Terminal Velocity (22) 'Stimulating Taper'
Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com
Terminal
Velocity 'Helicopter Flight Simulator dot-dot-dot . Flight
Shtimulator' suggested that Jackson Hole had signaled a hardening in US
economic policy; to prioritize domestic conditions at the expense of the
Global Economy especially in Emerging Markets. President Obama's recent
failure at G20, to create a global consensus on Syria, was further
evidence of the breakdown in global cooperation that could lead to
American unilateralism. But perhaps the recent Putin "rescue" will
forestall that (unilateralism).
Read more >>
Market Commentary: Dismal Day For The Markets As Shutdown Looms
Closing Market Commentary For 09-30-2013
Markets closed down, but somewhat off the
morning opening lows. Gaps that occurred during the opening in the
small caps were almost filled and the large caps still need to melt much
higher. The USD is down and the Euro is up while gold slowly sinks.
By 4 pm the averages showed up with some
green volume but not enough to make much difference in the closing
numbers. The aftermarket did some melting up but never reached the 2:30
highs.
What We Read Today 30 September 2013
Econintersect: Click Read more >> below graphic to see today's list.
The top of today's reading list
reports on the readiness of HIX (Obamacare health insurance exchanges)
which open tomorrow ........ and the last article is about water
shortages in the U.S.
SEC Charges New Jersey-Based Accounting Firm and Founding Partner for Failed Audits of China-Based Company
from the Securities and Exchange Commission
The
Securities and Exchange Commission today charged a New Jersey-based
audit firm and one of its founding partners for their roles in the
botched audits of a China-based company that failed to disclose related
party transactions by its CEO and others. An SEC investigation found
that Patrizio & Zhao LLC (P&Z) and Xinggeng (John) Zhao, who is
head of the firm's China practice, failed to comply with U.S. auditing
standards and exercise appropriate professional care and skepticism in
conducting audits and interim reviews for Keyuan Petrochemicals, which
was charged with accounting and disclosure
violations by the SEC earlier this year.
Market Commentary: Market Recover Some Of Mornings Losses
Midday Market Commentary For 09-30-2013
Large caps have recovered almost half of
this mornings drop and the small caps have recovered 90% of their fall.
Investors are showing signs of renewed faith that the government
shutdown crisis is going to be solved by midnight tonight. Volume is
tapering off somewhat as the buying trend is melting up.
By noon the averages were starting to
show signs of weakness and perhaps we have seen the highs for the day.
It wouldn't all that much to send the averages into a tail-spin and test
the morning lows.
Israel on Counter-Offensive: Netanyahu vows to rebut Irans sweet talk
The
Israeli Prime Minister's on a mission to thwart Iran's recent efforts
to unfreeze its relations with the West. Benjamin Netanyahu claims
Tehrans sweet talk is just a trick to buy the country nuclear programme
more time.
September 2013 Texas Manufacturing Survey Growth Strengthens
All Federal Reserve
districts have released their September surveys - and all but one are
forecasting growth (one forecast is for zero growth). A complete
summary follows.
Market Commentary: Averages Sink Like The Titanic On The Opening
Opening Market Commentary For 09-30-2013
On Sunday the SP500 futures gaped down
10.27 points to bad our crystal balls didn't alert us, would have been a
nice scalp. This morning's premarket was still down some 85% and sank
further on the market's opening.
By the 15 minute mark the averages had
recovered +0.05% from the initial opening lows and began to sea-saw back
and forth on relatively moderate to heavy volume as investors are
contemplating the odds of a government shutdown tonight at midnight.
By 10 am the sinking ship was bobbing in
the sea of red volume as any remaining investors on board were deciding
what their prospects of survival were.
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September 2013 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Well Above Expectations
Econintersect:
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index improved slightly for the third
month in a row after June's largest drop in almost five years.
Crisis Chronicles: The 'Not So Great' Re-Coinage of 1696
by James Narron and David Skeie - Liberty Street Economics, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
In the late 1600s, England operated a
bi-metallic monetary system of high-value gold coins and lower-value
silver coins. In the early 1690s, however, the market price of silver
began to rise at a time when the mint price of gold was higher than the
market price. Thus, gold bullion was flowing to the mint while silver
coins were flowing to the commodity markets. By 1695, nearly half of the
silver specie was missing from coin in circulation in England as coins
were 'clipped' (shaved) with the result that their face value no longer
reflected the metal content. Ironically, low-weight coin was still
accepted for tax payments. In this post, we recount England's efforts to
remedy the 'ill state of the coin of the kingdom' during the re-coinage
of 1696.
