Option Science: Stages of a Bull Market
by Chris Ebert, Zentrader
The market continues to show signs that it has entered Stage 4, which is known here as a Bull market correction. Unfortunately, Stage 4 is one of the most difficult stages to identify because it can only be confirmed in hindsight.
What We Read Today 01 October 2013
Econintersect: Click Read more >> below graphic to see today's list.
The top of today's reading list discusses the whitewash that passed as an invetsigation of the Great Financial Crisis ........ and the last article is about the marked decline in traditional family household and the rise on non-traditional households an peole living alone.
Market Commentary: BTFDers Moved In For The (road) Kill During Last Minute.
Closing Market Commentary For 10-01-2013
Markets moved up considerably during the last 1 minute, sky rocketed in fact. No news that would have caused this, most likely a rumor that Obama caved in - NOT! The NASDAQ also set a new high which is important if this bull market is going to continue.
By 4 pm the green volume was moderate to heavy with the BTFDers moving the SP500 to today's highs and the DOW up to almost that high. Looked exciting, but it wasn't and the markets remain bearish in light of the government shutdown uncertainties.
Market Commentary: Averages Defy Common Sense By Melting Up
Midday Market Commentary For 10-01-2013
The small caps were hitting new historical highs just before noon where the NASDAQ and the $RUT didn't seem to have received the government shutdown memo. The large caps, DOW and SP500, were melting up, but remained subdued in comparison.
By noon volume was falling to anemic levels and the averages were melting up and so goes my theory of the markets doing nothing today.
Leading Index Review: August 2013 Philly Fed Leading Index Continues to Show Growth
Econintersect: A positive index number projects positive economic growth for the next 6 months. The August 2013 forecast (released today) growth is 1.4. A positive number indicates growth. A review of all major leading indicators follows.
Light hearted -- Federal Reserve Bank Opens Burger Bar Joints
Fiat currencies last for about 40 years; the fiat dollar has so far lasted 42 years. Far too much currency has been loaned into existence, it can never be paid back, we past the tipping point many years ago.
Government Shutdown Effects Econintersect Reporting
Econintersect: According to outplacement consultantsChallenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., the government shutdown that went into effect today (due to the inability of Congress to negotiate an agreement on a new budget) could have dire consequences for the economy at large.
The government shutdown has effected US Census who did not issue the scheduled August construction spending data release today. The note on the US Census website states:
Market Commentary: Markets Yawn As Government Shuts Down
Opening Market Commentary For 10-01-2013
Yesterday's aftermarket remained elevated, but flat as this mornings premarket opened with a slight trending downward, but up +0.05%.
The markets opened up +0.10 on very low volume as investors now wait for the US government to do something regarding the shutdown. The $VIX fell from 17.10 yesterday, a very bearish sign, to 16.00 this morning, still in the 'no-so-good' level. By the 15 minute mark the averages had made their high mark and appeared to be settling in for a lackluster day on falling volume.
September 2013 ISM Manufacturing Survey Again Strengthens
Written by Steven Hansen
The ISM Manufacturing survey for September 2013 showed the survey's expansion again strengthened. The New Orders sub-index which historically correlates to the economy was "less good".
Read more >>
A Word from This Newsletter's Sponsor
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It comes from a closed-door meeting at the New York Stock
Exchange, inside a highly secured boardroom on the 6th floor.
August 2013 CoreLogic Home Prices Up 12.4% Year-over-Year
Econintersect: CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) shows that home prices in the USA in August 2013 are up 12.4% year-over-year (reported up 0.9% month-over-month).
Stratfor: U.S. and Iranian Realities
By George Friedman, Founder and Chairman, Stratfor
U.S. President Barack Obama called Iranian President Hassan Rouhani last week in the first such conversation in the 34 years since the establishment of the Islamic Republic. The phone call followed tweets and public statements on both sides indicating a willingness to talk.
Read more >>
The Most Unlikely Beneficiary of the Natural Gas Boom
Money Morning Article of the Week
by Peter Krauth, Money Morning
An array of energy's sub-industries are making a fortune from America's natural gas boom.
