Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Thursday, 17 October 2013

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Articles posted on Thursday, 17 October 2013
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Why the US Needs Obamacare

by Elliott Morss, Morss Global Finance
Introduction In recent months, Obamacare has become the bete noire of the Tea Party in negotiations to reopen the government and avoid a default. And it has not helped that the web sites for the "heath insurance marketplaces" have not worked well. However, Obamacare has been short changed: in actual fact, it constitutes an excellent, albeit imperfect, first step to rectifying the inefficient and unfair US health care delivery system. It is therefore worth looking again at the key features of the new health legislation. In what follows, the most important features of the new legislation are presented.
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Market Commentary: SP500 Sets New Historic High, God Save The Taper

Written by 
Closing Market Commentary For 10-17-2013
SP500 sets new historic high while the DOW remained in the red all day. At first glance today's session looks like we are off and running for another grab for the illusive gold ring investors are always seeking.
By 4 pm the markets closed up and looking good while the 'Sheeples' probably are calling their brokers to buy first thing in the morning. Savvy investors knows what that implies.




What We Read Today 17 October 2013

Econintersect: Click Read more >> below graphic to see today's list.
The top of today's reading list reports on JP Morgan Chase problems ........ and the last article extends the discussion to a $57 billion problem with bad FHA loans for all the banks.



Market Commentary: Averages Continue To melt Up Into The Green

Written by 
Midday Market Commentary For 10-17-2013
Markets continue to melt upward as volume shrinks only the DOW remains in the red. The market as a whole is up 0.30% boosted by a shot of 'Hopium' from last nights Congressional 2 ring circus where the elephants were lead to the shed after trying to dump on the House floor.
By noon the averages looked tired, very tired and running out of steam.



October 2013 Philly Fed Business Outlook Shows Continued Growth

Written by Steven Hansen
The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey improved strongly and remains in positive territory. This survey has been negative for 9 of the last 18 months. Key element new orders strengthened in expansion territory.
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The Real Hustle The Booster Bag Scam

The best of the factual entertainment series about scams and cons focusing on how easy it is to be scammed and conned in everyday life.



Market Commentary: Debt Ceiling Rises, Markets Fall, Volume Moderate

Written by 
Opening Market Commentary For 10-17-2013
Futures shot up like a rocket when the premarkets opened to where the SP500 futures was up 28 points at one point. As the morning trading progressed the percentages started to drop like a bucket of water over Niagara Falls dashing bulls hopes of new market highs.
The markets opened with the DOW falling to minus 144 in a matter of seconds, halting to consolidate for a while and then rising 40 points. By 10 am the action was over as volume fell to lackluster levels and the averages settled in, for now anyway, slowly melting upwards.



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Nonfinancial Leverage NFCI Declined w/e 11 October 2013

The Nonfinancial leverage subindex of the National Financial Conditions Index increased slightly (less good) this week but still remains well inside of economic expansion territory. Econintersect focuses on non-financial tools to monitor the economy. 
This index remains on a "less good" trend line, and is believed to be a good forward indicator a recession is coming. A value above zero is a recession warning. This week there was a moderate revision to the entire series.



12 October 2013 Unemployment Claims 4 Week Average Again Worsens - Blame the Government Shutdown

Blue Line 4 Week Average
The market was expecting 320,000 to 330,000 vs the 358,000 reported. The more important (because of the volatility in the weekly reported claims and seasonality errors in adjusting the data) 4 week moving average degraded, moving from 325,000(reported last week) to 336,500.



Are There Legal Means for a President to Overcome an Immovable Debt Ceiling

Written by John Lounsbury
In a companion article it was argued that the debt ceiling law was unconstitutional as a matter of logical principle. The argument made there was that only three possible actions for the president would follow the government running into a debt ceiling that was not raised. And all three of those actions would involve acts that would violate provisons of the constitution and legislation passed and signed into law based on those provisions. Thus, it was argued, if a law (the debt ceiling law) could create situations whereby all courses of action would provoke a constitutional violation, then the law must be unconstitutional. But that is an incomplete argument.
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Housing Smoke and Mirrors (22) - 'Equivocation'

Written by Adam Whitehead, KeySignals.com
In Housing Smoke and Mirrors 'I'll Be Back' reports starting in July began to signal the point at which the rise in interest rates started to erode the strength of the housing market. Equivocal voices have now begun to opine much of the same. Read more >> 



JPMorgan Chase's Wild Ride

Investing Daily Article of the Week
by Brian O'Connell
What's to like about a 'too big to jail' bank that just announced it has paid a whopping $9.15 billion in pre-tax legal expenses, up from $684 million just a year ago?
Oh, and its third-quarter numbers came in under the red side of the ledger, and it follows a conga line of publicly traded companies that have told Wall Street not to expect them to meet third-quarter performance expectations.



The Bullion Market's Big Issues, Part I

Written by Adrian Ash, Bullion Vault
Price action isn't the big players' big concern in gold and silver right now...
"Faith and religion," said Edel Tully of UBS, the Swiss investment and bullion bank.
"Those were key themes," she said, summing up this year's LBMA conference last Tuesday evening.
We could hardly ignore those topics, meeting in the hills just west of Rome with 700 other delegates for the London Bullion Market Association's annual jolly. From Monday night's dinner on top of Monte Mario, the dome of St.Peter's dominated the view. And any asset which doesn't pay an income, and which has fallen in price for more than two years, must look like a "hold-n-hope" investment based more on prayer than cold logic.



European Banks in a New Financial Crisis

Written by Hilary Barnes
If the US Congress had not raised the debt ceiling and the US had defaulted on its loans, no one would have been too surprised if the world were hit by a new systematic financial crisis, with "systematic" defined as a 40% decline over six months of the aggregate stock index. Since the legislation passed only "fixes" the debt ceiling and funding problem for a few months the same potentialities remain "on the table". This makes the timing of the publication of a paper by the French business school IESEG particularly pertinent.
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Debt Ceiling Crisis is Over (for Three Months)

Econintersect: In the final hours of 16 October 2013 both houses of the U.S. Congress passed a deal to end a partial government shutdown and add enough headroom under the debt ceiling to keep the government functioning. Heralded as pulling the world back from the brink of a financial meltdown which would result if the U.S. could not meet its financial obligations and service its debt, the headlines seem hollow - only enough to enable government finances as far the first quarter of next year.
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Infographic of the Day: It's Not Paranoia,the Internet Knows More Than You Think

If you think the NSA is bad and snoops too much, then you have a surprise coming. A Google search of social media sites can allow a cyberthief to use data mining techniques to find out all they need to know to establish new loans or get credit in your name. Careless teens may be the ones most at risk.



Obamacare Struggles Forward

Econintersect: Difficulties continue for the online implementation of the nation's public healthcare exchanges. While the "big one", the federal government HIX (health insurance exchange) is still not functioning in any significant way, some of the state exchanges have provided numbers indicating that there are actually insurance applications being accepted. A picture is starting to emerge indicating what the level of public interest is likely to be. And the operational efficiency of those few exchanges that are functioning appears to be improving.
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Pinterest Drives More Traffic to Publishers Than Twitter

by Felix Richter, Statista.com
When it comes to referral traffic from social networks, it is no surprise that Facebook is the undisputed no. 1. According to Shareaholics, 10% of the traffic on websites from 200,000 publishers comes from the world's largest social network.