Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Feb. 19, 2012)

For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org

Xi Jinping Visited the United States

China’s Xi Starts His Wooing of U.S.
(Wall Street Journal, Feb. 15, 2012) Xi Jinping, China's expected next leader, began a week of wooing America as he met with President Barack Obama for the first time, kicking off a visit that could shape the bilateral relationship for a decade to come.

With Edge, U.S. Greets China’s Heir Apparent By Mark Landler and Edward Wong (New York Times, Feb. 15, 2012) Mr. Xi was met with blunt criticism from his host, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who declared that the United States and China could cooperate “only if the game is fair.”

Xi Meets Critics in Congress By Jeremy Page and Laura Meckler(Wall Street Journal, Feb. 16, 2012) Xi Jinping, China's presumptive next leader, came face to face with his critics in the U.S. Congress and delivered a policy address highlighting the benefits of trade with China, and his own personal affinity to the U.S.

Chinese Vice President Urges U.S. to Respect ‘Core Interests’ By Edward Wong (New York Times, Feb. 16, 2012) On the second day of an ambitious tour through the United States, China’s vice president and presumed next leader, Xi Jinping, said that the two nations must respect each other’s “core interests” while working to build trust and cooperation on a variety of issues.

China’s Xi Woos US Heartland As Romney Attacks
(AFP, Feb. 17, 2012) China's leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping reached out to heartland America Thursday with billions of dollars in farm deals, as Republican Mitt Romney slammed the "prosperous tyranny" of Beijing.

Chinese Vice President Xi Visits Iowa By Benjamin L. Read and Zhang Gang (Foreign Affairs, Feb. 14, 2012) Mr. Xi’s feel-good trip to Iowa will underscore to viewers in China and the United States the depth and continuity of the ties that have grown between the two countries since the relatively innocent days when Xi first ventured there.

Xi Wraps Up Trip; Success Seen in What Didn’t Occur By Jeremy Page, Nathan Hodge and Brian Spegele (Wall Street Journal, Feb. 18, 2012) For some U.S. experts, Mr. Xi's visit was short on substance. Mr. Xi managed to avoid making gaffes; hecklers or protesters did not disrupt high-profile events despite repeated demonstrations by Tibetan activists; and U.S. and Chinese officials kept any sharp discussions behind closed doors.

Taiwan Given Briefings on Xi Jinping’s US Visit
(Taipei Times, Feb. 19, 2012) The US provided Taiwan with full and complete briefings of all meetings held with Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping during his just completed week-long visit.

Xi Jinping Visited the United States--Comments

Xi Jining’s Visit: Focus on U.S.-China Security Posture Agenda By Kenneth G. Lieberthal and J. Stapleton Roy (Washington Post, Feb. 12, 2012) Xi Jinping's visit will not immediately produce major steps toward a set of understandings that include steps embodying mutual restraint on development and deployments of particularly destabilizing weapons systems. But it is not too early to begin addressing the core issue of mutually agreed overall security postures in Asia.

China’s President-in-Waiting Heads to Washington for a Visit Crucial to Both Nations By William Wan (Washington Post, Feb. 13, 2012) “Right now, I think there’s a lot of concern in the administration and Congress that we’re heading for a very rough five to 10 years,” said Michael Green. “If there’s a sense in his meetings here … that he’s a guy we could do business with, that could help.”

What the US and China Need to Do By Elizabeth Economy(China Daily, Feb. 15, 2012) The simple truth is that the US and China have had few reasons to celebrate their relationship since China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001. There is a path forward, but it will necessitate a reorientation in the perspectives of leaders in both countries.

Xi’s Tour Won’t Fix the U.S.-Chinese ‘Trust Deficit’ By Elizabeth Economy (Foreign Affairs, Feb. 15, 2012) In any relationship, trust is built over time. It requires clarity of intention, predictability of action, shared sensibilities, a willingness to give before one takes, and mutual respect.

Concerns Over Possible US Policy Changes Dismissed
(Taipei Times, Feb. 17, 2012) The government dismissed concerns over possible changes in the US’ policy on cross-strait relations after a Chinese press release said that US President Barack Obama “rejects” any call for Taiwan’s independence.

About Xi Jinping

Views from China’s Vice President
(Washington Post, Feb. 13, 2012) In advance of Vice President Xi Jinping’s visit, the Chinese government invited The Washington Post to submit written questions to the vice president. Following is a transcript of his written answers.

Early Hardship Shaped Xi’s World View By Jeremy Page(Wall Street Journal, Feb. 13, 2012) The man set to arrive in Washington on Monday as China's presumptive next leader began his ascent to power, and honed his political outlook, as a teenager living in a spartan cave dwelling in the dusty hills of Shaanxi province.

For Xi Jinping, Set to Become China’s Next Leader, Father’s Past Is Sensitive By Andrew Higgins (Washington Post, Feb. 13, 2012) A big question is whether Xi Jinping took his father’s political outlook, or whether his father’s troubles left Xi convinced that unwavering toughness and extreme caution offer the best hope for survival.

China’s Heir Apparent By Ho Pin(New York Times, Feb. 13, 2012) If a large scale crisis happens, Mr. Xi seems more likely than former leaders to rally progressives both within and outside the party, take advantage of grass-roots movements and genuinely transform China’s political landscape.

