Roberto Abraham Scaruffi

Sunday, 22 April 2012


Weekly Report from Taiwan Security Research (Apr. 22, 2012)
For full text, click on the title or visit the TSR web page at taiwansecurity.org
Bo Xilai's Ouster and China's Leadership Succession
China Premier Calls for End to Corruption
(New York Times, Apr. 17, 2012) Prime Minister Wen Jiabao issued a new call on Monday for the government to end a culture of graft lest it lead to the end of Communist rule.
Chinese Infighting Widens with New Probe into Politburo Security Chief (AP, Apr. 20, 2012) China's leaders want Bo Xilai's downfall seen as a blow against corruption — not as part of a power struggle. But with a second, even higher-ranking Politburo member now suspected to be under pressure, it will become difficult to avoid the perception of all-out infighting.
Master of the Media Spotlight Is Now Its Victim in China By Edward Wong and Jonathan Ansfield (New York Times, Apr. 22, 2012) As it announced the purge, the party unleashed the full arsenal of its propaganda machine against Mr. Bo, pressing news organizations across the nation into an extraordinary campaign urging support for the party’s decision to oust Mr. Bo, editors and media executives say.
Beijing’s Cracked Consensus By Christopher K. Johnson(Foreign Affairs, Apr. 18, 2012) Bo's removal does not open the door to substantial reform in the near term. In fact, eager to cauterize the wound of Bo's expulsion, the leadership sent an unambiguous signal in an authoritative commentary in the party's flagship newspaper last week, reminding cadres to "stick to the overall work principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability" and urging them to "focus their attention on economic and social development."
Three Questions for Beijing By Minxin Pei(Wall Street Journal, Apr. 15, 2012) Leadership instability would have a tremendous cost not only for Chinese themselves, but also for the rest of the world, both politically and economically. So it is time for the whole range of China’s interlocutors to pose some tough questions to Beijing.
Bo Xilai and China’s Corrupt Secrets By David Ignatius(Washington Post, Apr. 21, 2012) The Bo Xilai affair offers a reality check for anyone who’s worried that a rising China will supplant the United States anytime soon.
Power Shift in China—Part I By Cheng Li
(YaleGlobal, Apr. 16, 2012) Cheng Li points to three trends in Chinese leadership: Leaders are not as strong as their factions; powerful special interests erode governance; and while the country is strong the ruling party remains weak.
Power Shift in China—Part III By Susan Shirk(YaleGlobal, Apr. 20, 2012) China’s leaders, recognizing that corruption and inequality are threats to the regime, may back reforms, which could favor foreign investors and large numbers of Chinese while weakening state industries, elites and other vested interests. However, an open process won’t curtail nationalism and could even make China more assertive on the world stage.
Sino-Philippine Standoff in South China Sea
Amid Standoff with China, Philippines Hold War Games with U.S.
(New York Times, Apr. 17, 20120 Against a backdrop of tension between Manila and Beijing, the Philippines and the United States began joint military exercises that will include mock beach invasions along coastlines facing China.
China Asks Manila to Remove Ship from Shoal
(AP, Apr. 17, 2012) China asked the Philippines to withdraw a coast guard ship and an archaeological research vessel from a disputed shoal and ignored a Philippine proposal to bring the problem to a U.N.-linked tribunal for arbitration.
China Top Military Paper Warns of Armed Confrontation Over Seas
(Reuters, Apr. 21, 2012) The commentary in China's Liberation Army Daily falls short of a formal government statement, but marks the harshest high-level warning yet from Beijing about tensions with the Philippines over disputed seas where both countries have recently sent ships to assert their claims.
North Korea Rocket Launch Failed
U.N. Council to Expand North Korea Sanctions
(New York Times, Apr. 17, 2012) The United Nations Security Council officially censured North Korea over the failed rocket launching of a satellite last week and had ordered its sanctions committee to expand the blacklist of North Korean goods, companies and individuals connected to that country’s nuclear and missile programs.
North Korea’s Lessons for (Not) Building an Atomic Bomb By Jacques E. C. Hymans (Foreign Affairs, Apr. 16, 2012) Institutional dysfunction will slow or halt North Korea’s further progress towards an operational nuclear arsenal.
This Time, a Less Predictable Pyongyang By Choe Sang-hun(New York Times, Apr. 19, 2012) The main difference between 2009 and now is that, back then, North Korea acted as if it knew exactly what it was doing under Kim Jong-il, but this time, we don’t see such a strong control tower in evidence in Pyongyang.
Cross-Strait Issues
Constitution a Starting Point for Talks: Hsieh
(Taipei Times, Apr. 16, 2012) The Republic of China Constitution could serve as a basis for the development of domestic consensus and ending partisan bickering, former premier Frank Hsieh of the Democratic Progressive Party said.
DPP Has No Need to Formulate New China Policy: Wu
(Taipei Times, Apr. 19, 2012) DPP does not need to change its China policy and it should not give up on Taiwanese independence if Beijing asks it to do so, DPP chairperson candidate Wu Rong-i said.
U.S. Policy and Sino-U.S. Engagement
US Experts Say Taiwan a Vital Interest
(Taipei Times, Apr. 19, 2012) US academics emphasized the importance of Taiwan economically and strategically to the US in its rebalancing strategy to return to Asia and said more needed to be done to strengthen bilateral ties.
