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Firefighters at the site of an explosion near government buildings in Oslo on July 22
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What the Norway Attack Could Mean for Europe
At least 17 people have died and more have been injured in an explosion in downtown Oslo and a shooting at a Labor Party youth camp outside the Norwegian capital. Norwegian police arrested the shooter at the camp and believe he is connected with the explosion, though others could be involved.
The significance of the events in Norway for the rest of Europe will depend largely on who is responsible, and the identity of the culprits is still unclear. However, STRATFOR can extrapolate the possible consequences of the attacks based on several scenarios.
The first scenario is that grassroots Islamist militants based in Norway are behind these seemingly connected attacks. Grassroots jihadist groups are already assumed to exist across Europe, and this assumption — along with previous attacks — has bolstered far-right political parties' popularity across the Continent. Many center-right politicians have also begun raising anti-immigrant policy issues in order to distract from the ongoing economic austerity measures brought about by the European economic crisis. If grassroots Islamist militants are found to be the culprits in Norway, it will simply reinforce the current European political trend that favors the far right. That said, some far-right parties, particularly in Northern Europe, could get a popularity boost sufficient to push them into the political mainstream, and possibly into government.
If an individual, grassroots or organized domestic group with far-right or neo-Nazi leanings perpetrated the attack, the significance for the rest of Europe will not be large. It could lead to a temporary loss of popularity for the far right, but long-term repercussions for the far right are unlikely since these parties have begun tempering their platforms in order to attract a wider constituency.
There is also the possibility that the attacks are the work of a skilled but disturbed individual with grievances against the Labor Party. This possibility would have few long-ranging repercussions beyond a reworking of domestic security procedures in Norway.
Another scenario is that the attack was carried out by an international group which may have entered the country some time ago. Regardless of the time frame, if the culprits crossed a border to get into Norway, other European countries will feel very vulnerable; Norway is Europe's northern terminus, and if international militants can get to Norway, they can get to anywhere in Europe. This vulnerability could severely damage the Schengen Agreement, once a symbolic pillar of Europe's unity, which has been under attack in the last several months. The agreement allows visa-free travel between the 25 countries in the Schengen Area (most of which are EU members, but the Schengen Area does include some non-EU members like Norway and Switzerland). The agreement came under pressure when Italy threatened to allow migrants fleeing the Libyan conflict and Tunisian political unrest to gain temporary resident status in order to cross into France. It was Rome's way of forcing the rest of Europe to help it with the influx of migrants. The solution proposed by France and Italy was to essentially establish temporary borders "under very exceptional circumstances." Later, Denmark reimposed border controls, supposedly due to an increase in cross-border crime.
The attack in Norway, if it involved cross-border movements, could therefore damage or even end the Schengen Agreement. Other European countries, particularly those where the far right is strong or where center-right parties have adopted an anti-immigrant message, could push for further amendments to the pact.
A transnational militant plot against a European country in the contemporary context could also be significant for European defense policy. When the 2004 Madrid attack and 2005 London attack happened, many in Europe argued that the attacks were a result of European governments' support for U.S. military operations in the Middle East. This is no longer really the case for Europe, although European forces are still in Afghanistan. It is much more difficult to blame Europe's alliance with the United States for this attack. As such, Europe could very well be motivated to take ongoing efforts to increase European defense coordination seriously. Current efforts are being led by Poland, which is doing so mainly because it wants to increase security against Russia's resurgence, not because of global militancy. The problem with Warsaw's plan is that it has little genuine support in Western Europe, other than France. An attack on Norway could, however, provide the kind of impetus necessary for Europe to feel threatened by global events.
The last scenario is that the attack is linked to Norway's involvement in the campaign in Libya. If the Libyan government is somehow connected to the bombing and/or shooting, the rest of Europe will rally behind Norway and increase their efforts in Libya. This scenario would essentially close off the opening in negotiations prompted by a recent move by Paris and other European governments saying they would be open to Moammar Gadhafi's remaining in Libya.
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At least 80 killed at Norway youth conference after Oslo bombing, police say
By Michael Birnbaum,
Two apparently coordinated attacks hit Norway on Friday, with a shooting at a youth political conference outside the capital of Oslo killing at least 80 people and a massive explosion in the government district of Oslo leaving at least seven dead, according to Norwegian police.
The attacks, which added up to the largest in Norway since World War II, stunned a country better known for the Nobel Peace Prize than for violence and seemed sure to force a cultural shift in an open society in which government buildings are lightly protected.
