the decline was even worse. Although the data was soft - the big headwind this month was from civilian and military aircraft.
Read more >>
Infographic of the Day: How Powerful Is Your Passport?
We may live in a world defined by invisible meta-data and the cloud, but the roughly 3x5 inch booklet known as the passport still carries a lot of weight.