The Armageddon Looting Machine: The Looming Mass Destruction from Derivatives
by Ellen Brown, Web of Debt
Increased
regulation and low interest rates are driving lending from the
regulated commercial banking system into the unregulated shadow banking
system. The shadow banks, although free of government regulation, are
propped up by a hidden government guarantee in the form of safe harbor
status under the 2005 Bankruptcy Reform Act pushed through by Wall
Street. The result is to create perverse incentives for the financial
system to self-destruct.
China: Manufacturing Data Disappoints
Econintersect: The final HSBC PMI for China in September has come in at 50.2, up
from
50.1 in August. Because the reading is above 50 (the dividing line
between expansion and contraction) the result indicates that China's
manufacturing is growing, but just barely. The reading is both
disappointing and a surprise since it is a fill point below last week's
"flash" PMI (preliminary estimate). The final reading is usually with
0.2 or so of the preliminary number.
Whatever the News, Follow the Charts
Ignoring the News & Watching The Charts
by Harlan Pyan, All About Trends
While the markets continue to digest the
recent move off the September lows with the SPX doing so via a pullback
(price) and the NASDAQ Comp. doing so sideways (time) many market
leading stocks are trading to the beat of their own drum hence its a
market of stocks.
Where Sequestration Hits Hardest
Econintersect:
The sequestration regime which began earlier this year will cut $1.3
trillion from federal expenditures over a ten-year period. But the
effects are net felt equally across the nation. One of the hardest hit
counties is Los Alamos NM, home to the Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Los Alamos will see an impact of $6,358.97 per capita. Los Angeles County in California will see an impact of only $216.27 per capita.
Research and Development Proximity Creates Clusters of Knowledge
by Gerald A. Carlino and Jake K. Carr - Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
The United States is home to some of the
most innovative companies in the world, such as Apple, Facebook, and
Google, to name a few. Inventive activity depends on research and
development, and R&D depends on, among other things, the exchange of
ideas among individuals. People's physical proximity is a key
ingredient in the innovation process.
Budgeting the Federal Government's Response to Disasters
by Dan Hoople - Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
Recently, the Congress has expressed
renewed interest in the cost of the federal response to major disasters.
Some of that interest may stem from the Budget Control Act of 2011,
which allows some spending for disasters above the limits on
discretionary appropriations without triggering sequestration (a
cancellation of funding that Congress has previously provided). (CBO
recently estimated that this allowance for disaster-related funding,
which is based on the 10-year average of such funding excluding the
highest and lowest years, is $12.1 billion for fiscal year 2014.)
The Economics of Student Loan Borrowing and Repayment
by Wenli Li - Business Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Reports in the popular press and
policymakers' concerns about student loans have greatly intensified in
recent years because of rising student loan balances and defaults. Even
greater cause for concern arose as student loans outstanding passed
credit card debt to become the single largest nonmortgage household debt
in 2012. Worries about the risk of massive default have even prompted a
comparison with the subprime mortgage crisis.
Central Bank News: More Cuts and Criticism of the Fed
Monetary Policy Week in Review - Sep
23-27, 2013: Israel, Hungary cut, Fed move sparks criticism of
communication
by Peter Nielsen, Central Bank News
Last week the central banks of Israel and
Hungary cut their policy rates while 10 other banks maintained rates as
the U.S. Federal Reserve's surprise decision to delay tapering its
asset purchases reverberated through global markets amid criticism of
its communication skills and forward guidance.
Documenatary of the Week: Ray Dalio Describes the Economy
Econintersect:
Legendary hedge fund manager Ray Dalio has developed a simple three
part template to describe the "economy machine". This can be reviewed in
the 31 minute minute video selected for this week.
GTA V is the Fastest-Selling Entertainment Product Ever
by Felix Richter, Statista.com
GTA V reached the billion-dollar revenue
milestone faster than any other entertainment product in history. It
took the game only three days to achieve what Avatar, no less than the
most successful movie of all times, did in 17 days.
Infographic of the Day: Organizations Lack Confidence in Their Performance Management
Despite
an understanding that talent is a source of competitive advantage - and
the fact that performance management programs have been an established
business practice for more than 50 years - organizations today still
struggle to establish effective programs.
