Credit
Suisse was a clear winner in the aftermath of the financial crisis. But
the bank's 2010 results suggest this progress has stalled, while its
decision to cut the dividend and lower its return-on-equity targets from
2012 smacks of past overconfidence.
Nearly
two centuries after his death, are Thomas Malthus's theories again
finding their moment? After a brief flurry of interest in the 2007/8
boom, they are back, at least according to two commodities analysts at
Barclays Capital.
The 19th-century vicar gloomily forecast that the global population
would eventually become too large for the earth's resources to sustain,
although many have since argued Malthus ignored the benefits
technological development would bring.
Fast forward to the present day, and BarCap argues that a range of
commodities face supply constraints as demand, especially from Asia,
inexorably grows. And there aren't encouraging signs commodities
producers are developing technology quickly enough to develop more
supply. The likely result? Higher inflation, which central banks will
try to tame with tighter policy that eventually stalls growth, and more
prolonged periods of global price volatility. For more, see BarCap's
"2011 Equity Gilt Study." And fix yourself a stiff drink.