Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Israel's Insightful Cynicism Get More Access As a free subscriber, you receive our Geopolitical and Security Weekly reports, but there is so much more that Stratfor offers. Enjoy this column on Israel from our Chief Geopolitical Analyst and best-selling author Robert D. Kaplan, andsubscribe today to access his column (and more) every week. By Robert D. Kaplan  Israel is in the process of watching a peace treaty unravel. I don't mean the one with Egypt, but the one with Syria. No, I'm not crazy. Since Henry Kissinger's shuttle diplomacy in 1974, the Israelis have had a de facto peace agreement of sorts with the al Assad family. After all, there were clear red lines that both sides knew they shouldn't cross, as well as reasonable predictability on both sides. Forget about the uplifting rhetoric, the requirement to exchange ambassadors and the other public policy frills that normally define peace treaties. What counts in this case is that both sides observed limits and constraints, so that the contested border between them was secure. Even better, because there was no formal peace agreement in writing, neither side had to make inconvenient public and strategic concessions. Israel did not have to give up the Golan Heights, for example. And if Syria stepped over a red line in Lebanon, or say, sought a nuclear capacity as it did, Israel was free to punish it through targeted military strikes. There was usefully no peace treaty that Israel would have had to violate. Read More »