Economic Forecast October 2013: Economy In a Strengthening Cycle
Written by Steven Hansen
Our
October 2013 Economic Forecast confirms the change in trend stated our
previous forecast. Most portions of our economic model are expanding.
Read more >>
What We Read Today 29 September 2013
Econintersect: Click Read more >> below graphic to see today's list.
The top of today's reading list is
Robert Eisner's 1993 paper about the Federal debt ........ and the
last article about the discovery of an unusual radiation ring in space.
WaPo: Living the American Dream? Dream On!
Econintersect: Less than 40% of all Americans think their children will have a better standard of living than they have today according to a Washington Post-Miller
Center poll published today (29 September 2013). The most negative
cohort is those in the self-described upper class with only 35% thinking
that things will improve for their children. The overall average was
39% so the difference is barely significant. Middle class (41%) and
lower class (40%) were not significantly different from the average.
Pakistanis Take a Closer Look at Newborn Earthquake Island
After
a 7.7 magnitude earthquake hit a remote province of Pakistan Tuesday, a
new island emerges in the Arabian Sea, but this isn't the first island
created by an earthquake. It's the worst earthquake in the South Asian
country since 2005.
A Word from This Newsletter's Sponsor
We Just Raised the Price Target for this Bakken Stock.
We are expecting a 153% gain for this small oil producer.
And massive new land purchase could send production higher.
Now we are upping the share target for this $8 gem to $26.
Seniors Targeted to Invest in Football Related Scam
from the Securities Exchange Commission
The Securities and Exchange Commission
Friday charged the operators of a South Florida-based boiler room scheme
with defrauding seniors and other investors they pressured into
purchasing stock in a company that purportedly developed ground-breaking
technology for the National Football League to use in the Super Bowl.
The Week Ahead: How Costly a Government Shutdown?
by Jeff Miller, A Dash of Insight
The most important issue facing the US
markets and economy is the pending government shutdown. If this expands
into a debt default, the implications reach worldwide.
The Failure of Financial Regulation
Marshall Auerback Interviews Anat Admati
Econintersect: Marshall Auerback, Director of Institutional Partnerships at the Institute for New Economic Thinking,
recently interviewed Anat Admati, George G.C. Parker Professor of
Finance and Economics, Graduate School of Business at Stanford
University. The topic was the remaining economic dangers connected with
the banking system.
Terminal Velocity (21) 'Helicopter Flight Simulator: Flight Shtimulator'
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com
The
Terminal Velocity series has followed the flight plan of 'Bernanke's
Helicopter' to Jackson Hole. The way point markers along this flight
path are recounted below. This is a belated review of Jackson Hole 2013
and the Terminal Velocity series articles that preceded the meeting.
Read more >>
A Clash of the Classes
by Fabius Maximus, FabiusMaximus.com
A harsh clear look at the history of the Republican Party
Summary: Understanding the roots of
our dysfunctional political system requires shining a harsh light on the
institutions that run the system. This post looks at the Grand Old
Party, born fighting against slavery - and a sad history in the 20th
Century.
Europe's Top 10 Loss-Making Cars
by Felix Richter, Statista.com
Even though the car industry is finally
rebounding in the United States where sales figures are forecast to hit
16 million vehicles this year, the situation remains grim in Europe.
Indeed, European car sales plummeted to a record low in August -
registrations dropped by 4.9 percent in comparison with last year.
The Promise and Challenges of Bank Capital Reform
by Ronel Elul - Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
The failure and bailout of prominent
financial institutions amid the crisis of 2007-09, and the effect these
events had on the economy as a whole, have led policymakers to rethink
how the global financial system is regulated. Ronel Elul explains the
history behind bank capital regulation and how ongoing regulatory
changes might help prevent future crises.
Government Budget Trend Cannot Be Maintained Indefinitely
Testimony by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)before the Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives
In brief, between 2009 and 2012, the
federal government recorded the largest budget deficits relative to the
size of the economy since 1946, causing federal debt to soar. Federal
debt held by the public is now about 73 percent of the economy's annual
output, or gross domestic product (GDP). That percentage is higher than
at any point in U.S. history except a brief period around World War II,
and it is twice the percentage at the end of 2007.
Banking in Sub-Saharan Africa: the Macroeconomic Context
by Montfort Mlachila and Masafumi Yabara - International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Many countries in sub-Saharan Africa
(SSA) have seen accelerated growth for an extended period of time since
the mid-1990s, making a clear break with their long stagnant growth
during the previous two decades. That said, the region faces significant
challenges over the medium to long term, including reducing poverty,
overcoming infrastructure bottlenecks, enhancing productivity and skill
levels, and improving the business climate, among others. The banking
sector remains underdeveloped in SSA, thus reducing its contribution to
growth, although its limited integration with global financial markets
helped countries weather adverse effects of the global financial crisis.
Getting a Handle on Shadow Banking
by Tobias Adrian, Adam B. Ashcraft, and Nicola Cetorelli - Federal Reserve Bank of New York
The shadow banking system consists of a
web of specialized financial institutions that conduct credit, maturity,
and liquidity transformation without direct, explicit access to public
backstops. The lack of such access to sources of government liquidity
and credit backstops makes shadow banks inherently fragile. Shadow
banking activities are often intertwined with core regulated
institutions such as bank holding companies, security brokers and
dealers, and insurance companies. These interconnections of shadow banks
with other financial institutions create sources of systemic risk for
the broader financial system. This post lays out elements of monitoring
risks in the shadow banking system, including recent efforts by the
Financial Stability Board.
Infographic of the Day: Nanomedicine - The Future of Medicine
Nanomedicine,
refers to highly specific medical intervention at the molecular level
for curing disease or repairing damaged tissues. Though in its infancy,
could we be looking at the future of medicine? Early clinical trials
certainly look promising.