US Expert Poses ‘Dramatic Question’ about Taiwan By William Lowther (Taipei Times, Apr. 20, 2012) Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution asked the conference—organized by the National Bureau of Asian Research—to consider if the US needed to “weaken” its defense commitment to Taiwan.
How Australia Sees America By Eddie Walsh(The Diplomat, Apr. 14, 2012) For Australia, we don’t have to be linear in the way we think about relationships between trade policy interests and strategic outcomes. The world is complicated and it doesn’t just simply revolve around a simple exchange of economic benefits for political favors.
Power Shift in China—Part II By Stapleton Roy(YaleGlobal, Apr. 18, 2012) Renewed US interest in East Asia is intended not to contain China but restore regional confidence. So far, the relationship between China and the US under the Obama administration has been a cautious dance, one designed for a gradual building of trust.
China Leaders Less Bullish on Global Rise: Survey
(AFP, Apr. 20, 2012) Despite the confidence of China's public, the Asian power's elite is becoming less certain that the country will surpass the United States as the top global power, a major survey said.
U.S. and China Engage in Cyber War Games By Nick Hopkins(Guardian, Apr. 16, 2012) U.S. and Chinese officials take part in war games in bid to prevent military escalation from cyber attacks.
PLA, Military Balance and Arms Sales
Russia and China Boost Arms Spending, US Cuts Back
(Guardian, Apr. 18, 2012) Russia is now the third-biggest spender on arms after the US and China, but Washington outspends Beijing five to one, and Moscow’s spending is half China’s.
Taiwan Faces Balance of Naval Capability Crisis By J. Michael Cole(Taipei Times, Apr. 19, 2012) A backlog of costly arms acquisitions by Taiwan could be forcing the navy to cut back on requests for frigates from the US.
Taiwan Plans to Buy ‘Four Warships from US’
(AFP, Apr. 22, 2012) Taiwan plans to purchase four warships from the United States as part of the island's efforts to modernise its forces and offset the perceived military threat from China, local media reported.
Landing Craft Debuts in Han Kuang Beach Drill
(Taipei Times, Apr. 20, 2012) The military conducted two drills on beaches in southern Taiwan, with one of them featuring a newly deployed locally made landing craft for the first time in an exercise, officials said.
Taiwan's Domestic Issues and Foreign Relations
Jockeying Begins for Taiwan’s Opposition
(China Real Time Report, Apr. 20, 2012) The race for chairman of Taiwan’s opposition Democratic Progressive Party this year has turned into a battle of moderates versus hardliners, as the party continues to search for a China policy in the wake of defeat in this year’s presidential election.
Human Rights Report Sparks Media Concern
(China Post, Apr. 21, 2012) Media professionals and academics said they were concerned about elements of Taiwan's first human rights report based on U.N. conventions, which was released earlier in the day.
KMT Agrees Ma Should Report to Legislative Yuan
(Taipei Times, Apr. 21, 2012) In a move that could establish a constitutional precedent, the KMT conditionally agreed to an opposition-led proposal that President Ma Ying-jeou should present a national report to the legislature.
Ma Urges Shedding of ‘Protectionist Mindset’
(China Post, Apr. 20, 2012) President Ma Ying-jeou called for Taiwan to shed its “protectionist mindset,” one roadblock to its global competitiveness.
China's Rise and Its Domestic Issues
China at “Rare” Moment for Reforms: Central Bank Report
(Reuters, Apr. 17, 2012) China is at a promising moment for speeding up interest rate and exchange rate reforms, the central bank’s statistics department said in a report.
The Not-So-Great Firewall of China By Rebecca Mackinnon(Foreign Policy, Apr. 17, 2012) Thanks to the Internet in general and social media in particular, the Chinese people now have a mechanism to hold authorities accountable for wrongdoing -- at least sometimes -- without any actual political or legal reforms having taken place.
Regional Issues
India Says It Successfully Tests Nuclear-Capable Missile
(New York Times, Apr. 20, 2012) India said it had successfully launched a missile with nuclear capability and a 3,100-mile range, giving it the ability to strike Beijing and Shanghai.
Signs of an Asian Arms Buildup in India’s Missile Test By Heather Timmons and Jim Yardley (New York Times, Apr. 20, 2012) India’s successful test of a long-range ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead is the latest escalation of an arms race in Asia.
Vietnam Vessels Entered Taiwan Waters: CGA
(China Post, Apr. 21, 2012) The Coast Guard Administration confirmed that Vietnamese patrol vessels twice intruded into Taiwan-controlled waters in the South China Sea last month and were forced to leave the country's territory by coast guard forces.
China to Return to Peaceful Rise: Expert
(Taipei Times, Apr. 22, 2012) After seeing that its assertive measures have harmed its national interests, China is expected to partially return to its previous policy to improve relations with neighboring countries, cooperate more with the US and be patient on the Taiwan issue, an expert said.
Taiwan Protests Tokyo’s Plan to Buy Disputed Islands
(China Post, Apr. 18, 2012) Taiwan's foreign ministry issued a protest in the wake of a recent statement by a Japanese politician indicating his intention to buy several uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that are claimed by both countries.

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Posted by Roberto Abraham Scaruffi at 16:01