Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Feb. 12, 2012)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Xi Jinping to Visit Washington

In Charged Moment, China’s Political Heir Tries Introducing Himself to U.S. By Michael Wines and Edward Wong (New York Times, Feb. 12, 2012) In meetings with Mr. Xi at the White House, a stock list of economic demands seems likely to dominate Mr. Obama’s side of the conversation, according to officials in Washington.

Bull in the China Shop By Daniel Blumenthal(Foreign Policy, Feb. 10, 2012) Does Washington's top-level engagement with China matter? Yes, it does. Even though Xi will be limited in what he can accomplish, the need for very close coordination on strategic matters is vital to continued stability in Asia, especially in light of the Obama administration's attempt to focus more attention and resources on the region.

China Sees “Trust Deficit” Before Xi’s U.S. Trip
(Reuters, Feb. 7, 2012) China and the United States suffer a “trust deficit” that Vice President Xi Jinping’s trip to Washington could help ease, a Chinese diplomat said in a speech, playing down Chinese fears about a U.S. “pivot” towards Asia.

US Paper Outlines Topics for Xi’s Washington Visit
(Taipei Times, Feb. 10, 2012) A special briefing paper prepared for members and committees of US Congress issued yesterday by the Congressional Research Service puts Taiwan at the bottom of the list.

China’s Mr. Xi Goes to Wary Washington By Simon Tisdall(Guardian, Feb. 7, 2012) Increasing US assertiveness could mean tough times ahead for Beijing’s would-be masters of the universe.

China Leader-in-Waiting Carries Heavy Political Baggage to U.S. By Chris Buckley (Reuters, Feb. 8, 2012) Vice President Xi's visit to the United States next week will enhance his aura of readiness to lead China from late this year. It could also set the mood for the next decade that he is likely to serve as president, an era when Sino-U.S. relations face deep and potentially troublesome shifts.

U.S. Gears Up to Reset Tone with Beijing By Nathan Hodge, Laura Meckler and Sudeep Reddy (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 11, 2012) The Obama administration is gearing up for next week's visit by Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, expected to become the country's next leader, as a once-in-a-decade chance to set the tone in relations between Washington and Beijing.

Ten Questions for China’s Heir Presumptive By David Shambaugh(New York Times, Feb. 11, 2012) Here are 10 questions China watchers would like to know about Xi Jinping.

U.S. Beef Row

Gov’t to Mull Ractopamine Approval: Chen
(China Post, Feb. 7, 2012) Ractopamine is one of few types among the 22 known leanness-promoting feed additives that may be considered for approval in Taiwan but the government will not set preconditions for lifting the ban on U.S. beef containing the chemical, new Premier Sean Chen said.

Ex-VP Lu, 5 DPP Counties, Cities Dig in Heels Over Ractopamine Beef Row (China Post, Feb. 8, 2012) Ex-Vice President Annette Lu urged the public to boycott U.S. beef, while leaders of five pan-green counties and cities claimed a united front against ractopamine.

Getting Beyond Beef in U.S.-Taiwan Relations By Don Shapiro(Brookings, February 2012) While Ma improved U.S.-Taiwan relations in large part by enhancing peace and stability, however, not all was well with the U.S.-Taiwan relationship.

U.S. Policy and Sino-U.S. Engagement

We’re All State Capitalists Now By Niall Ferguson(Foreign Policy, Feb. 9, 2012) The debate about whether America or China will ultimately triumph is a red herring that distracts us from the real contest of our time.

Nominee to Lead US Pacific Command Supports the TRA
(Taipei Times, Feb. 12, 2012) The nominee for US Pacific Command commander has expressed his firm support for the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), which obliges Washington to help Taipei defend itself.

PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales

PLA Sorties Threaten Encirclement By J. Michael Cole
(Taipei Times, Feb. 9, 2012) Sorties by the Chinese navy into the Pacific Ocean are becoming more commonplace and provide it with the means to familiarize itself with the environment surrounding Taiwan.

Taipei Cuts Budget for F-16 Upgrades
(Taipei Times, Feb. 10, 2012) With less money than is needed to acquire everything released by the US in September, Taiwan’s air force will have to make some tough choices.

Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations

Lessons from Taiwan By L. C. Russell Hsiao and H. H. Michael Hsiao(The Diplomat, Feb. 7, 2012) The onus is on Ma to live up to his re-election promise to include the opposition in formulating a “national” cross-Strait policy. But Washington should take active measures to shore up Taiwan’s sovereignty, while the Chinese Communist Party should think out of the box and engage the DPP.

Challenges Facing the New Cabinet By Tung Chen-yuan(Taipei Times, Feb. 6, 2012) Given that the European debt crisis is likely to have only a passing impact on Taiwan, the fundamental challenge remains economic restructuring and the ability to play a meaningful role in international economic integration.