Rigs, pipelines, rail, wastewater treatment, trucking, seismic imaging, well-site security... And a lot more opportunity is on the way, like the deal Kent just uncovered.
But perhaps the most unlikely beneficiary of the shale revolution is the coal industry.
Two Charts Show Why There is Support for Gold
by Michael Lombardi, Profit Confidential
In these pages, I have written extensively on how central banks will ultimately be the ones who drive gold bullion prices much higher. The phenomena of these banks getting back into gold (after they were net sellers for years) started in mid-2009.
More Housing Data Says Bubble Will Rage On, Fed Will Never Learn
by Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner
The Case Shiller Index reported last week that the median US house sale price in July was up 12.4% year over year. This severely lagged and smoothed index actually represents the 3 month average contract price of repeat sales only, with a time mid point of mid April.
Read more >>
Online Radio Has Yet to Conquer the Car
by Felix Richter, Statista.com
Online radio is growing increasingly popular in the United States. More than half of internet users aged 12 or older listen to one sort of internet radio or another.
Week Ending 30 September 2013: Almost a 7 Cent Gasoline Price Decline
Econintersect: Gasoline prices fell an average of 6.8 cents nationwide this past week from last weeks fall of 5.2 cent from the week before. Since September 2nd, gas prices have declined 17.9 cents.
Average prices by region and a breakdown by grade follow after the "Read more>>".
The Zero Lower Bound and Longer-Term Yields Meet QE
by Eric Swanson - FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
The Federal Reserve lowered its traditional monetary policy instrument, the federal funds rate, to essentially zero in December 2008. However, economic activity generally depends on interest rates with longer maturities than the overnight fed funds rate. Research shows that interest rates with maturities of two years or more were largely unconstrained by the zero lower bound until at least late 2011. This suggests that, despite the zero bound, the Fed has been able to continue conducting monetary policy through medium- and longer-term interest rates by using forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases.
Insider Trading 27 September 2013: Synageva BioPharma Director Buying
by Asif Suria
Insider buying increased with insiders purchasing $69.72 million of their stock last week compared to $10.86 million in the week prior. Selling also increased with insiders selling $1.32 billion of stock last week compared to $1.12 billion in the week prior. While the headline insider purchasing total has jumped up since last week's anemic $10.86 million number, a majority of it was driven by a single large $59.46 million purchase of Synageva BioPharma (GEVA) by its director Felix Baker of the $4.4 billion biotech fund Baker Brothers. This purchase was related to a secondary offering by Synageva. It was interesting to see that four out of the five top purchases were by insiders in the oil & gas industry.
Sell/Buy Ratio: The insider Sell/Buy ratio is calculated by dividing the total insider sales in a given week by total insider purchases that week. The adjusted ratio for last week dropped to 18.99.In other words, insiders sold about 19 times as much stock as they purchased. The Sell/Buy ratio this week compares favorably with the prior week, when the ratio stood at 102.75.
Shah Gilani: Jail the Banksters and Claw Back their Ill-gotten Gains
Econintersect: Occasional Global Economic Intersection contributor Shah Gilani has three very specific proposals to ending the TBTF (too big to fail) era. The bottom line of Gilani's proposals involves criminal prosecution and removing the perverse incentives in the current system. Gilani is speaking out in advance of a GAO (General Accountability Office) report examining what is essentially a government subsidy for the TBTF banks. The preliminary report is due out in a few weeks and the final report early next year.
Infographic of the Day: All Eyes On India - Discovery & Research
The cornea is the front part of the eye, which permits light to go through the pupil after which it is focused on the retina. In normal conditions, the cornea should be crystal clear although it might become cloudy which translates to impaired sight or complete blindness.
Coal is Still America's Predominant Electricity Source
by Felix Richter, Statista.com
According to the Earth Policy Institute, coal remains the predominant source of electricity in the United States, though natural gas has rapidly closed the gap. As part of the Environmental Protection Agency's announcement of the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, aging coal-fired power stations are shutting down across the nation.