Empty Suit By Yu Jie(Foreign Policy, Feb. 13, 2012) Xi Jinping is just another Communist Party hack.

The Insider By Kerry Brown(Foreign Policy, Feb. 13, 2012) Meet Xi Jinping, Chna’s heir apparent—the cleanest, least offensive, most loyal politician the party could find.

Xi Jinping ‘Transcends’ His Predecessors: Expert
(CNA, Feb. 17, 2012) A China watcher in Taiwan said that Xi has “transcended” his predecessors, such as former Chinese presidents Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao in seven respects.

Cross-Strait Issues

Vice President-elect Registers to Attend Boao Forum in April
(CNA, Feb. 15, 2012) Vice President-elect Wu Den-yih has registered to attend an economic conference in China in April in his capacity as an adviser to the Cross-Straits Common Market Foundation, the foundation's Chairman Chan Hou-sheng said.

Taiwan May Allow Yuan-Based Wealth Management Investment
(Reuters, Feb. 13, 2012) Taiwan’s financial regulator is considering allowing individuals to invest in wealth management products denominated in China’s yuan currency as the opening of the financial sector between the two political rivals picks up pace.

Gov’t May Further Open Key Industries to China
(China Post, Feb. 13, 2012) Currently, only 42 percent of the island's manufacturing sector is open to Chinese investment, and the government seeks to lift the number to 90 percent, the Economic Affairs Ministry said.

Officials Mull Expansion of Limits in FIT Program
(Taipei Times, Feb. 13, 2012) SEF chairman Chiang said the Free Independent Traveler program would be expanded, with residents from more Chinese cities being allowed to join the program and the daily entry ceiling on independent Chinese travelers increasing to 1,000.

U.S. Policy and Sino-U.S. Engagement

The End of American Intervention By James Traub
(New York Times, Feb. 19, 2012) America is not about to go to war with China, or with anyone else in Asia. The very complicated relationship with China is much less a clash of worldviews than of interests.

China and America: A Profitable Partnership By Tung Chee Hwa(Wall Street Journal, Feb. 13, 2012) U.S. exports to China have risen at an astonishing pace, growing at a compound annual rate of 35%, a trend that is set to continue.

Better, Stronger Relations between China and US By Chen Weihua
(China Daily, Feb. 13, 2012) According to the latest China Daily/Gallup poll, a majority of the Americans want strong bilateral relations with China. Hands Across the Sea

China VP Says US Should Do More to ‘Promote Trust’
(AFP, Feb. 14, 2012) Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, widely expected to become his country's next leader, said Washington should adopt "concrete measures to promote mutual trust" at the start of a US visit.

US Admiral Says Military Confrontation Is Unlikely
(Taipei Times, Feb. 18, 2012) Retired US Admiral Timothy Keating, former head of the US Pacific Command, said there was “an extreme unlikelihood” of military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait.

PLA and Military Balance

China’s Military Spending to Double by 2015—Report
(China Real Time Report, Feb. 14, 2012) China’s defense budget will double by 2015, making it more than the rest of the Asia Pacific region’s combined, according to a report from IHS Jane’s.

Analysis: New China Landing Vessels Point to Pacific Rivalry By David Lague (Reuters, Feb. 15, 2012) As looming budget cuts force the Pentagon to plan for a smaller U.S. navy, China is accelerating the launch of new, increasingly capable warships as part of a sustained drive to become a major maritime power.

DPP Examined Electoral Failings

‘Consensus’ Not Key to Loss: DPP
(Taipei Times, Feb. 14, 2012) There was no direct link between the so-called “1992 consensus” and the outcome of the Jan. 14 presidential election, but cross-strait issues remained a decisive factor in the election, sources said of the DPP preliminary post-election review.

Forum Examines DPP’s Failings
(Taipei Times, Feb. 15, 2012) If DPP is serious about winning the next presidential election, it will have to reassess its China policy to win the public’s support, analysts said.

DPP Cites Six Main Reasons for Loss
(Taipei Times, Feb. 16, 2012) The DPP said the KMT was more ‘successful’ in crisis management and there was little evidence its opposition to the ‘1992 consensus’ turned off voters.

Chongqing Drama and China's Leadership Succession

China Risks a Bumpy Transition By Brian Spegele(Wall Street Journal, Feb. 13, 2012) A domestic political drama that developed at the U.S. consulate here last week could signal that the transfer of power to a new Communist Party leadership under Xi Jinping might not go as smoothly as Beijing would prefer.

Scandal May Topple Party Official in China By Ian Johnson and Jonathan Ansfield (New York Times, Feb. 17, 2012) Mr. Bo’s chances have suffered a serious blow because of an unfolding corruption scandal involving Wang Lijun, the man he recruited as Chongqing’s top law enforcement officer. While some observers say Mr. Bo’s ascension cannot be ruled out, most seem to think his upward trajectory has stalled.

Regional Issues

The Response of China’s Neighbors to the U.S. “Pivot” to Asia By Richard C. Bush III (Brookings, Jan. 31, 2012) Asian countries may not want to get crushed in the nutcracker of U.S.-China competition, but they do want a balanced competition to continue. The last thing they want is for Washington to take itself out of the game. At the same time, they want us to be smart in the way we serve our counterweight function.