Chongqing Drama, China's Rise and Its Noninterference Foreign Policy, and China's Domestic Issues

Wang Lijun, Crime Fighter, Is Said to Have Tried to Defect
(New York Times, Feb. 9, 2012) In a sign that China’s political season is heating up, reports circulated widely on Wednesday that one of the country’s most famous crime fighters had tried to defect to the United States.

Chongqing Drama Ignites Speculation By Brian Spegele and Andrew Browne (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 9, 2012) The events ignited a storm of speculation on the Chinese Internet about the possible fallout for Mr. Bo, a charismatic figure who has carved out a unique position for himself as a populist politician in a country where politics is generally conducted behind closed doors.

Chongqing Political Power Struggle Talk Grows Louder By Brian Spegele (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 10, 2012) A senior Chinese official sought to play down an unfolding political drama involving Chongqing's Communist Party chief, Bo Xilai, amid rising speculation that it signaled a high-level struggle over the coming national leadership transition.

As Canadian Talk Business, China’s Longtime Stance of Noninterference Is Tested By Ian Johnson and Michael Wines (New York Times, Feb. 11, 2012) As China’s global commercial and diplomatic interests mushroom, it is being confronted with decisions that are drawing it ever more steadily into internal disputes in other nations.

Protecting Chinese Citizens Abroad: What Next? By Mathieu Duchatel and Bates Gill (PacNet #9, Pacific Forum, CSIS, Feb. 6, 2012) Setting up effective and standard procedures for protecting Chinese citizens overseas is to a great extent an institutional question regarding the distribution of costs and responsibilities between different government agencies, SOEs and private enterprises.

Chinese Leader Backs Land Rights By Brian Spegele(Wall Street Journal, Feb. 6, 2012) Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for better protection for the land rights of farmers during a visit to southern Guangdong province. The comments appeared to be a signal of support for Guangdong's provincial party secretary, Wang Yang.

China Says Tibet Facing “Urgent” Task to Maintain Stability
(Reuters, Feb. 6, 2012) China's mountainous region of Tibet is facing an urgent task to maintain stability, and all government workers must be on their highest guard ahead of the Tibetan new year and the fifth anniversary of riots there, a top newspaper said.

Why Beijing Votes with Moscow By Minxin Pei(New York Times, Feb. 8, 2012) The most important factor in China’s decision had little to do with Beijing-Damascus ties, and everything to do with its diplomatic cooperation with Moscow.

The Yuan’s Road to Becoming a Reserve Currency
(China Real Time Report, Feb. 7, 2012) A new Brookings Institution study said China’s currency will become an international reserve currency within the next decade.

Policy Banks Looking to Make Yuan Loans in Latin America By Lingling Wei (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 8, 2012) Chinese policy banks are seeking to expand lending to commodities-rich countries in Latin America using the Chinese yuan instead of the dollar, part of a broader government effort to promote international use of the yuan, according to people familiar with the matter.

China: How to Translate Hard Power at Home into Soft Power Abroad By Frank Ching (YaleGlobal, Feb. 8, 2012) In taking the offensive on soft power, China has been defensive and insecure, Ching reports, even in Hong Kong where a majority seems to identify with the former British colony rather than China.

Regional Issues and Japan Policy

Have Chinese Had Enough? By Jonathan Holslag(The Diplomat, Feb. 2, 2012) History shows that rising powers typically become pugnacious when they get trapped with domestic and diplomatic problems, not when they make it to the top. Rising powers become dangerous when they falter.

Tomorrow’s Pax Pacifica By Kevin Rudd(Project Syndicate, Feb. 7, 2012) Although the relationship between China and the United States is critical to Asia’s future, this does not mean that the region will become a Sino-American duopoly. The concept of a “G-2” is never going to fly in Asia.

Singapore Straddles the Fence with U.S. and China By Shibani Mahtani (Southeast Asia Real Time Report, Feb. 10, 2012) Analysts have joined Singapore’s foreign minister in promoting a broader engagement between the U.S. and Southeast Asia rather than just a military one, arguing the U.S. can only maintain a powerful position in the region by showing it is interested in other issues, as well.

Taiwan to Build a Flight System on Disputed Isles
(AFP, Feb. 7, 2012) The Ministry of National Defense yesterday said it was preparing to set up an air navigation system on the disputed Spratly Islands in a move that could spark fresh tensions in the South China Sea.

US, Japan Mull Sending 4,700 Marines to Guam
(AP, Feb. 7, 2012) The United States and Japan, hoping to break a stalemate over the U.S. military presence on Okinawa, are discussing a plan to transfer nearly 5,000 troops to Guam.