A 32-year-old Norwegian man had been arrested in the shooting and “is suspected of having some right-wing sympathies,” said Police Directorate spokesman Runar Kvernen. “The police are now working with the theory that he is involved in both of the tragedies today. He was observed, the same person, the same outfit, at both scenes.”
“Whether he had helpers, that we don’t know,” he said. “He is the main track for the police right now.”
The blast struck around 3:30 p.m. local time near the 17-story building that holds the prime minister’s office — he was not there at the time — blowing out almost every window and setting off a billowing fire at the nearby oil ministry.
Two hours later, a man dressed in a police uniform opened fire on Utoya Island, 25 miles northwest of the capital, where the ruling Labor Party was holding an annual conference for young people, police said.
“Ambulances and helicopters are flying nonstop,” Kvernen said. “The losses are quite huge.”
Police originally reported the death toll at the youth conference at 10, but early Saturday they said they had discovered many more victims.
Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg was rushed to a secret location in the aftermath of the blast but spoke to reporters late Friday.
“I have a message to whoever attacked us. It’s a message from all of Norway,” he said. “You will not destroy us. You will not destroy our democracy.”
But many residents of Oslo said the attacks would probably have a deep impact. For years, the most fortified building in town has been the U.S. Embassy — the subject of eye-rolling from those who thought the security measures were unnecessary.
“This is one of those events that will change everything,” Christopher Wright, 35, of Oslo said by telephone. He was at a bakery a thousand feet from the government buildings when the explosion happened.
Several analysts said a coordinated attack of such a caliber would have required sophistication and preparation.
Chatter on online jihadist forums praising the attacks started almost immediately afterward, terrorism analysts said, but claims of responsibility were soon retracted.
It was not immediately clear what kind of explosives were used in the bombing or where they had been placed, but a charred, damaged vehicle stood on its side near the blast site. Huge clouds of smoke streamed out of the oil ministry building for much of the afternoon, and television stations broadcast images of crowds of office workers running through the streets, with documents and broken glass littering the ground.
A witness of the attack on the island told a Norwegian television station that he had seen at least 20 bodies. Norwegian television broadcast images of people swimming away from the island and of bodies lying on the shore. The small island is a third of a mile from shore, with no bridge to connect it to the mainland.
The Norwegian news agency NTB said former prime minister Gro Harlem Brundtland had been present at the conference Friday and that Stoltenberg had been scheduled to speak there Saturday.
Norway saw an increased level of far-right extremism in 2010, a trend that is expected to continue this year, according to a Norwegian Police Security Service Annual Threat Assessment. The report also said that “there are indications of contact” between far-right Norwegian extremists and organized criminal groups, which could increase their potential for violence.
There have been threats against Norway in the past, but analysts have long seen it as at less risk than other Scandinavian countries. The most recent attack in the region was in Sweden in December, when explosions hit Stockholm; in one of the blasts, a suspected bomber killed himself and injured two other people in a central area of the city. The suspect had made recordings condemning Sweden’s involvement in Afghanistan.
Norway has also contributed to Afghanistan, and it has taken a major role in the NATO-led effort to protect civilians in Libya, sending several F-16 jets that had been carrying out 10 percent of the strikes on the country since March, according to the Norwegian air force. The aircraft are scheduled to return home at the end of the month.
This month, Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi threatened Europe with suicide bombings as revenge for the NATO campaign.
Norway had also filed charges last week against an Iraqi-born cleric, Mullah Krekar, a founder of the Kurdish militant group Ansar al-Islam, for allegedly threatening Norwegian officials with death if he was deported.
The U.S. ambassador to Norway, Barry White, said in a telephone interview that investigators were still assembling information about the attacks and had not reached any conclusions on who was responsible.
“They’re still looking at it,” White said. “Oftentimes the early answers are the wrong ones.”
White said the United States has offered to assist the Norwegian government.
“It’s a tragedy,” he said. “One of the things this demonstrates is there’s no place that is safe from a potential incident of this nature. Norway is considered a fairly safe place, and it is, but this demonstrates that things can happen anywhere.”
In Washington, President Obama expressed his condolences to Norway and offered U.S. support as Norwegian authorities investigate the incidents, which he described as terrorist attacks.
Birnbaum reported from Berlin. Staff writer Greg Miller in Washington and special correspondent Karla Adam in London contributed to this report.
