Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Monday, 17 March 2014

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2014-03-17 | NO.18(10) epaper |
Ukraine's Lessons
Will China Support Russia in the Ukraine Crisis? (2014-03-07)
(The Feed, By Walter Russell Mead) A slew of articles and editorials in Chinese government-run newspapers urge Beijing to firmly support Russia over Europe and the U.S.
With Allies Like These, Who Needs Rivals?: China Maintains Studied Ambiguity on Ukraine as Russia Claims ‘Concordance of Views’ (2014-03-06)
(China Brief 14(5), Jamestown Foundation, By David Cohen) China has studiously avoided endorsing Russia’s views of the Ukraine crisis in public, and rather appears to be pursuing a neutrality that will permit it to deal easily with any government that establishes power in Kiev.

Taiwan: Why China Backs Russia on Ukraine
 (2014-03-10)
(The Diplomat, By James R. Holmes) Russia’s intervention in Ukraine could well reinforce the precedent that big powers may manage their environs by force. That would provide political top cover for China should it opt to use force against Taiwan at some future time.
Ukraine--A Case for Chinese Involvement (2014-03-10)
(The Diplomat, By Andong Peng) China is mistaken to sit back and do nothing on Ukraine, because there is something at stake. There is one issue which it cares deeply about: Taiwan. And the Russian seizure of the Crimea provides an interesting template for China as to how eventual reunification might take place in the “worst case” scenario, namely through force.
In the Battle for Crimea, China Wins (2014-03-12)
(Foreign Policy, By Geoff Dyer) Even if the situation in Ukraine is resolved relatively quickly and U.S. relations with Russia do not completely fall apart, Obama will now spend a lot more of his time in office focusing on Europe, and top-level attention to Asia will drop. 
South China Sea Disputes
Second Thomas Shoal Tensions Intensify (2014-03-13)
(The Diplomat, By Zachary Keck) The U.S. has criticized China for provoking the Philippines in the Second Thomas Shoal even as Manila air-lifted supplies to its marines stationed on the disputed reef. 
Diaoyutai Disputes Resurface and Japan Policy
Apology to Comfort Women Will Not be Revised: Japan PM (2014-03-15)
(AFP) Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that his government would not revise a landmark 1993 “comfort women” apology and said he was “deeply pained” by the suffering of women drawn into a system of wartime brothels. 
U.S. Pivot to Asia and Sino-U.S. Engagement
Philippines Agree to Give US Access to Military Bases (2014-03-15)
(Reuters) The Philippines said US forces would deter China from taking action in the South China Sea, where territorial claims have caused friction. 
DPP Searches for New China Stance; Cross-Strait Issues
China's ‘One Country, Two Systems’ Trap  (2014-03-12)
(Wall Street Journal) Beijing's unmet promises to Hong Kong are a lesson for Taiwan.

Cross-Strait Pact Sparks Legislative Tussle
 (2014-03-13)
(China Post) The legislative deliberation for the Cross-Strait Trade in Services Agreement failed to be processed due to physical altercations and non-stop disputes between ruling party and opposition lawmakers.

Most Support Line-by-Line Cross-Strait Review (2014-03-14)
(Taipei Times) A clause-by-clause review of the cross-strait service trade pact was supported by a majority of respondents in a poll.
DPP Cross-Strait Policies Unpopular: Survey (2014-03-14)
(China Post) The DPP released a recent cross-strait survey in its China Affairs Committee meeting that sparked debate, with many criticizing the party for trying to “boycott” all China-related issues.

Su Says DPP Has Become More Flexible on China (2014-03-15)
(Taipei Times) DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang said the party does not “oppose everything related to China” as many people believe and has begun adjusting its China policy to make it more flexible and able to adapt to the changing dynamics of cross-strait relations.
China ‘Salami-Slicing’ toward Unification, Glaser Says (2014-03-15)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) “A combination of economic carrots and political pressure is being used to persuade the people of Taiwan to forgo the option of independence and reunify with the mainland,” Bonnie Glaser said.
PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales
China Says Military Needs to Defend National Interests  (2014-03-12)
(Wall Street Journal, By Brian Spegele) President Xi Jinping called on China's armed forces to staunchly defend national interests, while warning military leaders that China would have to bear greater responsibility as its military might grows.
China's Military Modernization: Why It Doesn't Mean What You Think It Means (2014-03-13)
(The Diplomat, By Shannon Tiezzi) The modernization of China’s military technology is important, no doubt. But the reforms to the military’s very structure, from increasing coordination between the army, navy, and air force to consolidating control of China’s military regions, could have an even bigger impact on the security situation in the Asia-Pacific.

Taiwan Would Not Survive Month of Attack, NSB Says
 (2014-03-11)
(Taipei Times) Tsai Der-sheng contradicted the defense minister, saying the nation might not last a month against China unless the public was willing to resist an invasion.
Fifteen Cases of Spying Uncovered in Past Year: Report (2014-03-12)
(Taipei Times) Fifteen cases of alleged Chinese espionage activities have been uncovered over the past year, of which 90 percent involved either active military personnel or retired military officers.
Why Spy on Taiwan When Taiwan Gives away Information for Free? (2014-03-12)
(The Diplomat, By J. Michael Cole) According to the island’s top intelligence chief, government agencies giving loads of confidential information to the Chinese — for free.

Defense Officials ‘in Panic’ about US Defunding of F-16 Upgrade: US Report (2014-03-10)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) US magazine Defense News reported that MND officials were “embarrassed and beginning to panic” over the Pentagon’s decision not to fund upgrades for 300 US F-16 jets.

No Extra Cost for F-16 Refit: US Official (2014-03-16)
(Taipei Times, By William Lowther) The US is committed to Taiwan’s F-16 refit, the US deputy secretary of state for East Asia said, amid criticism that the US is pandering to China’s whims.

Taiwan Receives First ‘Carrier Killer’ Ship (2014-03-14)
(The Diplomat, By Zachary Keck) The first of Taiwan’s so-called “carrier killer” ships was delivered to the Republic of China Navy, according to local media.
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey, First Half of March 2014 (2014-03-13)
(TISR) According to the latest Taiwan Mood Barometer Survey (in Chinese), President Ma Ying-jeou's approval rating decreased while his disapproval number increased over the first ten days of March. The president's approval rating shed 0.2 percentage point bringing it to 14.3 percent and his disapproval rating rose 1.3 percentage points to 74.9 percent.

Tsai Yin-Wen Announces Bid for DPP Chair
 (2014-03-16)
(Taipei Times) Former DPP chairperson Tsai Ing-wen announced a bid to run for the post again.

Navy Can Use Ports in Malaysia during Search: David Lin
 (2014-03-13)
(Taipei Times) A Taiwanese navy frigate and coast guard vessels that have been dispatched to help search for a missing Malaysia Airlines plane can dock at Malaysian ports to refuel and take on supplies, Foreign Minister David Lin said.

Relations ‘Stable’: Official (2014-03-13)
(Taipei Times) Security reports saying that Taiwan’s relations with its diplomatic allies were “vacuous” and subject to China’s diplomatic chokehold serve a “warning,” but ties to the nation’s 22 diplomatic allies remain stable, Minister of Foreign Affairs David Lin said.
Shen Lyu-Shun Appointed Representative to the US (2014-03-16)
(Taipei Times) The newly appointed representative to the US said he has some ‘old friends’ still serving in US Congress, which he believes will be helpful to his job.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
Wang Yi Outlines China's Foreign Policy Vision (2014-03-11)
(The Diplomat, By Shannon Tiezzi) Other countries may not like what a confident Chinese foreign policy looks like—these nations would probably use the word “assertive” or even “aggressive” rather than confident—but they had best get used to it. Wang Yi’s press conference made it clear that China’s foreign policy is not going to change course, but merely push further down the path already laid in 2013.

5 Foreign Policy Takeaways from Li Keqiang's Work Report (2014-03-10)
(The Diplomat, By Mu Chunshan) Through comparison and observation, we can see that Li hinted at a lot of new foreign policy ideas in his first government work report. For those interested in China’s foreign policy, these are points deserving special attention.
China's Central Bank Allows Its Currency More Volatility (2014-03-16)
(New York Times, By David Barboza) In the latest sign that China is loosening its tight grip over the economy, the government said that the value of its currency would now be allowed to fluctuate more widely against the United States dollar.
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